2024 Retail Predictions?

[Brian Lutz]

I haven't been to an Aldi store yet, but my wife went once and swore the place off for good (she did the same with a Publix store, but I'm pretty sure she looks at the price tag and absolutely nothing else when shopping.) There are a few things we get at Lidl now that one opened nearby but I've found that the store brand products there are very hit-or-miss, and when they do miss it's not just the usual "a little off" you get with store brands, it's typically "straight in the trash" level misses. I'll reserve judgment until I actually try Aldi out myself, but I'm not sure how well their store model would work in a place with established competition like WinCo.

[veteran+]

And I can't understate the fact that the new grocery industry boogeyman is going to become Aldi. Nobody took them seriously before, but their seemingly endless supply of cash and incredible cost controls mean they are going to replace Amazon as the biggest threat to the industry. The Winn-Dixie acquisition and future gutting is going to be their new growth strategy. They will start to pick up smaller chains and repeat the plan. Remember, it doesn't take much for their stores to break even due to their cost model, which means they have all the time in the world to build and wait for customers who inevitably do arrive.

I don't understand Aldi. One opened up near my house a few years ago and I find the store ridiculously underwhelming. I've only been in a couple of times and don't really see any reason to return. Their product mix is, uh, interesting. Their pricing isn't significantly lower than others and they don't really offer anything "unique" other than a handful of German products.

I'm not convinced Aldi, with it's current format, is as big of a threat as made out to be. The real winners in this Winn Dixie purchase will be Walmart and Publix.

All that and you have to work to put money in their pockets.

So funny how consumers believe anything the "snake oil salesman" says and then rationalizes their belief of the nonsense (would rather die than admit they were duped).

[veteran+]

Here is what I expect to happen with Kroger and Albertsons, since this is a hot topic:

SoCal: Hypothetically if the Albertsons/Kroger merger goes through, which I'm not quite sure it will at this point, Kroger and Albertsons will be required to sell more stores than initially planned to C&S, which in turn C&S over the next five years will sell the bulk of divested stores to Stater Bros and Save Mart, but also a few locations each to Smart & Final, Gelsons and Whole Foods in more upscale areas, and Walmart Neighborhood Market, and Save Mart will revive the Lucky name in SoCal just like the Bay Area, with both Stater and Save Mart buying the stores in waves just like how Publix bought waves of Albertsons stores in Florida over time until there were none left. Kroger in turn will slowly convert stores to either the Ralphs and Vons banner (or just throwing it out there, Safeway), eliminating multiple banners, along with Fresh Fare stores being converted to Pavilions, and keep existing Pavilions as they are. It would evidently be the end for the Albertsons banner in California forever.

If the merger doesn't go through, I expect Albertsons to narrow most of SoCal down to the Albertsons and Pavilions banners, converting Vons stores to either of those banners, with the exception the Vons stores particularly in West LA since it is one of the markets where the Vons banner is much stronger. The rest of SoCal will be converted, and people may be upset about the change at first, but will get over the banner change over time just like the Lucky/Albertsons merger. Kroger will continue to shed Ralphs stores, particularly exiting the Inland Empire, Temecula, Coachella Valley, and the Central Coast, selling the stores to Stater, Albertsons, and Save Mart. I can also see either Stater and/or Save Mart give the Central Coast a try in the near future. However, maybe Ralphs will build new/rebuild older stores in LA throughout the future in turn to strengthen their stronger CA markets with their weaker markets in the rearview mirror.

In either scenario, Food 4 Less gets sold wholly to Save Mart or PAQ Inc, or split between both with some being converted to FoodMaxx and some being franchised by PAQ Inc. along with the Food 4 Less stores throughout Central and NorCal not owned by Kroger.

Central and NorCal: Merger or no merger between Albertsons and Kroger, Kroger will sell all the remaining FoodsCo stores to Save Mart, and they will be converted either to FoodMaxx or Lucky. If the merger goes through, Kroger will have an even greater reason since they will own Safeway, and FoodsCo will no longer be their sole presence in NorCal. The Fresno Vons locations, as well as Oakhurst, Bishop, and Mammoth Lakes will be converted to Safeway and be given remodels regardless of whether the merger happens or not.

Las Vegas and Arizona: Definite elimination of Vons banner in Las Vegas and elimination of Albertsons banner in Arizona, since Albertsons only exists in large Arizona metro areas at this point, it is no longer present statewide.

PNW: Just a continuation of what is already happening, the Albertsons banner eventually disappears from Washington and Northern Oregon, and an expansion of the Albertsons banner in Idaho and Montana. If the merger goes through, I expect new Albertsons store banners in the country to be limited to their strongest markets, which are Montana, Idaho, and maybe Southern Oregon and the Dakotas. Albertsons will likely stick around New Mexico and El Paso for a while, but that's a wild card, as I'm not really sure what would happen there. Albertsons will be just a fever dream everywhere else.

