Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

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pseudo3d
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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by pseudo3d » January 6th, 2018, 7:40 am

wnetmacman wrote:
January 6th, 2018, 6:45 am
pseudo3d wrote:
January 6th, 2018, 6:21 am
Why would Ahold buy SEG? They were the ones to offload BI-LO to LSF in the first place.
Stranger things have indeed happened. Like Albertsons breaking up, only to buy itself back at bargain basement pricing and then buying up Safeway. I'm not writing it off, because anything is possible. Both Albertsons and Kroger have bought themselves back into places they've left or sold off, and done so recently.
With the exception of selling their Alabama stores to Bruno's in 1985, has their ever been any store sales by Albertsons that weren't for pressing financial reasons (i.e. any problems after 1999)? As for Kroger, some of the markets they "re-entered" like Chicago and Milwaukee that time when their stores were sold off the first time (as Kroger) it's been so long that the "statute of limitations" might as well be gone.

Reading about why Ahold sold off BI-LO/Bruno's was because it did have financial reasons, an "accounting error" hit the company with massive fines that nearly ended the U.S. operations. But Ahold hasn't been interested in acquisitions for years (at least large scale ones, I know they bought the Ukrop's stores in 2009). They got Delhaize but that wasn't really up to the U.S. side, and their distinct lack of empire building suggests they might be a takeover candidate, not the other way around.

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by Knight » January 8th, 2018, 8:07 am

Ahold owns responsibility for acquiring Bruno's and merging it into BI-LO. I wonder if BI-LO would be in a better position and still under Ahold's ownership if Bruno's was not acquired.

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by pseudo3d » January 8th, 2018, 9:12 am

Knight wrote:
January 8th, 2018, 8:07 am
Ahold owns responsibility for acquiring Bruno's and merging it into BI-LO. I wonder if BI-LO would be in a better position and still under Ahold's ownership if Bruno's was not acquired.
Better position? Possibly. Still under Ahold's ownership? The accounting scandal would've still happened, and it would've hurt Ahold's U.S. holdings.

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by Knight » January 9th, 2018, 9:36 am

Over a week into 2018 and $475,000,000 in unsecured debt maturing in September, how soon could Southeastern Grocers announce its next round of store closings? (Southeastern Grocers has $425,000,000 due in February 2019.)

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by pseudo3d » January 9th, 2018, 11:00 am

Knight wrote:
January 9th, 2018, 9:36 am
Over a week into 2018 and $475,000,000 in unsecured debt maturing in September, how soon could Southeastern Grocers announce its next round of store closings? (Southeastern Grocers has $425,000,000 due in February 2019.)
I'd say within three months. The first change I think is that SEG will outright sell their distribution centers to C&S and not maintain any exclusivity contracts on them (I think the current agreement is that C&S operates them but only for SEG stores). They'll also pull out of Louisiana completely, and merge MS/AL into the Panhandle region. A handful of Harveys/Fresco y Mas stores end up closing down entirely. If any stores in Louisiana are kept, they'll be in the New Orleans area exclusively, and if any MS stores are kept, they become Harveys. "Down Down" advertising continues but prices creep back up.

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by Knight » January 9th, 2018, 11:09 am

When will the distribution agreement between Southeastern Grocers and C&S Wholesale Grocers expire?

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by wnetmacman » January 9th, 2018, 1:49 pm

Knight wrote:
January 9th, 2018, 11:09 am
When will the distribution agreement between Southeastern Grocers and C&S Wholesale Grocers expire?
About the same time SEG does, most likely....

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by rwsandiego » January 9th, 2018, 9:08 pm

wnetmacman wrote:
January 9th, 2018, 1:49 pm
Knight wrote:
January 9th, 2018, 11:09 am
When will the distribution agreement between Southeastern Grocers and C&S Wholesale Grocers expire?
About the same time SEG does, most likely....
ROFLOL

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by pseudo3d » January 10th, 2018, 8:37 pm

Why do I get the feeling that the longer we have to wait for store closure announcements, the bigger they'll be? Sears already dropped theirs (assuming that things don't fly off the rails in a few months), Albertsons is putting store closures on a slow drip (there's probably store closures we don't even know about, possibly), and Macy's has put out their annual cut list.

I just feel like when we're in for a big bombshell out of SEG. Either they'll pull out of several markets in a futile attempt to restructure, or LSF is going to put SEG on the block. I definitely think the Baton Rouge stores will be closed or sold by year end though. I think that there's something about if a company repairs/reopens stores after a disaster versus not doing it, it says something about the company or the market area. I don't know, I just have a feeling.

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Re: Analyst: SEG will not be around in 5 years

Post by cjd » August 18th, 2018, 7:14 am

Not a big fan of SEG. We never shopped at Winn Dixie much, but I liked the way they were going after the bankruptcy in 2005. They started doing nice remodels in 2008 that weren't over the top but a huge improvement. Then they started the transformational stores, I've been to one and it was fantastic. If they could have slowly kept going that route, they could have turned things around a lot, but they couldn't have afforded to. After SEG bought them, the transformationals stopped. And recently they've started merging everything Winn Dixie brand with the SE Grocers brand which just seems weird. Everyone is like who in the world is SE Grocers? It seems all generic like shopping at some independent affiliated with a chain.

I have to hand it to them, they have been pushing the remodels recently, but please just leave the post 2008 remodel stores alone. They always skip over the stores that haven't been touched since the 90s but want to do the red wall remodel to transformational and other newer redone stores which is pointless. Those decors already look better than the new red decor. If you're going to do the red remodel do it to stores that really need it like those that still have the 90s Marketplace decor or early 2000s purple decor.

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