Capacity Limits... in the winter

[storewanderer]

As a country we have not been complying with all the rules. Far from it. The U.S. represents only 4% of the world's population but more than 25% of the deaths. Just yesterday at a political rally in Georgia many people in the audience were not wearing masks. They were not social distancing at all. It's hard to believe that these super spreader events are still happening with all the evidence showing how dangerous it is.

Also the comparisons with past flu seasons is irrelevant.

Last year 38 million flu cases and 22,000 deaths.

This year Covid alone so far is 14.7 million and 281,000 DEATHS as of today.

This is much more deadly.

Given the rules are established state by state, I think we need to worry more about what is happening in each state and how each state is controlling (or not) the virus spread. Frankly, nobody seems to have any new ideas at this time, which we need desperately. It is the same old tried and failed ideas, re-tried, with a few new twists and turns. You would think with so many states trying to figure out how to combat this virus, some of the states would figure out some successful strategies. This is just like we talk on here of national grocers who try to centralize everything and fail- vs. letting the regions have smart people who figure out what works in each region and then the best ideas rising up to the top and ultimately being applied nationally in some form.


You may want to look a little more closely at how these COVID tests work and the science behind the tests and the processing of the specimen before getting too alarmed by the number of positive tests at this point in time. First, the PCR test for COVID does not distinguish between active and inactive virus. This is why so many people are testing positive with no symptoms. So then I have no symptoms but test positive due to inactive COVID in me, then because of my positive test my whole household has to go get tested too. Many people have inactive COVID in them just from being out in public. The death rate is concerning and exceeds prior seasons of flu deaths, however I expect that rate to continue to come down as the medical field gets a better understanding of the virus.

Georgia is one of the states with no mask mandate...

I am more concerned with what is happening closer to me. Why are cases skyrocketing in CA and NV given all of the rules, restrictions, and closures and what in my observation seems to be people really doing a good job complying with the rules on masks, capacity, etc.? We need some new ideas.

[klkla]

Given the rules are established state by state, I think we need to worry more about what is happening in each state and how each state is controlling (or not) the virus spread.

This is the problem. The Federal government is ignoring this problem right now. That is why our death rate is so much higher than the rest of the developed world.

Frankly, nobody seems to have any new ideas at this time, which we need desperately.

We don't need any new ideas. We need to come together as a nation and do our part to stop the spread. Wear a friggin' mask. Practice social distancing.

You may want to look a little more closely at how these COVID tests work and the science behind the tests and the processing of the specimen before getting too alarmed by the number of positive tests at this point in time.

I am not alarmed by the number of cases per se. I am alarmed by the death rate. I am actually surprised that you're not. The number of Covid cases is less than half the number of flu cases last year but the death rate is more than ten times higher. You can deflect the facts all you want but the death statistics don't lie.

Georgia is one of the states with no mask mandate...

I am more concerned with what is happening closer to me. Why are cases skyrocketing in CA and NV given all of the rules, restrictions, and closures and what in my observation seems to be people really doing a good job complying with the rules on masks, capacity, etc.?

Georgia is certainly part of the problem. The largest airline hub in the world is in Atlanta. Airline traffic has been building lately, especially over the Thanksgiving weekend, and think of all the people that go through there everyday and how many asymptomatic people are traveling back to CA and NV and transmitting the virus as an example. The case counts and death counts are lagging indicators. We won't begin to see the Thanksgiving case numbers for another week or so and the death cases for a couple weeks after that.

People are not doing a good job of complying with the rules. A lot of people are still going to private parties and other events where they are not practicing social distancing and/or wearing masks. While these are mostly young people that are healthy and will never have any symptoms they too are asymptomatic and end up spreading it to older people and people with preexisting conditions who get sick and a lot of those will die.

So again... as it relates to this thread... we need to do the simple things that scientists have been telling us to do all along until the vaccines can be distributed. This is going to be a very hard time. We are likely to see at least another 60,000 deaths before the end of the year and many more next year.

[veteran+]

That is what I look at: Deaths per 100,000

Also, hospitalizations per 100,000 as a precursor to possible fatalities.

Imperfect California has only 14 States that have a LOWER death rate than its own (50 per 100,000).

The other States (at an alarming rate) are suffering increased death rates. Florida will soon surpass California total deaths and Texas already has.

If there has been a cohesive and uniform National strategy (strongly enforced) from the beginning we would be in a different place today (even with adding NEW science learnings as the virus progressed).

Wear the damn mask and stop the conflating, misinformation, conspiracy, propaganda, politics, false equivalents.

And please stop disseminating science and medical advice when you are NOT Doctors or Scientists.

Just sayin......................

[klkla]

The other States (at an alarming rate) are suffering increased death rates. Florida will soon surpass California total deaths and Texas already has.

That's crazy when you consider how much bigger California's population is compared to Florida and Texas. CA population is almost double FL and 36% bigger than Texas.

[storewanderer]

We don't need any new ideas. We need to come together as a nation and do our part to stop the spread. Wear a friggin' mask. Practice social distancing.

I am not alarmed by the number of cases per se. I am alarmed by the death rate. I am actually surprised that you're not. The number of Covid cases is less than half the number of flu cases last year but the death rate is more than ten times higher. You can deflect the facts all you want but the death statistics don't lie.

