Retail Watchers

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 16th, 2024, 12:35 am
In Atlanta, Publix absolutely took share from Kroger when they entered the market...

As of 2019, Kroger had 31% market share in Atlanta, making them number one. In a market where they've always had conventional grocery store competition, that has to be pretty close to where they've always been. And yes, item count/volume is significantly higher than publix. I don't know if that's taken into consideration when they calculate market share or not.

TempoNick wrote: ↑February 23rd, 2024, 3:06 pm

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 16th, 2024, 12:35 am
In Atlanta, Publix absolutely took share from Kroger when they entered the market...

As of 2019, Kroger had 31% market share in Atlanta, making them number one. In a market where they've always had conventional grocery store competition, that has to be pretty close to where they've always been. And yes, item count/volume is significantly higher than publix. I don't know if that's taken into consideration when they calculate market share or not.

Well back in 2010, Publix had #1 share in Atlanta.
https://www.ajc.com/business/publix-tak ... KfG5wtN7L/

So obviously something happened between now and then regarding Kroger competing with Publix in Atlanta and Kroger has gained ground. As I've said- Kroger has gotten better in a number of ways as I described such as improvements to Deli (like Boar's Head), improvements to center store with Simple Truth, stronger pricing, the Pickup program, etc. So all of that strikes me as a caution mark for Publix entering Louisville going against dominant Kroger there... add Meijer into the mix... and another caution...

Atlanta was the first place I interacted with Publix. I was quite underwhelmed, but at least the store was open late at night, may have even been 24 hours; I think it was a former A&P unit. On a later trip to FL arriving late and planning to visit Publix I was greeted with a 9 PM closing time in a very busy area around Orlando. I tried another Publix or two and same thing closed at 9 PM. Okay, whatever. Found a Wal Mart (by that point it was past 10 PM) that looked like Christmas Eve it was so packed and got my drinks/snacks.

Publix does a lot of things well but at some point going against competition that just flat out has better stores, better services, and better prices, I think they are going to hit a wall. They will wisely avoid Texas.

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 23rd, 2024, 10:55 pm

TempoNick wrote: ↑February 23rd, 2024, 3:06 pm

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 16th, 2024, 12:35 am
In Atlanta, Publix absolutely took share from Kroger when they entered the market...

As of 2019, Kroger had 31% market share in Atlanta, making them number one. In a market where they've always had conventional grocery store competition, that has to be pretty close to where they've always been. And yes, item count/volume is significantly higher than publix. I don't know if that's taken into consideration when they calculate market share or not.

Well back in 2010, Publix had #1 share in Atlanta.
https://www.ajc.com/business/publix-tak ... KfG5wtN7L/

So obviously something happened between now and then regarding Kroger competing with Publix in Atlanta and Kroger has gained ground. As I've said- Kroger has gotten better in a number of ways as I described such as improvements to Deli (like Boar's Head), improvements to center store with Simple Truth, stronger pricing, the Pickup program, etc. So all of that strikes me as a caution mark for Publix entering Louisville going against dominant Kroger there... add Meijer into the mix... and another caution...

Atlanta was the first place I interacted with Publix. I was quite underwhelmed, but at least the store was open late at night, may have even been 24 hours; I think it was a former A&P unit. On a later trip to FL arriving late and planning to visit Publix I was greeted with a 9 PM closing time in a very busy area around Orlando. I tried another Publix or two and same thing closed at 9 PM. Okay, whatever. Found a Wal Mart (by that point it was past 10 PM) that looked like Christmas Eve it was so packed and got my drinks/snacks.

Publix does a lot of things well but at some point going against competition that just flat out has better stores, better services, and better prices, I think they are going to hit a wall. They will wisely avoid Texas.

Well said!

The story of Publix that is embedded in the minds of pundits and the general public is laced with lots of hyperbole. Publix was LUCKY and in the right place at the right time. Competitors (for a myriad of reasons and having nothing to do with Publix) were dropping like flies all around Florida.

