Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

[Knight]

I don't think the window has closed. To get quality stores, that ship sailed long ago. I can't see Publix getting (or wanting) any. Albertsons would have to make some divestitures in Louisiana (specifically, Baton Rouge and Lafayette) to do it. Kroger wouldn't have to do much at all FTC-wise, as they no longer have significant overlap with WD or Bi-Lo, but as you mention, they seem to only want to expand with Marketplace stores and H-T.

A number of Rouses stores are housed in former Winn Dixie stores. That has been a form of expansion for them recently; Ponchatoula was actually offered to them. I'm not sure of the AL and MS stores, as they don't seem to be heavily expanding there as they are in Louisiana.

LeBlanc's is no more. The only changes left to do were in signage, just due to the time they needed to get them ordered, made and installed.

The pharmacy in Lockport is indeed their only one; Lockport is a bit more isolated than most of their other stores geographically. I wouldn't expect them to expand it further unless the opportunity was really good. They are not a pharmacy operator.

If Publix could acquire quality stores from Southeastern Grocers, they could be BI-LO stores in North Carolina and South Carolina that are in good locations and/or good performers.

Not having a pharmacy beyond one store could hurt Rouse's if Publix expands into Louisiana. Investing into and expanding pharmacy operations is a decision Rouse's will need to make.

[Knight]

Publix DID buy the seven BI-LO stores in Charlotte, NC in September 2013.
In Greenville, SC BI-LO has more stores than Publix, and Kroger has none, so Kroger could buy that market.
As for Albertsons, Lafayette has three Rouses and one remaining Winn-Dixie, which isn't near the other Albertsons but it looks like it's in poor shape. The other Winn-Dixie stores west of the Mississippi aren't exactly winners (Rayne is only 30k square feet), they don't need BR's Winn-Dixie. New Orleans would work, but I'm not confident Albertsons could actually make a good localization of the stores and at best, it's a distraction from the troubled Houston market.

Publix acquired seven BI-LO stores in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, and York County, South Carolina.

Greenville County, South Carolina supermarkets
BI-LO (14 stores; initially started year with 17 stores; 3 stores closed - 5016, 5581, 5704)
Publix (10 stores)
Ingle's (8 stores)
Walmart Neighborhood Market (5 stores)
Food Lion (2 stores)
Lowe's Foods (1 store)

If I were Kroger seeking to expand store count in Greenville County, South Carolina, beyond two Harris Teeter announced in Greenville, I would (1) seek locations for additional Harris Teeter stores; (2) open Kroger Marketplace hypermarket stores; and/or (3) acquire an existing supermarket participant that operates successfully, has store count and market share, and is active in food, pharmacy and fuel. I think Ingle's would be the better acquisition target for Kroger.

[wnetmacman]

If Publix could acquire quality stores from Southeastern Grocers, they could be BI-LO stores in North Carolina and South Carolina that are in good locations and/or good performers.

Not having a pharmacy beyond one store could hurt Rouse's if Publix expands into Louisiana. Investing into and expanding pharmacy operations is a decision Rouse's will need to make.

I don't think, outside of a few select, newer locations, that there are just that many quality stores left.

Publix isn't coming to Louisiana for a long time, and when they do, they need to be ready; folks that don't understand New Orleans don't last. Ask National, A&P and Albertsons. WD does a better job than most, but they still lack compared to Rouses and the other locals in town. If Publix isn't ready to cater to the area, they cannot survive here.

[pseudo3d]

If Publix could acquire quality stores from Southeastern Grocers, they could be BI-LO stores in North Carolina and South Carolina that are in good locations and/or good performers.

Not having a pharmacy beyond one store could hurt Rouse's if Publix expands into Louisiana. Investing into and expanding pharmacy operations is a decision Rouse's will need to make.

I don't think, outside of a few select, newer locations, that there are just that many quality stores left.

Publix isn't coming to Louisiana for a long time, and when they do, they need to be ready; folks that don't understand New Orleans don't last. Ask National, A&P and Albertsons. WD does a better job than most, but they still lack compared to Rouses and the other locals in town. If Publix isn't ready to cater to the area, they cannot survive here.

National I thought was doing okay, it was a victim of Loblaws wanting to divest its holdings and Schwegmann, which did very well in the market, ended up acquiring it and wound up going bankrupt because of it. A&P also hung around for a very long time, well after A&P had pretty much retreated to the Northeast, and it was only axed when A&P did another round of cost-cutting, which might have worked had they not blown that on Pathmark (another acquiree failure). Albertsons I can see not doing well, but it lasted until...2004, right? It wasn't doing badly enough to get cut in 2002 like everything near or south of I-10 (in Texas), or anywhere north of Arkansas (poor Mid-South Division).

Publix's expansion doesn't look like it will go anymore west. For a while, it looked like it was going west, but then it just stops at Mississippi as it continues to crawl up the West Coast. At this rate, Publix will be in Boston before Baton Rouge.

[veteran+]

If Publix could acquire quality stores from Southeastern Grocers, they could be BI-LO stores in North Carolina and South Carolina that are in good locations and/or good performers.

Not having a pharmacy beyond one store could hurt Rouse's if Publix expands into Louisiana. Investing into and expanding pharmacy operations is a decision Rouse's will need to make.

I don't think, outside of a few select, newer locations, that there are just that many quality stores left.

Publix isn't coming to Louisiana for a long time, and when they do, they need to be ready; folks that don't understand New Orleans don't last. Ask National, A&P and Albertsons. WD does a better job than most, but they still lack compared to Rouses and the other locals in town. If Publix isn't ready to cater to the area, they cannot survive here.