Texas and Louisiana: Albertsons won't completely exit Texas, but will sell Albertsons-bannered stores in the state to Kroger if merger does not happen, and convert maybe a few more busy Albertsons stores they want to keep to Tomb Thumb, with the exception of El Paso which will stay as it is. Louisiana stores without the merger will be sold to Kroger or Publix, with the merger, remaining Albertsons stores will be re-bannered as Kroger since there isn't much of a reason to keep the name on so little stores in an area.

Northeast: Without the merger, Kroger may buy some or most of the East Coast Safeway stores and convert them to Harris Teeter, since they have a presence in that market, the rest of the East Coast, remaining Safeway locations, ACME, Star, and Shaws, will not be bought by Kroger, but slowly picked up by existing competition in the area. Not quite sure what Krogers intentions are in the Northeast if the merger does go through.

Denver: Also not quite sure what happens here, but most likely, it's either the merger, or C&S will acquire the stores in this division without the merger, but gain the rights to the Safeway name instead of Albertsons.

Chicago: This is what I think may be one of the main reasons Kroger wants this merger with Albertsons, a greater foothold in the Chicago market, and access to Albertsons crown Jewel (pun intended). However, without the merger, I expect that Kroger will continue to attempt to enter the Chicago market, not with Mariano's, but I believe it would be one of the few places outside of the core markets of Kroger that they would build new Kroger-bannered superstores that they are building to replicate Walmart Supercenters, such as Texas and Ohio. While the Kroger name is not present in the Chicago market, they do have stores in the state of Illinois, so it is not out of familiarity, and there is no doubt Kroger is willing to spend the money to make their way into the market and gain market share from Jewel if they cannot acquire Jewel themselves. I also expect Kroger along with their own bannered stores to open more Food 4 Less stores in the market, as well as remodel existing ones, but change the concept to something that more replicates Walmart Neighborhood Market.

In general, without the merger, the only major expansion I see from Kroger is the Chicago market, as well as expansion in their core markets. Maybe Kroger will clean up non-core markets like SoCal, but they likely won't be interested in nationwide expansion beyond their current markets without the acquisition of Albertsons current store base. I don't think Kroger is that desperate for a national expansion to compete with Walmart as they are making it out to be. I also think Kroger is gonna give up on Florida any day now, as their only presence is through online delivery, but there is no store base that brings brand awareness to Florida, so eventually Publix will once again dominate another competitor trying to take over their home turf. Kroger will continue to expand their hypermarket concept in favor of supermarkets in their core markets, and slowly replace traditional supermarkets with hypermarkets, or AKA, a Kroger Walmart Supercenter. Kroger will also shift focus away from QFC in the PNW to a further expansion of Fred Meyer.

Albertsons without the merger will trim up their fleet and focus on their more successful markets. I can see Albertsons making an expansion in their existing markets to further gain market share in their strongest markets.

With other chains:

Publix will continue to expand west, as well as north, eventually competing directly with Wegmans in the Washington D.C. market. If Krogers merger does not go through, maybe Publix will buy some ACME stores in Jersey so they can continue to expand further north, and Publix, as stated, will continue it's natural expansion west past Kentucky. Publix is another competitor I can see one day looking to enter the Chicago market to challenge Jewel, but that is only a dream, it may not be completely reality, at least for a while.

Hy-Vee and H-E-B will also continue to expand and dominate the Southeast and Midwest grocery market.

Target will shift their focus to full-size stores once again, and maybe they will start opening new-build Super Target store again particularly in the Southeast and Midwest to combat Krogers expansion of their hypermarket model. Target won't necessarily get rid of all their smaller-sized stores, but there will be significantly less expansion of that concept, and will be focused in places like SoCal and NYC where smaller stores have seen more success.

Walmart, well... is just Walmart, they will continue to open new stores, but as a company will likely not change much. However, I do see them spending a significant amount of cash to bolster Sam's Clubs store count, and eventually be a much stronger competitor against Costco than they ever were. However, Costco isn't going anywhere despite the expansion of Sam's Club. Eventually, Sam's Club will spin off to become a separate company.

Amazon will eventually dump the Fresh stores. While the Fresh stores are a cool concept, they are losing Amazon money. I can see some more profitable stores being converted to Whole Foods, but the rest will be sold, not to traditional supermarkets, but likely to discount retailers like Ross and T.J.Maxx/Marshalls, and those that were carved out from existing Kohls locations being sold back to Kohl's, as I don't think other supermarket chains are gonna pick them up. I don't see Amazon selling Whole Foods, as they have always been somewhat profitable unlike Fresh. I do see the technology Fresh stores used being experimented in other supermarket chains in the future.