They have never been innovative and when faced with a savvy and efficient operator their weaknesses are revealed in the light of day.

veteran+ wrote: ↑February 24th, 2024, 8:35 am

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 23rd, 2024, 10:55 pm

TempoNick wrote: ↑February 23rd, 2024, 3:06 pm

As of 2019, Kroger had 31% market share in Atlanta, making them number one. In a market where they've always had conventional grocery store competition, that has to be pretty close to where they've always been. And yes, item count/volume is significantly higher than publix. I don't know if that's taken into consideration when they calculate market share or not.

Well back in 2010, Publix had #1 share in Atlanta.
https://www.ajc.com/business/publix-tak ... KfG5wtN7L/

So obviously something happened between now and then regarding Kroger competing with Publix in Atlanta and Kroger has gained ground. As I've said- Kroger has gotten better in a number of ways as I described such as improvements to Deli (like Boar's Head), improvements to center store with Simple Truth, stronger pricing, the Pickup program, etc. So all of that strikes me as a caution mark for Publix entering Louisville going against dominant Kroger there... add Meijer into the mix... and another caution...

Atlanta was the first place I interacted with Publix. I was quite underwhelmed, but at least the store was open late at night, may have even been 24 hours; I think it was a former A&P unit. On a later trip to FL arriving late and planning to visit Publix I was greeted with a 9 PM closing time in a very busy area around Orlando. I tried another Publix or two and same thing closed at 9 PM. Okay, whatever. Found a Wal Mart (by that point it was past 10 PM) that looked like Christmas Eve it was so packed and got my drinks/snacks.

Publix does a lot of things well but at some point going against competition that just flat out has better stores, better services, and better prices, I think they are going to hit a wall. They will wisely avoid Texas.

Well said!

The story of Publix that is embedded in the minds of pundits and the general public is laced with lots of hyperbole. Publix was LUCKY and in the right place at the right time. Competitors (for a myriad of reasons and having nothing to do with Publix) were dropping like flies all around Florida.

They have never been innovative and when faced with a savvy and efficient operator their weaknesses are revealed in the light of day.

I've always said the same thing about H-E-B and how it conquered Houston, to be honest.

veteran+ wrote: ↑February 24th, 2024, 8:35 am

Well said!

The story of Publix that is embedded in the minds of pundits and the general public is laced with lots of hyperbole. Publix was LUCKY and in the right place at the right time. Competitors (for a myriad of reasons and having nothing to do with Publix) were dropping like flies all around Florida.

They have never been innovative and when faced with a savvy and efficient operator their weaknesses are revealed in the light of day.

Publix is lucky Kroger has run into a lot of weird bumps in recent years because the Kroger that was being run by Dillon, I think was on its way to a strong Organic expansion into FL that would have involved Marketplace Stores. I think that would have been very bad news for Publix. A handful of well placed Marketplace stores around say Orlando would cause pain 15-20 of the mediumish volume lousy hours Publix Stores. Even if those Kroger Stores weren't run all that well, just the sheer store size, added product offer, and different pricing/promotion strategy would have drawn in a lot of customers. Also I think Kroger's formula would have worked better than the formulas of chains like Albertsons, Jewel, who tried and clearly did not work in FL for a variety of reasons price probably being one of the top reasons.

I do think Publix has played its cards well time after time and handles its affairs/finances in an intelligent manner. The way they manipulated Albertsons in Florida over the years was like the work of a mastermind.

I am somewhat concerned about some of these expansions both Publix and Hy-Vee are engaging in at the present time. We will see how things work out.

I also think Publix is excellent at "expense control" and knows how to run low volume stores in a way that they stay in business/products are fresh... Hy-Vee needs volume and lots of it for their formula to work.

Kroger flirted with Florida in the past. They had SuperX stores with large grocery sections on the in peripheral areas N of Miami and also Florida Choice stores in SW Florida which had service food departments and GM. Both seem like spinoffs from their Family Center operations which went into peripheral or expansion markets, mostly in small towns. Both areas drew and still draw a lot of Midwestern transplants.

Kroger is perennially a defense player and has expanded largely through acquisition, going back to the 1920s. The time for them to go into Florida has passed, as there are no sizable chains for sale that would fit their model. Given that many costs in Florida are rising (construction--fewer migrant laborers, insurance esp. in coastal areas), the window for large scale, organic growth is probably closing despite the rapid population increase.

buckguy wrote: ↑February 25th, 2024, 5:09 am Kroger flirted with Florida in the past. They had SuperX stores with large grocery sections on the in peripheral areas N of Miami and also Florida Choice stores in SW Florida which had service food departments and GM. Both seem like spinoffs from their Family Center operations which went into peripheral or expansion markets, mostly in small towns. Both areas drew and still draw a lot of Midwestern transplants.

