Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

storewanderer
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by storewanderer »

Bagels wrote: July 13th, 2023, 2:08 am

I moved to CA in 2000, shortly after I graduated HS. Maybe a year after I moved, my allergies flared and I was prescribed a medicine that my insurance would only fill in 10-day increments and yet I desperately needed especially when I worked out. So, I visited the drug store at least three times per month. I choose Rite Aid largely out of stupidity as it was the only familiar chain (IIRC, this was in between the time CVS exited and re-entered the market; Walgreens had some stores but they had just entered the market where I grew up and I knew them only as the chain that had stores on every block in Chicago).

I visited multiple Rite Aids -- mainly the one (that recently closed) in Irvine at Alton/Culver but also locations in Garden Groove, Fountain Valley/Huntington Beach, Laguna Woods, etc. Rite Aid was ALWAYS super busy. The ice cream counter clearly brought in the foot traffic on hot summer days. Today, I rarely see any foot traffic in these stores. The Alton/Culver location is a good example -- the wall by the employees' office was loaded with sales volume awards from years gone by, but it turned into a ghost town in the past decade. Meanwhile, the CVS a couple miles up the road at Alton/Jeffrey is thriving.

CVS unquestionably has the most foot traffic locally. Some of that is due to insurance -- as you noted, many large employees use CVS (Caremark) as their pharmacy manager, and employees get lower co-pays when filling prescriptions there. And of course, some portions of SoCal were oversaturated with CVS after it began building its store fleet organically, then acquired Savon, Long's and Target pharmacies. It's only been in recent years that it began to weed excess stores out (presumably as their leases expire). Walgreens doesn't do the foot traffic that CVS does, but in my experiences it's far better than Rite Aid.

Rite Aid's downfall was partially blamed on overburdening its stores with groceries and general merchandise. Groceries were the next big thing ~15 years ago, when everybody raced to add freezers, refrigerators and fresh produce to their stores. Longs had some great prices on their groceries -- we purchased a ton of fresh produce at their Hawaii stores -- but allegedly it was treated as a loss leader. CVS & Walgreens have improved their assortment, but both have pulled back. I've noticed that locally, many CVS stores no longer carry milk, bread and eggs.

Alas, I believe Rite Aid's strength is in its longtime core markets within the East and that the West/ CA stores are underperforming, but of course we don't have access to the hard data.
What are those longtime core markets back east where they still have critical mass to even have strength at this point? They haven't been in MI with mass much longer than they've been out west. They are certainly established and with a strong base in PA. The rest of the east was gutted by the Walgreens deal and their stores are few and far between. NY still has about 250 stores but before the Walgreens deal it had like 600+ stores; they are a shadow of what they once were in NY.

Keep in mind here at this point the chain has about 2,200 Rite Aid stores and ~??50 Bartell Stores. Of that, basically 1,400 of the stores are in PA, CA, MI, and WA.

CA is absolutely not underperforming for Rite Aid. It is one of their best, strongest markets. They have penetration in many areas where other drugstore chains are not present, as well as various valuable leases that make them the only pharmacy in established shopping centers in very mature neighborhoods. Many of the highest volume stores in the chain are in CA. Some of their best run stores are also in CA.

What is interesting up in, for instance, OR, is that while Rite Aid has a lot of stores, they do not seem to do particularly well. Also for whatever reason back in the late 90's when Payless was doing a lot of store expansion, they allowed competitor supermarkets to open in the same shopping center with pharmacy present. This is the issue a lot of those OR Stores have. I think it causes some underperformance. But this isn't the case with every shopping center Payless opened in during the late 90's, there are some where they are the only pharmacy.

Funny you should mention milk, bread, and eggs as I've noticed CVS quit offering those in some stores in my area too, and the lone NV Rite Aid in Gardnerville has also quit carrying milk and eggs sometime in the past few months. I wonder if these places had the same distributor.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by storewanderer »

According to posts on Reddit, which may or may not be true, Rite Aid is reportedly accelerating some of its upcoming resets. Resets that were scheduled for months later than July, will now be done in July.

As a result of this they are planning some kind of a "summer clearance event/sale" in their stores due to the large amount of clearance merchandise these resets are expected to generate.

