Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by jamcool »

It wouldn’t surprise me if Dillard’s picked up some of sites
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by rwsandiego »

jamcool wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 8:46 am It wouldn’t surprise me if Dillard’s picked up some of sites
I'd like to see them pick up some Carson's, Bergner's, and Boston Store sites. Dillard's is similar to back-in-the-day Bergner's and Carson's. Unfortunately, they would not keep the Carson, Pirie, Scott name and that's a shame.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by architect »

rwsandiego wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 9:48 am
jamcool wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 8:46 am It wouldn’t surprise me if Dillard’s picked up some of sites
I'd like to see them pick up some Carson's, Bergner's, and Boston Store sites. Dillard's is similar to back-in-the-day Bergner's and Carson's. Unfortunately, they would not keep the Carson, Pirie, Scott name and that's a shame.
Honestly, I think that Dillards has generally avoided moving into the more "urban" northern markets simply due to the fact that much of their merchandising would have to be adjusted to appeal to shoppers in these areas. Their current store base is generally is markets which cleanly lie within the South or Midwest. Chicago/Milwaukee/Twin Cities are oddities in that their demographics are much more similar to the East Coast, yet they are essentially oases within a more culturally conservative region of the country. I am somewhat surprised that Dillards has not entered Indianapolis, however.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by pseudo3d »

architect wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 4:40 pm
rwsandiego wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 9:48 am
jamcool wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 8:46 am It wouldn’t surprise me if Dillard’s picked up some of sites
I'd like to see them pick up some Carson's, Bergner's, and Boston Store sites. Dillard's is similar to back-in-the-day Bergner's and Carson's. Unfortunately, they would not keep the Carson, Pirie, Scott name and that's a shame.
Honestly, I think that Dillards has generally avoided moving into the more "urban" northern markets simply due to the fact that much of their merchandising would have to be adjusted to appeal to shoppers in these areas. Their current store base is generally is markets which cleanly lie within the South or Midwest. Chicago/Milwaukee/Twin Cities are oddities in that their demographics are much more similar to the East Coast, yet they are essentially oases within a more culturally conservative region of the country. I am somewhat surprised that Dillards has not entered Indianapolis, however.
Years ago someone on Labelscar pointed out that Dillard's "doesn't really do well north of the Mason-Dixon line" or something like that. They have fairly strong markets throughout the South (and Colorado) from the urban areas to the suburbs, but in places like St. Louis or Akron, it's far more weak.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by Super S »

pseudo3d wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 7:16 pm
architect wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 4:40 pm
rwsandiego wrote: April 22nd, 2018, 9:48 am
I'd like to see them pick up some Carson's, Bergner's, and Boston Store sites. Dillard's is similar to back-in-the-day Bergner's and Carson's. Unfortunately, they would not keep the Carson, Pirie, Scott name and that's a shame.
Honestly, I think that Dillards has generally avoided moving into the more "urban" northern markets simply due to the fact that much of their merchandising would have to be adjusted to appeal to shoppers in these areas. Their current store base is generally is markets which cleanly lie within the South or Midwest. Chicago/Milwaukee/Twin Cities are oddities in that their demographics are much more similar to the East Coast, yet they are essentially oases within a more culturally conservative region of the country. I am somewhat surprised that Dillards has not entered Indianapolis, however.
Years ago someone on Labelscar pointed out that Dillard's "doesn't really do well north of the Mason-Dixon line" or something like that. They have fairly strong markets throughout the South (and Colorado) from the urban areas to the suburbs, but in places like St. Louis or Akron, it's far more weak.
Dillard's has stores as far north as Montana and Idaho, but has avoided many other northern states as well as both Washington and Oregon. For that matter, Bon-Ton didn't have much of a presence here either.

It seems like Dillard's could work to some extent in areas where not only Bon-Ton has left, but also Macy's to some extent.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by mbz321 »

The department store business model is dead. I don't see anyone picking up these locations en masse. Maybe a higher end department store might work in the strongest malls, but Macy's, Dillards, and every other middle to upper-middle class department store will surely follow the same death in time.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by storewanderer »

mbz321 wrote: April 24th, 2018, 9:59 pm The department store business model is dead. I don't see anyone picking up these locations en masse. Maybe a higher end department store might work in the strongest malls, but Macy's, Dillards, and every other middle to upper-middle class department store will surely follow the same death in time.
Dillards model is different than the others. They are much more controlled on price. They don't run many sales and when they do run them, if you blink, you will miss them. They don't advertise much. They do not hassle you to sign up for a store credit card every time you buy something. They survive on much lower sales volumes since what they are selling is at higher margin due to the lack of sales. They support stores in smaller rural markets/smaller malls in places like Shawnee, OK or Bartlesville, OK or Las Cruces, NM.