National I thought was doing okay, it was a victim of Loblaws wanting to divest its holdings and Schwegmann, which did very well in the market, ended up acquiring it and wound up going bankrupt because of it. A&P also hung around for a very long time, well after A&P had pretty much retreated to the Northeast, and it was only axed when A&P did another round of cost-cutting, which might have worked had they not blown that on Pathmark (another acquiree failure). Albertsons I can see not doing well, but it lasted until...2004, right? It wasn't doing badly enough to get cut in 2002 like everything near or south of I-10 (in Texas), or anywhere north of Arkansas (poor Mid-South Division).

Publix's expansion doesn't look like it will go anymore west. For a while, it looked like it was going west, but then it just stops at Mississippi as it continues to crawl up the West Coast. At this rate, Publix will be in Boston before Baton Rouge.

I don't believe that we will see Publix enter any market that is union friendly or has a very powerful State Labor Commissioner. They will slowly and organically (with rare deviation) expand into labor markets that match their home territory.

[pseudo3d]

Fact of the matter is Mississippi has very few chain supermarkets altogether. There's only about a dozen Winn-Dixie stores (mostly along the coast) and a small pocket of Kroger stores, and that's it...unless I'm missing something, it's mostly smaller independents. It's possible that since these Winn-Dixie stores are good enough for SEG to hold onto, Publix could buy them and push west toward Louisiana, but they seem to be fine with their current expansion strategy. (If Publix actually did break into Louisiana, the idea of Albertsons Houston division being sold to Publix doesn't seem like a bad idea on either end).

Back on subject, if MS really is that bad that Publix won't set foot in it and Winn-Dixie only has a small handful of stores, then it's far more likely that they'll end up converting those stores to Harveys soon enough and keep New Orleans as an "island" for now.

[wnetmacman]

Fact of the matter is Mississippi has very few chain supermarkets altogether. There's only about a dozen Winn-Dixie stores (mostly along the coast) and a small pocket of Kroger stores, and that's it...unless I'm missing something, it's mostly smaller independents. It's possible that since these Winn-Dixie stores are good enough for SEG to hold onto, Publix could buy them and push west toward Louisiana, but they seem to be fine with their current expansion strategy. (If Publix actually did break into Louisiana, the idea of Albertsons Houston division being sold to Publix doesn't seem like a bad idea on either end).

Kroger operates in Jackson, Tupelo, Vicksburg and along the US-78 corridor from Memphis east, as well as other stores throughout the state. They do not operate south of I-20.

Back on subject, if MS really is that bad that Publix won't set foot in it and Winn-Dixie only has a small handful of stores, then it's far more likely that they'll end up converting those stores to Harveys soon enough and keep New Orleans as an "island" for now.

I'm kind of torn. If Harvey's is doing as well as they say it is, it may be a good idea to invigorate the store base this far west. I don't see it as a long term solution for these stores.

[pseudo3d]

Fact of the matter is Mississippi has very few chain supermarkets altogether. There's only about a dozen Winn-Dixie stores (mostly along the coast) and a small pocket of Kroger stores, and that's it...unless I'm missing something, it's mostly smaller independents. It's possible that since these Winn-Dixie stores are good enough for SEG to hold onto, Publix could buy them and push west toward Louisiana, but they seem to be fine with their current expansion strategy. (If Publix actually did break into Louisiana, the idea of Albertsons Houston division being sold to Publix doesn't seem like a bad idea on either end).

Kroger operates in Jackson, Tupelo, Vicksburg and along the US-78 corridor from Memphis east, as well as other stores throughout the state. They do not operate south of I-20.

Back on subject, if MS really is that bad that Publix won't set foot in it and Winn-Dixie only has a small handful of stores, then it's far more likely that they'll end up converting those stores to Harveys soon enough and keep New Orleans as an "island" for now.

I'm kind of torn. If Harvey's is doing as well as they say it is, it may be a good idea to invigorate the store base this far west. I don't see it as a long term solution for these stores.

I don't think Harveys is a long-term solution at all, just like SaveRite (not to be confused with Wakefern's ShopRite/PriceRite) was supposed to help low-end Winn-Dixie stores that still ended up getting wiped out in 2005, nor do I think that Harveys is doing as well as SEG thinks it is. A new store brings in a flurry of activity either way, but once things settle down, then Harveys will probably drop like a rock, and if it does, it will probably take the MS Winn-Dixie stores with it (and possibly others). Cynicism says that they're not touching the MS or LA stores because SEG doesn't have any confidence that they'll be sticking around in those states for much longer.

Still, I expect that in a year from now, most Harveys will still be operating but clearly have deteriorated (no deli, bakery, or pharmacy).

[Knight]

I don't think, outside of a few select, newer locations, that there are just that many quality stores left.

Southeastern Grocers' does not have many quality stores remaining indeed. Any that are remaining will be select BI-LO stores in North Carolina and South Carolina.

Publix isn't coming to Louisiana for a long time, and when they do, they need to be ready; folks that don't understand New Orleans don't last. Ask National, A&P and Albertsons. WD does a better job than most, but they still lack compared to Rouses and the other locals in town. If Publix isn't ready to cater to the area, they cannot survive here.

I do not expect Publix to be in Louisiana soon. It will be there in several years. Publix's McCalla, Alabama, distribution center is the first step toward western expansion. Mississippi and Memphis, Tennessee, are on the radar.

[Knight]

Publix's expansion doesn't look like it will go anymore west. For a while, it looked like it was going west, but then it just stops at Mississippi as it continues to crawl up the West Coast. At this rate, Publix will be in Boston before Baton Rouge.

Mississippi has been out of reach by Publix's distribution centers in Florida and Georgia. It will be within reach of the McCalla, Alabama, distribution center. Publix in Mississippi by 2018 or 2019 should be doable.