I am not clear what sections these resets are going to cover. They have recently done a lot of resets around food, cosmetics, cleaning products, dental products, and paper products covering what I consider to be pretty large areas of the store. They also in the past couple weeks posted quite a bit of clearance in the GNC area but not clear if that is even controlled by them or that is a GNC thing.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by Romr123 »

Just spent a few minutes in the Woodsville, NH RA. Nice looking freestanding store with drivethru inside and out. A couple of people doing resets; a good bit of clearance odds and ends. Did notice a planogram taped up for "Nutrition-Low Volume" which would be logical (sparsely populated Connecticut River town; Walmart and Shaws/Osco are the competition). Great service at the pharmacy---was chatting up the pharmacist and technician who thought it was rocket science that RA had stores in Michigan and entirely blown away that RA had lots of stores in California...what they needed though were stores in Florida (for snowbirds).
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by storewanderer »

Romr123 wrote: July 21st, 2023, 4:20 pm Just spent a few minutes in the Woodsville, NH RA. Nice looking freestanding store with drivethru inside and out. A couple of people doing resets; a good bit of clearance odds and ends. Did notice a planogram taped up for "Nutrition-Low Volume" which would be logical (sparsely populated Connecticut River town; Walmart and Shaws/Osco are the competition). Great service at the pharmacy---was chatting up the pharmacist and technician who thought it was rocket science that RA had stores in Michigan and entirely blown away that RA had lots of stores in California...what they needed though were stores in Florida (for snowbirds).
Did they have any seasonal other than 70% off summer/garden?

Any back to school, fall, etc.?

There is a big push to get the resets done fast.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by Romr123 »

It looked like they had BTS signage up but didn't notice if they'd brought in any merchandise. There seemed to be a small reset crew in the store beavering away.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by BillyGr »

storewanderer wrote: July 22nd, 2023, 12:15 am
Romr123 wrote: July 21st, 2023, 4:20 pm Just spent a few minutes in the Woodsville, NH RA. Nice looking freestanding store with drivethru inside and out. A couple of people doing resets; a good bit of clearance odds and ends. Did notice a planogram taped up for "Nutrition-Low Volume" which would be logical (sparsely populated Connecticut River town; Walmart and Shaws/Osco are the competition). Great service at the pharmacy---was chatting up the pharmacist and technician who thought it was rocket science that RA had stores in Michigan and entirely blown away that RA had lots of stores in California...what they needed though were stores in Florida (for snowbirds).
Did they have any seasonal other than 70% off summer/garden?

Any back to school, fall, etc.?

There is a big push to get the resets done fast.
Not sure exactly what NH does, but NY most schools don't start until post Labor Day. Thus, some places may have stuff out for that now, but it's not exactly urgent, like places where school may start in a week or three.

In fact, if anything, people in this area usually complain about ads for back to school being too early (if an entire chain is trying to work off the same schedule, thus starting earlier to work with the places where school starts first).
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by storewanderer »

BillyGr wrote: July 22nd, 2023, 8:14 am

Not sure exactly what NH does, but NY most schools don't start until post Labor Day. Thus, some places may have stuff out for that now, but it's not exactly urgent, like places where school may start in a week or three.

In fact, if anything, people in this area usually complain about ads for back to school being too early (if an entire chain is trying to work off the same schedule, thus starting earlier to work with the places where school starts first).
Yeah, I always hated to see back to school stuff out in July back when I was younger... it made me feel like summer was over but then it wasn't even 50% done yet. But the nature of the retail beast is you have got to get that seasonal stuff out into the store ASAP to give it maximum opportunity to sell at full/starting price. Missed early sales mean leftover stuff to be sold on markdown in September.

In my area, Target has Back to School fully set and has for a few weeks now. Wal Mart's condition varies by store but it is supposed to be fully set now. Dollar Tree has had Back to School set since June (kind of ironic since school had barely ended). Kroger has had back to school set since 4th of July and is promoting it heavily.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by BillyGr »

storewanderer wrote: July 22nd, 2023, 12:28 pm
BillyGr wrote: July 22nd, 2023, 8:14 am

Not sure exactly what NH does, but NY most schools don't start until post Labor Day. Thus, some places may have stuff out for that now, but it's not exactly urgent, like places where school may start in a week or three.

