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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by wnetmacman »

Knight wrote:The obvious options for groceries in Florida are supermarkets Publix and Walmart Neighborhood Market and hypermarket Walmart Supercenter. They have likely earned the business of many former Winn-Dixie customers over the years. In the future, Publix will operate more than 800 stores in Florida, and Southeastern Grocers will operate far fewer Winn-Dixie, Harvey's Supermarket and Fresco y Más stores.

I will agree Ian McLeod's strategy is wrong and/or late for Southeastern Grocers.
Any strategy short of a sellout to Publix or Kroger (which I still think is the most likely candidate) is late and wrong. All SEG is doing right now, for lack of a better term, is shining up the turd. Winn-Dixie hasn't built more than a handful of stores in 20 years in any market. Their last main push was the late 90's Marketplace upgrades that many stores received.

In most of WD and Bi-Lo's markets, Publix and Walmart are the main competitors, short of Louisiana, where they compete with Rouses in most of the markets. And the leftover WD stores don't even come close to them. Some of the WD stores that Rouses has taken over took months to clean, upgrade to current standards, and remodel. That, in and of itself, speaks volumes over the resets and paint jobs that SEG is doing to the Harvey's stores.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by pseudo3d »

wnetmacman wrote:
Knight wrote:The obvious options for groceries in Florida are supermarkets Publix and Walmart Neighborhood Market and hypermarket Walmart Supercenter. They have likely earned the business of many former Winn-Dixie customers over the years. In the future, Publix will operate more than 800 stores in Florida, and Southeastern Grocers will operate far fewer Winn-Dixie, Harvey's Supermarket and Fresco y Más stores.

I will agree Ian McLeod's strategy is wrong and/or late for Southeastern Grocers.
Any strategy short of a sellout to Publix or Kroger (which I still think is the most likely candidate) is late and wrong. All SEG is doing right now, for lack of a better term, is shining up the turd. Winn-Dixie hasn't built more than a handful of stores in 20 years in any market. Their last main push was the late 90's Marketplace upgrades that many stores received.

In most of WD and Bi-Lo's markets, Publix and Walmart are the main competitors, short of Louisiana, where they compete with Rouses in most of the markets. And the leftover WD stores don't even come close to them. Some of the WD stores that Rouses has taken over took months to clean, upgrade to current standards, and remodel. That, in and of itself, speaks volumes over the resets and paint jobs that SEG is doing to the Harvey's stores.
I think Winn-Dixie could've pulled itself out of the mess they got into regarding the 2005 bankruptcy but I can't tell where the problems started exactly. After 2005, they had a nice looking décor package (cheap but effective, arguably better than LLC) and semi-decent financials. The 2011 merger with BI-LO was probably the thing that did them in. Under them, the "transformational" remodels that Winn-Dixie was doing was put an end to (the "replacement" was substantially cheaper, before coming to the latest red-and-white décor). Sweetbay Supermarkets was also I think a mistake in terms of Winn-Dixie/BI-LO, converting them too fast and creating a disparity between Winn-Dixie stores and Sweetbay conversions. A slower conversion would've helped the stores ease into it while continuing to improve Winn-Dixie would've been better; instead, they quickly bolstered their market share while doing more damage to the chain in the long run.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by wnetmacman »

pseudo3d wrote:I think Winn-Dixie could've pulled itself out of the mess they got into regarding the 2005 bankruptcy but I can't tell where the problems started exactly. After 2005, they had a nice looking décor package (cheap but effective, arguably better than LLC) and semi-decent financials.
Most of the pre-bankruptcy problems never were resolved. The only help bankruptcy was is that they dropped literally hundreds of dark store leases. No real operations changed. The decor package was indeed nice, but it *still* to this day hasn't been rolled out chainwide; there are still stores with the circa '97 Marketplace package.
pseudo3d wrote:The 2011 merger with BI-LO was probably the thing that did them in. Under them, the "transformational" remodels that Winn-Dixie was doing was put an end to (the "replacement" was substantially cheaper, before coming to the latest red-and-white décor). Sweetbay Supermarkets was also I think a mistake in terms of Winn-Dixie/BI-LO, converting them too fast and creating a disparity between Winn-Dixie stores and Sweetbay conversions. A slower conversion would've helped the stores ease into it while continuing to improve Winn-Dixie would've been better; instead, they quickly bolstered their market share while doing more damage to the chain in the long run.
Executed properly, Bi-Lo would have worked well, because by the time the two merged, they didn't really overlap, thus putting both back into areas they had each operated before. Because neither chain was particularly in good health, it hasn't brought, as Wall Street likes to say, the 'proper synergies' that it should have.

