Publix

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Re: Publix

Post by wnetmacman »

architect wrote:At this point, I see further expansion into the DC market, along with Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and possibly Jackson, MS and portions of Louisiana as their primary focus. Outside of Little Rock, Arkansas simply doesn't have enough markets with high discretionary income floating around for Publix to be successful, and the same factor will likely keep Publix's store count in Memphis low if they choose to expand there. Texas is an intensely competitive market, and I expect Publix to stay out at least until HEB's potential DFW expansion is either commenced or called off, Albertsons' holdings in Texas are stabilized or sold off (which could be potentially bought by Publix), and Brookshire's status as an independent company vs being purchased by a larger entity is determined. There is simply too much in flux right now.
I think Publix could do some damage in Memphis; by virtue of Kroger. If that happens, Little Rock would also collapse, as it's part of the same division.

As for Texas and Louisiana....
You're correct. They wouldn't have a chance against HEB. I do not believe the Butt family is interested in selling or merging, especially with an out-of-state company. Albertsons in Texas and Louisiana aren't for sale. They are trying to stabilize Randalls and position them to compete. They aren't doing that great in that, but they are trying.

Brookshire Grocery has publicly stated that they are not for sale. With Brad Brookshire getting back in the driver's seat, they will soldier along as they have.
architect wrote:Also, what about the possibility of an HEB-Publix merger, or some type of partnership between the two companies? Although I see it as a longshot, I could see a merger being pursued if continued consolidation in the industry warrants it.
See my comment above.
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Re: Publix

Post by pseudo3d »

architect wrote:
pseudo3d wrote:
storewanderer wrote:I am not sure we will see Publix undertake more rapid expansion. Part of their formula seems to be to move at a steady pace and not over-do things. Kroger is beating them in some places, too, the past 5 or so years. Where they compete head to head, the Kroger traffic is typically far more than that of Publix. Kroger Marketplace vs. a Publix is really no contest; dead Publix in that case. It may depend what opportunities come up for them as to if they would consider leapfrogging. For instance if a certain highly leveraged money losing chain with thousands of stores that keeps putting off its IPO lets go of some regions, I could certainly see them interested in some of that real estate (but definitely not interested in those stores as operating stores).

I have not been terribly impressed with the produce at Publix and its meat looks pretty ho hum too. The deli may have pretty good sandwiches and have Boar's Head but they don't even have by the pound salads (just prepack stuff). The bakery makes some great stuff but they don't make much so good luck finding what you want if you don't get there early. Publix is not a place I'd go for center store shopping unless I only needed a few things. They do not strike me as a place to go for a big shop. Kroger is the place to go for a big shop that skews toward center store and improvements on perimeter in the Kroger Marketplace stores help make their perimeter stand out too (I think they have a long ways to go in improving quality though, but they have made progress).

I have noticed when I go to FL I do not bring anything home from Publix. I buy what I need for the trip and that is it. This is unusual as I usually accumulate a few groceries or other items to bring home after trips walking stores for one reason or another; be it interesting regional items from Chicago or the Northeast, or well priced private label items from a distant chain, or some Oklahoma Peaches (yum). But Publix did not leave me with anything I was interested in bringing home, well, except the Key Lime Pie in regular or mango flavor, which did not make it to the airport.

What would be interesting to see would be how much would Publix leapfrog. I think they could do pretty well in the Northeast. I am not sure how Publix would do in Texas, Chicago, or even on the west coast.
From where Publix and Albertsons are geographically located now, they're unlikely to give up the ~125 store Eastern Division unless things really start going downhill, and while I could plausibly see the Houston division being sold off to Publix (with the Austin stores being rebranded as possibly Tom Thumb and sent over to South), Publix going as far west as Houston doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.
I was actually wondering about the same thing. Although I could see Albertsons unloading both their Houston and Louisiana stores to Publix, I see little incentive for Publix to expand all the way to Houston at this point. If they were to move into the market, they would have to find some way to differentiate themselves from both Kroger and HEB, which would be extremely difficult considering the strong market share and local focus which both chains have built up at this point. Texas shoppers also will likely not respond well to Publix's higher pricing, considering the typically low prices found in most of the state due to competition between HEB, Aldi and Walmart. If such a move did happen, my guess if that the Austin-area Randalls stores would retain their branding and be transferred to the South Division, while the Houston and Lousiana stores would be rebranded by Publix. Publix has no history of retaining the brands of acquired stores.

