It's definitely easier to picture the stores being split up among multiple operators than one group buying it whole. You have the issue of unions -- S&S is union, but Giant-PA and Hannaford are non-union making it difficult to switch any Stop & Shop stores to those divisions.pseudo3d wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2024, 8:34 am Stop & Shop is the only mainstream supermarket I can find with actual NYC stores (none in Manhattan though), and it stretches from New York City to Boston.
If it's up for sale, who's gonna buy it? Albertsons (assuming no merger) can't buy it in whole unless it wants to divest a good chunk of ACME and Shaw's/Star Market. Kroger buying it would mean they have to deal with the same divestments or just give up the merger altogether. C&S can't buy it unless they want to pull out of the merger, too. Private investors just would probably sooner dismantle it than try to run a supermarket chain.
If they sell it it's far more likely to be split between Big Y, Market Basket, Hannaford, and Albertsons than continue as a unified chain.
The NYC stores are the least of Stop & Shop's worries as far as sales go -- if we assume that they're to be sold as supermarkets and not as real estate, it won't be hard to find a new tenant. NYC is unique in that, for the last few decades at least, the market leaders have been independents and cooperatives. It doesn't work like other cities and those local chains and coops aren't going anywhere (in fact they're getting stronger).
I suspect ACME also isn't a problem -- the average distance between a Stop & Shop and an ACME in NJ is 6 miles, with only a handful closer than two miles together (and I'm sure there's no overlap in shoppers). They do overlap more significantly in parts of the Hudson Valley and southwestern CT, but it doesn't seem like ACME cares much about those areas. Shaw's/Star Market, meanwhile, does pose a big problem for Albertsons.
I would bet between Albertsons (/Kroger? whatever happens there), Wakefern, Big Y, Food Bazaar, Key Food, Weis, Price Chopper/Market 32, and random independents, you could split up the chain just fine. Albertsons takes most NJ stores for ACME, some MA/RI stores for Shaw's, and maybe some CT stores. Wakefern takes Long Island and some other random stores. Big Y takes big chunks of CT and MA. Food Bazaar and Key Food split New York City, some of the immediate suburbs, and whatever's left on Long Island. Weis takes some of the stores way out in western NJ that nobody wants anyway. Price Chopper/Market 32 takes a lot of the Hudson Valley and CT. And there you have it. But obviously, there'd need to be an enormous number of things that go just right to make that all happen. I'm betting nothing so dramatic will happen, but I find it hard to believe nothing will happen when the stores have so clearly declined so quickly.
And one other thing about buyers, if the stores even are for sale. In 2015, did anyone predict that ACME was going to buy 75 A&P stores? I sure didn’t, and I have to strongly doubt that any one of us was thinking that was going to happen. There could always be another random surprise — if the stores are being sold, of course.