Buying Sweetbay was like the blind leading the blind. There was no waiting on the conversion; we already knew it didn't work, but replacing Sweetbay with Winn Dixie was like trying to put a fire out with gasoline. It went from being Delhaize's failure to another, being Winn Dixie. When a chain doesn't even understand their home base, it's scary to think that they operate other places also.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by veteran+ »

wnetmacman wrote:
pseudo3d wrote:I think Winn-Dixie could've pulled itself out of the mess they got into regarding the 2005 bankruptcy but I can't tell where the problems started exactly. After 2005, they had a nice looking décor package (cheap but effective, arguably better than LLC) and semi-decent financials.
Most of the pre-bankruptcy problems never were resolved. The only help bankruptcy was is that they dropped literally hundreds of dark store leases. No real operations changed. The decor package was indeed nice, but it *still* to this day hasn't been rolled out chainwide; there are still stores with the circa '97 Marketplace package.
pseudo3d wrote:The 2011 merger with BI-LO was probably the thing that did them in. Under them, the "transformational" remodels that Winn-Dixie was doing was put an end to (the "replacement" was substantially cheaper, before coming to the latest red-and-white décor). Sweetbay Supermarkets was also I think a mistake in terms of Winn-Dixie/BI-LO, converting them too fast and creating a disparity between Winn-Dixie stores and Sweetbay conversions. A slower conversion would've helped the stores ease into it while continuing to improve Winn-Dixie would've been better; instead, they quickly bolstered their market share while doing more damage to the chain in the long run.
Executed properly, Bi-Lo would have worked well, because by the time the two merged, they didn't really overlap, thus putting both back into areas they had each operated before. Because neither chain was particularly in good health, it hasn't brought, as Wall Street likes to say, the 'proper synergies' that it should have.

Buying Sweetbay was like the blind leading the blind. There was no waiting on the conversion; we already knew it didn't work, but replacing Sweetbay with Winn Dixie was like trying to put a fire out with gasoline. It went from being Delhaize's failure to another, being Winn Dixie. When a chain doesn't even understand their home base, it's scary to think that they operate other places also.
You bring some great material to the table and it is also spot on.

Thanks!
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by pseudo3d »

wnetmacman wrote: Executed properly, Bi-Lo would have worked well, because by the time the two merged, they didn't really overlap, thus putting both back into areas they had each operated before. Because neither chain was particularly in good health, it hasn't brought, as Wall Street likes to say, the 'proper synergies' that it should have.

Buying Sweetbay was like the blind leading the blind. There was no waiting on the conversion; we already knew it didn't work, but replacing Sweetbay with Winn Dixie was like trying to put a fire out with gasoline. It went from being Delhaize's failure to another, being Winn Dixie. When a chain doesn't even understand their home base, it's scary to think that they operate other places also.
BI-LO/Winn-Dixie was perhaps one of the worst supermarket mergers in recent history, because while they were similar operations without overlap, neither of them had much to bring to the table. The Albertsons/Safeway merger was a bit of a long shot as both companies had significant problems, but both had something to bring to the table. The end result was that Albertsons was able to get a huge combined market share in the West Coast while also getting market shares in a number of key urban areas including Philadelphia, Chicago, and Houston. Safeway also brought its manufacturing line along.

BI-LO/Winn-Dixie, on the other hand, did not have nearly those strengths. The 2005 bankruptcy of Winn-Dixie had caused their manufacturing practices (except for Chek) to fold as their entire private label line essentially vanished. BI-LO had gone bankrupt two years prior, neither chain had a great market share hold on anything in the entire region, and weren't even that ambitious about what they planned to do then, or do now. When your top marketing woman believes "it's better to be disliked than to be forgotten" you've got significant problems (also note in the article that the "Down Down" campaign has severely cut into the advertising budget).

Sweetbay's conversion was incredibly poorly handled, even from reading about it. Unlike A&P and ACME, SEG owned Sweetbay, so they could've taken their sweet(bay) time converting everything to Winn-Dixie without springing the name on until well after the fact. After all, when Winn-Dixie bought Jitney Jungle back in 2000, they took about 9 months to convert everything and finally switch over to the Winn-Dixie name. There was no need to wait 5 days for reopening (especially since you aren't even changing out décor), which is a lot of lost income, then they didn't even offer anything as to why Winn-Dixie was better than Sweetbay (ACME advertised lower prices and its improved perishable departments, Winn-Dixie didn't do more than "Well, the mustard's in the same place"). In short, a disaster.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by Knight »

wnetmacman wrote: Any strategy short of a sellout to Publix or Kroger (which I still think is the most likely candidate) is late and wrong. All SEG is doing right now, for lack of a better term, is shining up the turd. Winn-Dixie hasn't built more than a handful of stores in 20 years in any market. Their last main push was the late 90's Marketplace upgrades that many stores received.