At this point, I see further expansion into the DC market, along with Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and possibly Jackson, MS and portions of Louisiana as their primary focus. Outside of Little Rock, Arkansas simply doesn't have enough markets with high discretionary income floating around for Publix to be successful, and the same factor will likely keep Publix's store count in Memphis low if they choose to expand there. Texas is an intensely competitive market, and I expect Publix to stay out at least until HEB's potential DFW expansion is either commenced or called off, Albertsons' holdings in Texas are stabilized or sold off (which could be potentially bought by Publix), and Brookshire's status as an independent company vs being purchased by a larger entity is determined. There is simply too much in flux right now.

Also, what about the possibility of an HEB-Publix merger, or some type of partnership between the two companies? Although I see it as a longshot, I could see a merger being pursued if continued consolidation in the industry warrants it.
The lower income of Mississippi made me think that was why Publix never went beyond AL and instead crawled up the East Coast. But Publix in Houston could work, if they were able to lower prices. While an H-E-B/Publix merger would never happen (too many fundamental changes between the stores, their demographics, their services, their layouts, etc.), Publix does have one similarity to Randalls in that their delis are "complete" (they do make sandwiches, unknown about hot foods), for as much H-E-B thinks they're Wegmans of Texas, they're really more like ShopRite...buy in volume to keep the prices down and cutting down some departments...their delis offer no hot lunches and very food by the pound. They often have rotisserie chicken, fried chicken in boxes, and foil-wrapped items sitting under a heat lamp, but then again, so does Walmart, and Walmart's deli, is well, um, lacking. But if they did buy Randalls and could stand up against H-E-B, they would still be inheriting a fleet with a fraction of the market share even if they did gain some good-volume and well-placed locations and zero infill between Louisiana and Houston.
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Re: Publix

Post by Knight »

storewanderer wrote:I am not sure we will see Publix undertake more rapid expansion. Part of their formula seems to be to move at a steady pace and not over-do things. Kroger is beating them in some places, too, the past 5 or so years. Where they compete head to head, the Kroger traffic is typically far more than that of Publix. Kroger Marketplace vs. a Publix is really no contest; dead Publix in that case. It may depend what opportunities come up for them as to if they would consider leapfrogging. For instance if a certain highly leveraged money losing chain with thousands of stores that keeps putting off its IPO lets go of some regions, I could certainly see them interested in some of that real estate (but definitely not interested in those stores as operating stores).

What would be interesting to see would be how much would Publix leapfrog. I think they could do pretty well in the Northeast. I am not sure how Publix would do in Texas, Chicago, or even on the west coast.
Publix continues to expand. I doubt its expansion is rapid. Publix has 22 out of 41 announced North Carolina stores open, and it will open several of its 13 announced Virginia stores this year.

Kroger Marketplace is Kroger's answer to remain competitive against Publix, Walmart Neighborhood Market, and Walmart Supercenter. In Georgia, Ingle's could be in trouble if it is not updating stores.
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Re: Publix

Post by Knight »

architect wrote: I was actually wondering about the same thing. Although I could see Albertsons unloading both their Houston and Louisiana stores to Publix, I see little incentive for Publix to expand all the way to Houston at this point.
I see Winn-Dixie stores in Louisiana being divested before Albertson's stores.
architect wrote: At this point, I see further expansion into the DC market, along with Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and possibly Jackson, MS and portions of Louisiana as their primary focus. Outside of Little Rock, Arkansas simply doesn't have enough markets with high discretionary income floating around for Publix to be successful, and the same factor will likely keep Publix's store count in Memphis low if they choose to expand there. Texas is an intensely competitive market, and I expect Publix to stay out at least until HEB's potential DFW expansion is either commenced or called off, Albertsons' holdings in Texas are stabilized or sold off (which could be potentially bought by Publix), and Brookshire's status as an independent company vs being purchased by a larger entity is determined. There is simply too much in flux right now.
Publix entering the District of Columbia, Kentucky, Maryland and Mississippi and further expanding in Alabama, Tennessee (Memphis) and Virginia (northern Virginia, Charlottesville, Hampton Roads, Lynchburg, Roanoke, Winchester) are doable.

Arkansas and Louisiana would be a stretch.
architect wrote: Also, what about the possibility of an HEB-Publix merger, or some type of partnership between the two companies? Although I see it as a longshot, I could see a merger being pursued if continued consolidation in the industry warrants it.
HEB and Publix have different models and would have to operate separately.