Rite Aid will solely focus on their West Coast store base if it come out of bankruptcy, and sell remaining midwest and east coast stores, or particularly any store outside CA, OR, WA, and maybe ID, to CVS and Walgreens. All stores in the Seattle area will be converted to Bartell, and the company will continue on for several more years before Walgreens makes another merger attempt with the now-smaller Rite Aid, but will choose to keep the Rite Aid and Bartell banners in their core markets.

Walgreens as a company in the US is likely not going anywhere anytime soon, but they will certainly split from Boots Alliance.

Maybe BJ's Wholesale Club also decides to expand further west to jump on the bandwagon with Sam's Club?

By the end of the year, Sears will somehow still be in existence, now outlasting Bed Bath and Beyond, Christmas Tree Shops, Sports Authority, and other chains that were definitely considered more popular.

Some very interesting ideas and scenarios..........good food for thought.

I only take exception with Publix. Chicago, the northeast? I do not think so. Western expansion may slowly continue but selectively. "Red States" is where they will go, slowly and organically. This can change if they get radically different leaders...............highly unlikely.

[storewanderer]

And I can't understate the fact that the new grocery industry boogeyman is going to become Aldi. Nobody took them seriously before, but their seemingly endless supply of cash and incredible cost controls mean they are going to replace Amazon as the biggest threat to the industry. The Winn-Dixie acquisition and future gutting is going to be their new growth strategy. They will start to pick up smaller chains and repeat the plan. Remember, it doesn't take much for their stores to break even due to their cost model, which means they have all the time in the world to build and wait for customers who inevitably do arrive.

I don't understand Aldi. One opened up near my house a few years ago and I find the store ridiculously underwhelming. I've only been in a couple of times and don't really see any reason to return. Their product mix is, uh, interesting. Their pricing isn't significantly lower than others and they don't really offer anything "unique" other than a handful of German products.

I'm not convinced Aldi, with it's current format, is as big of a threat as made out to be. The real winners in this Winn Dixie purchase will be Walmart and Publix.

All that and you have to work to put money in their pockets.

So funny how consumers believe anything the "snake oil salesman" says and then rationalizes their belief of the nonsense (would rather die than admit they were duped).

I do not think Aldi is going to continue to take out chains like Winn Dixie. I think the Winn Dixie thing is going to be a distraction for Aldi and will backfire on them. Also while having some dark space in the too big of a store leases here and there may sound okay, when they suddenly have 500 stores with dark space (not unlike Rite Aid's former Payless stores out west) they are going to realize that dark space actually costs money and times 500 it is a real expense, and actually is a problem but there is not an easy way out.

Aldi's pricing relative to competitors does not seem as great as it once was (maybe it is great in CA compared to high priced chains like Safeway/Vons/Albertsons) but they are barely competitive with Kroger or Wal Mart everyday pricing and not even in the ball park of WinCo.

I was plotting a scenario for Aldi to continue to take out what appear to be struggling regional chains similar to what they are doing with Winn Dixie. But I don't really see it. What other self distributing chains are struggling at this point that would be easy take out targets for Aldi? I think any regional chain supplied by a wholesaler who was considering doing this sale to Aldi thing, the wholesaler would step up and get the stores placed with other operators or buy the stores themself.

[ClownLoach]

Here is what I expect to happen with Kroger and Albertsons, since this is a hot topic:

SoCal: Hypothetically if the Albertsons/Kroger merger goes through, which I'm not quite sure it will at this point, Kroger and Albertsons will be required to sell more stores than initially planned to C&S, which in turn C&S over the next five years will sell the bulk of divested stores to Stater Bros and Save Mart, but also a few locations each to Smart & Final, Gelsons and Whole Foods in more upscale areas, and Walmart Neighborhood Market, and Save Mart will revive the Lucky name in SoCal just like the Bay Area, with both Stater and Save Mart buying the stores in waves just like how Publix bought waves of Albertsons stores in Florida over time until there were none left. Kroger in turn will slowly convert stores to either the Ralphs and Vons banner (or just throwing it out there, Safeway), eliminating multiple banners, along with Fresh Fare stores being converted to Pavilions, and keep existing Pavilions as they are. It would evidently be the end for the Albertsons banner in California forever.

If the merger doesn't go through, I expect Albertsons to narrow most of SoCal down to the Albertsons and Pavilions banners, converting Vons stores to either of those banners, with the exception the Vons stores particularly in West LA since it is one of the markets where the Vons banner is much stronger. The rest of SoCal will be converted, and people may be upset about the change at first, but will get over the banner change over time just like the Lucky/Albertsons merger. Kroger will continue to shed Ralphs stores, particularly exiting the Inland Empire, Temecula, Coachella Valley, and the Central Coast, selling the stores to Stater, Albertsons, and Save Mart. I can also see either Stater and/or Save Mart give the Central Coast a try in the near future. However, maybe Ralphs will build new/rebuild older stores in LA throughout the future in turn to strengthen their stronger CA markets with their weaker markets in the rearview mirror.