In most of WD and Bi-Lo's markets, Publix and Walmart are the main competitors, short of Louisiana, where they compete with Rouses in most of the markets. And the leftover WD stores don't even come close to them. Some of the WD stores that Rouses has taken over took months to clean, upgrade to current standards, and remodel. That, in and of itself, speaks volumes over the resets and paint jobs that SEG is doing to the Harvey's stores.
The window of opportunity for Publix, Kroger, or Albertson's to acquire the entirety of Southeastern Grocers has closed. Publix can acquire quantities of quality stores. Albertson's needs to consider if it wants to retry the southeastern United States. Kroger can expand into Florida with its Kroger Marketplace hypermarket stores, and/or it can use Harris Teeter.

Rouse's is a participant in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama that will win challenges against Winn-Dixie. It should have closed on the acquisition of LeBlanc's Food Stores. I have not heard of Rouse's expanding the number of pharmacies beyond store 24, 1428 Crescent Avenue, Lockport, Louisiana 70374-3106.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by wnetmacman »

Knight wrote:The window of opportunity for Publix, Kroger, or Albertson's to acquire the entirety of Southeastern Grocers has closed. Publix can acquire quantities of quality stores. Albertson's needs to consider if it wants to retry the southeastern United States. Kroger can expand into Florida with its Kroger Marketplace hypermarket stores, and/or it can use Harris Teeter.
I don't think the window has closed. To get quality stores, that ship sailed long ago. I can't see Publix getting (or wanting) any. Albertsons would have to make some divestitures in Louisiana (specifically, Baton Rouge and Lafayette) to do it. Kroger wouldn't have to do much at all FTC-wise, as they no longer have significant overlap with WD or Bi-Lo, but as you mention, they seem to only want to expand with Marketplace stores and H-T.
Knight wrote:Rouse's is a participant in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama that will win challenges against Winn-Dixie. It should have closed on the acquisition of LeBlanc's Food Stores. I have not heard of Rouse's expanding the number of pharmacies beyond store 24, 1428 Crescent Avenue, Lockport, Louisiana 70374-3106.
A number of Rouses stores are housed in former Winn Dixie stores. That has been a form of expansion for them recently; Ponchatoula was actually offered to them. I'm not sure of the AL and MS stores, as they don't seem to be heavily expanding there as they are in Louisiana.

LeBlanc's is no more. The only changes left to do were in signage, just due to the time they needed to get them ordered, made and installed.

The pharmacy in Lockport is indeed their only one; Lockport is a bit more isolated than most of their other stores geographically. I wouldn't expect them to expand it further unless the opportunity was really good. They are not a pharmacy operator.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by pseudo3d »

wnetmacman wrote:
Knight wrote:The window of opportunity for Publix, Kroger, or Albertson's to acquire the entirety of Southeastern Grocers has closed. Publix can acquire quantities of quality stores. Albertson's needs to consider if it wants to retry the southeastern United States. Kroger can expand into Florida with its Kroger Marketplace hypermarket stores, and/or it can use Harris Teeter.
I don't think the window has closed. To get quality stores, that ship sailed long ago. I can't see Publix getting (or wanting) any. Albertsons would have to make some divestitures in Louisiana (specifically, Baton Rouge and Lafayette) to do it. Kroger wouldn't have to do much at all FTC-wise, as they no longer have significant overlap with WD or Bi-Lo, but as you mention, they seem to only want to expand with Marketplace stores and H-T.
Publix DID buy the seven BI-LO stores in Charlotte, NC in September 2013.
In Greenville, SC BI-LO has more stores than Publix, and Kroger has none, so Kroger could buy that market.
As for Albertsons, Lafayette has three Rouses and one remaining Winn-Dixie, which isn't near the other Albertsons but it looks like it's in poor shape. The other Winn-Dixie stores west of the Mississippi aren't exactly winners (Rayne is only 30k square feet), they don't need BR's Winn-Dixie. New Orleans would work, but I'm not confident Albertsons could actually make a good localization of the stores and at best, it's a distraction from the troubled Houston market.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by wnetmacman »

pseudo3d wrote:
wnetmacman wrote: I don't think the window has closed. To get quality stores, that ship sailed long ago. I can't see Publix getting (or wanting) any. Albertsons would have to make some divestitures in Louisiana (specifically, Baton Rouge and Lafayette) to do it. Kroger wouldn't have to do much at all FTC-wise, as they no longer have significant overlap with WD or Bi-Lo, but as you mention, they seem to only want to expand with Marketplace stores and H-T.
Publix DID buy the seven BI-LO stores in Charlotte, NC in September 2013.
In Greenville, SC BI-LO has more stores than Publix, and Kroger has none, so Kroger could buy that market.
As for Albertsons, Lafayette has three Rouses and one remaining Winn-Dixie, which isn't near the other Albertsons but it looks like it's in poor shape. The other Winn-Dixie stores west of the Mississippi aren't exactly winners (Rayne is only 30k square feet), they don't need BR's Winn-Dixie. New Orleans would work, but I'm not confident Albertsons could actually make a good localization of the stores and at best, it's a distraction from the troubled Houston market.
My comment about not wanting any stores means of the current fleet. SEG has carefully whittled down the stores to the bare minimum. There isn't much left that is workable for any other operator. Kroger, as I've said, would be the most able to do it. Albertsons would only want the Florida stores, and would probably hand Louisiana (and maybe Mississippi) to another operator.