In fact, if anything, people in this area usually complain about ads for back to school being too early (if an entire chain is trying to work off the same schedule, thus starting earlier to work with the places where school starts first).
Yeah, I always hated to see back to school stuff out in July back when I was younger... it made me feel like summer was over but then it wasn't even 50% done yet. But the nature of the retail beast is you have got to get that seasonal stuff out into the store ASAP to give it maximum opportunity to sell at full/starting price. Missed early sales mean leftover stuff to be sold on markdown in September.

In my area, Target has Back to School fully set and has for a few weeks now. Wal Mart's condition varies by store but it is supposed to be fully set now. Dollar Tree has had Back to School set since June (kind of ironic since school had barely ended). Kroger has had back to school set since 4th of July and is promoting it heavily.
I was simply referring to chains not taking into account the actual dates for Back to School and just doing things the same in all their stores. That works fine for holidays, since Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas etc. are the same day all over the USA, but not so well with this due to the wide variation in schedules.

Some chains do (or did) vary the ads - one that comes to mind is Staples, back when they used to offer items free with a rebate. You'd see someone posting such a deal and then see it in your ad a couple weeks later.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by ClownLoach »

There are countless reports tonight that Rite Aid's bankruptcy filing is imminent, along with another large wave of store closures. Some sources are claiming 160 stores. The bankruptcy is intended to circumvent having to make an opioid settlement in the billions.

One way or another, I think they can reorganize and without the burden of dead rent on closed stores they should emerge with cleaner books and ability to be profitable. Furthermore, after this there shouldn't be questions anymore as they have this last chance to close whatever else has to close. I suspect that they'll have a pre-packaged bankruptcy, meaning once they emerge at least the workers in remaining stores won't have that burden hanging over their heads anymore of wondering "is my store going to close next?"

Many times we see a retail bankruptcy here and just nod, "yep, saw that coming a mile away." I don't think that's appropriate here. I think they have a lot of good people who have been failed by poor leadership. It's a sad fate to see them harmed by the incompetence of these folks. I hope they can turn it around, because I personally would really miss Rite Aid and I believe it's a viable company under competent leadership. With clean books maybe a good CEO and team would be willing to take on the challenge.
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Re: Rite Aid Bankruptcy Speculation

Post by storewanderer »

Rite Aid was band-aided along for the past 20+ years after the accounting issues. Bob Miller stabilized the company, is the primary reason the company has survived this long, and after stepped down from CEO he installed in Mary Sammons a CEO who was able to make serious inroads in fixing what was a miserable/toxic corporate culture, and got the company in a position to survive long term.

I think the Eckerd acquisition was a big mistake due to debt. I think the Bartell acquisition was a small mistake at a time when the company couldn't afford any size of a mistake.

The problem is they need to get management into the company again who can take control of the experience and stabilize the situation. Ever since the failed Walgreens acquisition, then the Albertsons thing, then that last CEO who recently left, this company has felt like it lacks leadership and lacks stability. First you had leadership who seemed desperate to sell the company. Then you had leadership who seemed to lack ideas that worked financially and started to resort to bad inventory level cuts, budget cuts, store hours cuts, etc. They have got to get a strong, experienced, industry veteran in there to run the company who can convince the employees that the company will actually be here next year and it is trying to make improvements for customers and employees.

After Rite Aid sold what were its worst stores to Walgreens they should have been ready to roll with the best stores in the chain left. Instead the new CEO blew the money on the new logo, a few concept stores, relocating corporate office, and other things that did not accomplish anything. It is really sad.

The interest rate thing, the opioid thing, these are issues out of management's control also that seem to be causing major problems.

I am curious what kind of a footprint the chain should have going forward. I think the states where they have critical mass like CA, WA, PA, and MI are states where they should be able to focus, are large enough that they should have some clout with insurance providers, etc. States like NY they still have 200+ stores but are a marginal player. Most other states they are well under 100 stores and I am not sure how viable that few units is, I suppose reimbursements on prescriptions varies by state so the small store count may work in some states but not others.

It may also be nice to see them get involved in some of these supermarket pharmacy operating agreements where they run the pharmacy inside a grocer... that may have been money better spent than that new logo and certainly better than the concept stores.
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