I am not necessarily sure whether or not the model Dillards has is going to survive long term, but I will say this, here in Reno, their store is doing MUCH better now than it was a few years ago. What happened? The conditions, service, and merchandising at the Reno Macy's have literally nosedived during that time period. Conversely, the Dillards has become more fully stocked (store was looking pretty empty a few years ago) and foot traffic has clearly increased. When they run their sales on New Year's, or their holiday VIP night, the store is packed and does a ton of sales volume.

I have also found the quality of their product offering to be much better than the others for dress shirts and such, but I typically only buy at 65% off plus extra 40 or extra 50% off.

It is funny back when Gottschalks was liquidating out west, I was disappointed that Bon Ton did not buy them because it seemed like they would be a great fit. I guess the end result would have been the same, now...
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by buckguy »

Dillards has been absolute failure in the Midwest--Cleveland and Cincinnati have seen a lot of store closings and the remaining stores were neglected for many years. Dillard also has its own problems, generally---a declining sales trend for many years. They operate as a piggy bank for the Dillard family---the company has been continually buying back stock which means it's increasingly easier to pay a decent dividend to the Dillard family. Their onetime main attraction to Wall Street was their centralized buying which meant that the stores weren't very interesting other than a few upscale "flagship" locations. Their stores have always been bereft of service--that seemed to be the first thing to go when they bought other chains and the merchandising isn't very inventive (all that centralized buying)--a lot of boring store brand merchandise. i doubt that they have the spare capital to buy many or even any Bon Ton stores and they'd probably end up closing half of them if they did.

If anyone would be close to the Bon Ton model and I'm thinking the eastern Bon Ton & Elder Beerman stores, it would be Belk, but they have shown no inclination to go into northern markets and have sold stores in those locations when they've come with acquisitions.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by arizonaguy »

buckguy wrote: April 26th, 2018, 11:22 am Dillards has been absolute failure in the Midwest--Cleveland and Cincinnati have seen a lot of store closings and the remaining stores were neglected for many years. Dillard also has its own problems, generally---a declining sales trend for many years. They operate as a piggy bank for the Dillard family---the company has been continually buying back stock which means it's increasingly easier to pay a decent dividend to the Dillard family. Their onetime main attraction to Wall Street was their centralized buying which meant that the stores weren't very interesting other than a few upscale "flagship" locations. Their stores have always been bereft of service--that seemed to be the first thing to go when they bought other chains and the merchandising isn't very inventive (all that centralized buying)--a lot of boring store brand merchandise. i doubt that they have the spare capital to buy many or even any Bon Ton stores and they'd probably end up closing half of them if they did.

If anyone would be close to the Bon Ton model and I'm thinking the eastern Bon Ton & Elder Beerman stores, it would be Belk, but they have shown no inclination to go into northern markets and have sold stores in those locations when they've come with acquisitions.
Good analysis.

I was curious if Belk, Boscov's, Dillard's, or Stage would be a good fit for any of the Bon Ton stores.

I'd imagine some Carsons locations may be attractive to the right retailer.
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Re: Bon Ton Stores headed on the downswing

Post by rwsandiego »

arizonaguy wrote: April 26th, 2018, 1:59 pm
buckguy wrote: April 26th, 2018, 11:22 am Dillards has been absolute failure in the Midwest--Cleveland and Cincinnati have seen a lot of store closings and the remaining stores were neglected for many years. Dillard also has its own problems, generally---a declining sales trend for many years. They operate as a piggy bank for the Dillard family---the company has been continually buying back stock which means it's increasingly easier to pay a decent dividend to the Dillard family. Their onetime main attraction to Wall Street was their centralized buying which meant that the stores weren't very interesting other than a few upscale "flagship" locations. Their stores have always been bereft of service--that seemed to be the first thing to go when they bought other chains and the merchandising isn't very inventive (all that centralized buying)--a lot of boring store brand merchandise. i doubt that they have the spare capital to buy many or even any Bon Ton stores and they'd probably end up closing half of them if they did.

If anyone would be close to the Bon Ton model and I'm thinking the eastern Bon Ton & Elder Beerman stores, it would be Belk, but they have shown no inclination to go into northern markets and have sold stores in those locations when they've come with acquisitions.
Good analysis.

I was curious if Belk, Boscov's, Dillard's, or Stage would be a good fit for any of the Bon Ton stores.

I'd imagine some Carsons locations may be attractive to the right retailer.
I could see Von Maur picking up some Carson's locations, such as Randhurst, Orland Square, Hawthorn, Evergreen Park, and Fox Valley. Maybe even some Boston Store (Mayfair and Bayshore) or Bergner's (Cherryvale) stores too.

Not sure whether Nordstrom is interested in a South Suburban location, but Orland Square could be a good fit for them if they wanted to expand down there.
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