The Lafayette store is in a precarious spot. It's actually in really good physical shape, other than having older, somewhat outdated equipment. To the south is a very popular local store, plus Walmart and Super 1 Foods. Albertsons wouldn't want this store because they failed just south of it a few years ago. To the north, in Carencro, is the Super 1 Foods prototype that has reimaged their sales in Lafayette, plus a Walmart Supercenter under construction next door.

I could see Rouses get it, but it would probably be part of a package deal that also included Rayne, Crowley, Eunice, New Iberia, Abbeville, Breaux Bridge and Franklin. It wouldn't make sense to service stores beyond a large metro area like Lafayette. These eight (the ninth store is New Roads, close enough to be a part of Baton Rouge) would all be a good expansion fit for Rouses, as it would not only fill in the gap between Morgan City and Lafayette, but also push them slightly further North and West. Baton Rouge would have to go to someone else there, as Rouses has their hands full with the LeBlanc's additions there. There would be a small overlap in Mississippi with the Gulf Coast stores for Rouses, but not Albertsons. However, it's also a place where both Kroger and Albertsons have gone and left. Could be a good place to use the Safeway name, as nobody there would know it.
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Re: Southeastern Grocers refocusing Harvey's Supermarket banner

Post by pseudo3d »

wnetmacman wrote:
pseudo3d wrote:
wnetmacman wrote: I don't think the window has closed. To get quality stores, that ship sailed long ago. I can't see Publix getting (or wanting) any. Albertsons would have to make some divestitures in Louisiana (specifically, Baton Rouge and Lafayette) to do it. Kroger wouldn't have to do much at all FTC-wise, as they no longer have significant overlap with WD or Bi-Lo, but as you mention, they seem to only want to expand with Marketplace stores and H-T.
Publix DID buy the seven BI-LO stores in Charlotte, NC in September 2013.
In Greenville, SC BI-LO has more stores than Publix, and Kroger has none, so Kroger could buy that market.
As for Albertsons, Lafayette has three Rouses and one remaining Winn-Dixie, which isn't near the other Albertsons but it looks like it's in poor shape. The other Winn-Dixie stores west of the Mississippi aren't exactly winners (Rayne is only 30k square feet), they don't need BR's Winn-Dixie. New Orleans would work, but I'm not confident Albertsons could actually make a good localization of the stores and at best, it's a distraction from the troubled Houston market.
My comment about not wanting any stores means of the current fleet. SEG has carefully whittled down the stores to the bare minimum. There isn't much left that is workable for any other operator. Kroger, as I've said, would be the most able to do it. Albertsons would only want the Florida stores, and would probably hand Louisiana (and maybe Mississippi) to another operator.

The Lafayette store is in a precarious spot. It's actually in really good physical shape, other than having older, somewhat outdated equipment. To the south is a very popular local store, plus Walmart and Super 1 Foods. Albertsons wouldn't want this store because they failed just south of it a few years ago. To the north, in Carencro, is the Super 1 Foods prototype that has reimaged their sales in Lafayette, plus a Walmart Supercenter under construction next door.

I could see Rouses get it, but it would probably be part of a package deal that also included Rayne, Crowley, Eunice, New Iberia, Abbeville, Breaux Bridge and Franklin. It wouldn't make sense to service stores beyond a large metro area like Lafayette. These eight (the ninth store is New Roads, close enough to be a part of Baton Rouge) would all be a good expansion fit for Rouses, as it would not only fill in the gap between Morgan City and Lafayette, but also push them slightly further North and West. Baton Rouge would have to go to someone else there, as Rouses has their hands full with the LeBlanc's additions there. There would be a small overlap in Mississippi with the Gulf Coast stores for Rouses, but not Albertsons. However, it's also a place where both Kroger and Albertsons have gone and left. Could be a good place to use the Safeway name, as nobody there would know it.
Albertsons may still want Winn-Dixie in Lafayette, as they've bought stores near where previous stores of theirs have failed. I wouldn't it put it past them. They're definitely not going to get the Florida stores unless SEG implodes entirely, which it might. Even a total exit of Louisiana (sans N.O.) seems unlikely at this point, but if it were to happen, the Baton Rouge stores would probably become independent if they were to stay that way.
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