I do not know HEB's organizational hierarchy. Does it follow the division > region > district > store model like Publix? How many retail divisions and/or regions does HEB have?
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Re: Publix

Post by Knight »

pseudo3d wrote:The lower income of Mississippi made me think that was why Publix never went beyond AL and instead crawled up the East Coast.
I do not think lower incomes in Mississippi is why Publix has not entered the state yet. First, Mississippi was out of reach by distribution. The Dacula, Georgia, distribution center can reach stores at a certain distance. (Dacula supporting stores in North Carolina and Virginia should be short term as another distribution center should open in the Charlotte Division.) The McCalla, Alabama, distribution center is positioned to help perpetuate growth into new states like Mississippi, Second, the completion of Interstate 22 (Mississippi, Alabama) and Interstate 269 (Mississippi, Tennessee) allows for better access into Mississippi to enter new markets.
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Re: Publix

Post by architect »

pseudo3d wrote:Publix does have one similarity to Randalls in that their delis are "complete" (they do make sandwiches, unknown about hot foods), for as much H-E-B thinks they're Wegmans of Texas, they're really more like ShopRite...buy in volume to keep the prices down and cutting down some departments...their delis offer no hot lunches and very food by the pound. They often have rotisserie chicken, fried chicken in boxes, and foil-wrapped items sitting under a heat lamp, but then again, so does Walmart, and Walmart's deli, is well, um, lacking. But if they did buy Randalls and could stand up against H-E-B, they would still be inheriting a fleet with a fraction of the market share even if they did gain some good-volume and well-placed locations and zero infill between Louisiana and Houston.
If Publix did acquire the current Randalls locations, my guess is that they would gradually shut down all of the stores in phases (much like their Richmond conversions) to do a complete overhaul. Frankly, the current Lifestyle decor used across most of Randall's fleet is so vastly different from Publix's that direct conversions would be difficult. Publix would be best served by essentially closing the stores and reopening with a splashy marketing effort. I think that this whole scenario is a longshot, but I could see Publix being successful if they could differentiate themselves with some of HEB's weaknesses (generally no hot lunches, brand-name items removed in lieu of private label items, etc) while also focusing on building market share in areas where Kroger's store base needs attention (particularly underwhelming Albertsons conversions). Outside of some upscale HEB locations, the Houston metro area doesn't have a consistently upscale-skewing, traditional grocer with a reputation to match (much like Market Street in DFW and West Texas). Publix could fill that void.
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Re: Publix

Post by pseudo3d »

Knight wrote:
HEB and Publix have different models and would have to operate separately.

I do not know HEB's organizational hierarchy. Does it follow the division > region > district > store model like Publix? How many retail divisions and/or regions does HEB have?
If I recall correctly, H-E-B has a very distinct division for Central Market (based out of Austin), but not sure on the other brands. They seem to operate divisions out of distribution centers. Their Houston division is based out of a massive complex that includes a DC, bakery, and dairy (built as Safeway's Houston division and bought from AppleTree), they have the Central Texas division (not sure if that's the official name but the Temple DC services Austin and Waco-Temple-Killeen), South Texas (Weslaco based), and San Antonio (headquarters but also a lot of manufacturing and distributing). They have a few far-flung stores in United territory (Midland/Odessa, Abilene) but I don't know who does those. They also have stores in Mexico, which are done through a different subsidiary and presumably its own DCs.
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Re: Publix

Post by Knight »

Publix's retail operations and distribution operations are separate. Distribution centers support an area of stores rather than a specific division. The Dacula, Georgia, distribution center (high velocity, low velocity, dairy/boxed meat, frozen food, produce) supports stores in the Atlanta and Charlotte divisions.

Are HEB's divisions divided into districts, or regions with districts?
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Post by Knight »

Publix and BayCare Health System Announce Exclusive Four-County Collaboration

"Publix Pharmacy and BayCare Health System are pleased to announce an exclusive collaboration to improve the delivery of health care to the residents of Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Polk counties in Florida. The collaboration initially includes BayCare branded telehealth sites in various Publix locations, BayCare screening stations in all Publix locations and Publix Pharmacies on-site at five BayCare hospital locations."

"In addition to these new services within its stores, Publix will purchase, renovate and operate four existing on-site BayCare hospital retail pharmacies at St. Joseph’s Hospital, Tampa; Mease Countryside Hospital, Safety Harbor; Morton Plant Hospital, Clearwater; and St. Anthony’s Hospital, St. Petersburg. A fifth Publix Pharmacy will be built in Winter Haven Hospital. Publix also will provide free, bedside prescription delivery services to patients at all BayCare hospital locations."

Publix Pharmacy is partnering with BayCare Health System to offer health screenings at some Florida locations, and will open additional hospital retail pharmacy locations in Florida.
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Publix GreenWise Market

Post by Knight »

Publix Sets Sights on GreenWise Stores

Publix is reigniting its GreenWise Market specialty organic grocery stores. It will open its first Publix GreenWise Market store in ten years in Tallahassee in 2018.

I project Publix will grow the GreenWise Market banner outside Florida, and it will add pharmacy departments to existing and future GreenWise Market stores.
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