Kroger is perennially a defense player and has expanded largely through acquisition, going back to the 1920s. The time for them to go into Florida has passed, as there are no sizable chains for sale that would fit their model. Given that many costs in Florida are rising (construction--fewer migrant laborers, insurance esp. in coastal areas), the window for large scale, organic growth is probably closing despite the rapid population increase.

Kroger was changing under the old CEO Dillon- it was moving into being an offensive player. Now Kroger is back to the playing style you describe- defensive/acquisition.

I agree the window for them to do an Organic expansion into FL is probably closed.

With the upcoming loss of Winn Dixie, Publix will only get stronger.

buckguy wrote: ↑February 25th, 2024, 5:09 am Kroger flirted with Florida in the past. They had SuperX stores with large grocery sections on the in peripheral areas N of Miami and also Florida Choice stores in SW Florida which had service food departments and GM. Both seem like spinoffs from their Family Center operations which went into peripheral or expansion markets, mostly in small towns. Both areas drew and still draw a lot of Midwestern transplants.

Kroger is perennially a defense player and has expanded largely through acquisition, going back to the 1920s. The time for them to go into Florida has passed, as there are no sizable chains for sale that would fit their model. Given that many costs in Florida are rising (construction--fewer migrant laborers, insurance esp. in coastal areas), the window for large scale, organic growth is probably closing despite the rapid population increase.

Don't forget Lucky's Market, which Kroger had a majority share in before they pulled out and the chain collapsed.

pseudo3d wrote: ↑February 25th, 2024, 1:30 pm

buckguy wrote: ↑February 25th, 2024, 5:09 am Kroger flirted with Florida in the past. They had SuperX stores with large grocery sections on the in peripheral areas N of Miami and also Florida Choice stores in SW Florida which had service food departments and GM. Both seem like spinoffs from their Family Center operations which went into peripheral or expansion markets, mostly in small towns. Both areas drew and still draw a lot of Midwestern transplants.

Kroger is perennially a defense player and has expanded largely through acquisition, going back to the 1920s. The time for them to go into Florida has passed, as there are no sizable chains for sale that would fit their model. Given that many costs in Florida are rising (construction--fewer migrant laborers, insurance esp. in coastal areas), the window for large scale, organic growth is probably closing despite the rapid population increase.

Don't forget Lucky's Market, which Kroger had a majority share in before they pulled out and the chain collapsed.

That seemed to be the vehicle Kroger decided to use to go into FL. Maybe whatever money they had earmarked to do an actual Kroger expansion into FL, got blown on the Lucky's Market investment instead.

I think there was also some confusion with Kroger if they should go into FL with Kroger Marketplace format or go in with Harris Teeter. I would have gone in with a few well placed Kroger Marketplace units and designed them as destination stores that could have done $2 million a week in sales (wouldn't have been very hard to make that happen, people would drive for miles to get to a store other than Publix or Wal Mart in FL that was well priced and brought a better item mix into the market). Of course they'd need fuel stations. Basically handle the expansion in the same way HEB is handling its expansion into Dallas.

storewanderer wrote: ↑February 25th, 2024, 10:16 pm I think there was also some confusion with Kroger if they should go into FL with Kroger Marketplace format or go in with Harris Teeter. I would have gone in with a few well placed Kroger Marketplace units and designed them as destination stores that could have done $2 million a week in sales (wouldn't have been very hard to make that happen, people would drive for miles to get to a store other than Publix or Wal Mart in FL that was well priced and brought a better item mix into the market). Of course they'd need fuel stations. Basically handle the expansion in the same way HEB is handling its expansion into Dallas.

Meijer was also talking about expansion into Florida at one point- they might’ve acquired some land sites along the I-75 corridor in Florida.

Meijer also bought a land site in the Twin Cities suburbs (I believe Brooklyn Park) a few years ago. I’d think the Twin Cities, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh will be the next Meijer expansion areas.
I wonder how Meijer would do in Denver though…