Georgia is certainly part of the problem. The largest airline hub in the world is in Atlanta. Airline traffic has been building lately, especially over the Thanksgiving weekend, and think of all the people that go through there everyday and how many asymptomatic people are traveling back to CA and NV and transmitting the virus as an example. The case counts and death counts are lagging indicators. We won't begin to see the Thanksgiving case numbers for another week or so and the death cases for a couple weeks after that.

People are not doing a good job of complying with the rules. A lot of people are still going to private parties and other events where they are not practicing social distancing and/or wearing masks.

So again... as it relates to this thread... we need to do the simple things that scientists have been telling us to do all along until the vaccines can be distributed. This is going to be a very hard time. We are likely to see at least another 60,000 deaths before the end of the year and many more next year.

I agree the death rate is concerning (however it isn't 10x the usual flu/pneumonia annual deaths... about 4x... according to data buried on CDC site), but I also think part of that situation was the health field did not know how to treat this virus and as they learn more about how to treat it, that should start coming down. At least- we better hope. Because things cannot continue like this.

I know we see these reports of people not complying but I am not observing that sort of thing in person. Maybe it is because I am not going to gatherings, parties, restaurants, airplanes, or events- I am going to stores. And I see people complying well with these rules. The issue is these rules are not working well enough. If your only idea is that everyone needs to wear a mask (they already are and have been for months now in California and Nevada...), then we are screwed, because it isn't working well enough... we need more precautions to be taken. I am not saying get rid of the current rules- absolutely keep them (we cannot afford to roll back rules at this point even if it is questionable if they work or not)- but we need more rules that actually will work. Lockdowns already failed once earlier this year. What will make watered down lockdowns work this time? It seems largely symbolic at this point. I guess the latest new thing is lower capacity limits- we will see if that gets us anywhere.

Air traffic ebbs and flows- most days it is still down 60+% from last year. You can look at that here: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

[Alpha8472]

The problem is that people are catching the virus at places where they let their guard down. They catch it at home or at gatherings at friend's houses. They are eating or drinking unmasked at a house and they catch it there. The houses have poor ventilation and people are not wearing masks. All it takes is 15 minutes cumulative per day.

The spread at stores is minimal unless those people in the stores have their noses uncovered. Wearing a mask and having your nose uncovered is as bad as not wearing a mask at all. I work in a pharmacy and constantly see people with their noses uncovered. My sister store's pharmacy has 2 people who caught coronavirus. We require masks at all times, but it is obvious that the people with their noses uncovered spread this to them. Doctors in hospitals wear masks and face shields, because the coronavirus can enter through the eyes. A mask is not enough. You need eye protection. I wear a face shield at all times at work. At the end of the day, my face shield is covered in splatter. People talk to you and constantly spray you with spittle.

[klkla]

I agree the death rate is concerning (however it isn't 10x the usual flu/pneumonia annual deaths... about 4x... according to data buried on CDC site)

That deflection does not change the point. The actual number of flu deaths were 24,000 but some cases may not have been diagnosed which means there is a 'possibility' that up to 64,000 might have died per the CDC.

But this is why it's a deflection on your part: We are going to have more than 64,000 Covid deaths this month alone!

[storewanderer]

I agree the death rate is concerning (however it isn't 10x the usual flu/pneumonia annual deaths... about 4x... according to data buried on CDC site)

That deflection does not change the point. The actual number of flu deaths were 24,000 but some cases may not have been diagnosed which means there is a 'possibility' that up to 64,000 might have died per the CDC.

But this is why it's a deflection on your part: We are going to have more than 64,000 Covid deaths this month alone!

Well, as I said, all you can do, is what you are comfortable doing... avoid crowded places if possible, and take precautions. Stay away from people you see who aren't taking precautions...

There is a lot of egg on a lot of faces at this point, over how things are not improving and a lot of blame is inaccurately being thrown toward the general public who for the most part is doing a great job trying to do what they are being told to do to be safe, and comply with these rules.

Without new ideas to supplement the current rules, things will only get worse. My guess is once the vaccine is widely available to the public, that will signal the end of this whole "rules" thing and the directive will be if you are concerned to get the vaccine.

[pseudo3d]

There is a lot of egg on a lot of faces at this point, over how things are not improving and a lot of blame is inaccurately being thrown toward the general public who for the most part is doing a great job trying to do what they are being told to do to be safe, and comply with these rules.

Correct. First the CDC said that we need to do social distancing and shut things down for two weeks to flatten the curve, then it became indefinite. They also said masks aren't going to do anything, then it became a requirement in place of business. Meanwhile, masks are becoming a major litter problem (simply thrown away in normal trash, or in parking lots) just about everywhere (so much for biohazards). The constantly changing rules and advice, along with the ever-evolving time limit is what is causing suspicion and mask/restriction backlash.

A lot of people have been traveling to the states that don't or didn't have mask requirements and they're bringing it back into the communities that do have the requirements.

Anyone that could afford it fled the big cities to smaller (less restrictive and/or less enforced) towns and areas when the major lockdowns hit the big cities. There's not really a way around that unless you ban travel outside of major cities, which would be a direct violation of the Constitution and quickly be shot down by a judge.

[veteran+]

1. As NEW scientific findings came forth, guidelines had to change.

2. CDC and others were suppressed as was the HHS.

Can't make it more simpler than that.

No amount of spin or blame can change 1 or 2.