In either scenario, Food 4 Less gets sold wholly to Save Mart or PAQ Inc, or split between both with some being converted to FoodMaxx and some being franchised by PAQ Inc. along with the Food 4 Less stores throughout Central and NorCal not owned by Kroger.

Central and NorCal: Merger or no merger between Albertsons and Kroger, Kroger will sell all the remaining FoodsCo stores to Save Mart, and they will be converted either to FoodMaxx or Lucky. If the merger goes through, Kroger will have an even greater reason since they will own Safeway, and FoodsCo will no longer be their sole presence in NorCal. The Fresno Vons locations, as well as Oakhurst, Bishop, and Mammoth Lakes will be converted to Safeway and be given remodels regardless of whether the merger happens or not.

Las Vegas and Arizona: Definite elimination of Vons banner in Las Vegas and elimination of Albertsons banner in Arizona, since Albertsons only exists in large Arizona metro areas at this point, it is no longer present statewide.

PNW: Just a continuation of what is already happening, the Albertsons banner eventually disappears from Washington and Northern Oregon, and an expansion of the Albertsons banner in Idaho and Montana. If the merger goes through, I expect new Albertsons store banners in the country to be limited to their strongest markets, which are Montana, Idaho, and maybe Southern Oregon and the Dakotas. Albertsons will likely stick around New Mexico and El Paso for a while, but that's a wild card, as I'm not really sure what would happen there. Albertsons will be just a fever dream everywhere else.

Texas and Louisiana: Albertsons won't completely exit Texas, but will sell Albertsons-bannered stores in the state to Kroger if merger does not happen, and convert maybe a few more busy Albertsons stores they want to keep to Tomb Thumb, with the exception of El Paso which will stay as it is. Louisiana stores without the merger will be sold to Kroger or Publix, with the merger, remaining Albertsons stores will be re-bannered as Kroger since there isn't much of a reason to keep the name on so little stores in an area.

Northeast: Without the merger, Kroger may buy some or most of the East Coast Safeway stores and convert them to Harris Teeter, since they have a presence in that market, the rest of the East Coast, remaining Safeway locations, ACME, Star, and Shaws, will not be bought by Kroger, but slowly picked up by existing competition in the area. Not quite sure what Krogers intentions are in the Northeast if the merger does go through.

Denver: Also not quite sure what happens here, but most likely, it's either the merger, or C&S will acquire the stores in this division without the merger, but gain the rights to the Safeway name instead of Albertsons.

Chicago: This is what I think may be one of the main reasons Kroger wants this merger with Albertsons, a greater foothold in the Chicago market, and access to Albertsons crown Jewel (pun intended). However, without the merger, I expect that Kroger will continue to attempt to enter the Chicago market, not with Mariano's, but I believe it would be one of the few places outside of the core markets of Kroger that they would build new Kroger-bannered superstores that they are building to replicate Walmart Supercenters, such as Texas and Ohio. While the Kroger name is not present in the Chicago market, they do have stores in the state of Illinois, so it is not out of familiarity, and there is no doubt Kroger is willing to spend the money to make their way into the market and gain market share from Jewel if they cannot acquire Jewel themselves. I also expect Kroger along with their own bannered stores to open more Food 4 Less stores in the market, as well as remodel existing ones, but change the concept to something that more replicates Walmart Neighborhood Market.

In general, without the merger, the only major expansion I see from Kroger is the Chicago market, as well as expansion in their core markets. Maybe Kroger will clean up non-core markets like SoCal, but they likely won't be interested in nationwide expansion beyond their current markets without the acquisition of Albertsons current store base. I don't think Kroger is that desperate for a national expansion to compete with Walmart as they are making it out to be. I also think Kroger is gonna give up on Florida any day now, as their only presence is through online delivery, but there is no store base that brings brand awareness to Florida, so eventually Publix will once again dominate another competitor trying to take over their home turf. Kroger will continue to expand their hypermarket concept in favor of supermarkets in their core markets, and slowly replace traditional supermarkets with hypermarkets, or AKA, a Kroger Walmart Supercenter. Kroger will also shift focus away from QFC in the PNW to a further expansion of Fred Meyer.

Albertsons without the merger will trim up their fleet and focus on their more successful markets. I can see Albertsons making an expansion in their existing markets to further gain market share in their strongest markets.

With other chains:

Publix will continue to expand west, as well as north, eventually competing directly with Wegmans in the Washington D.C. market. If Krogers merger does not go through, maybe Publix will buy some ACME stores in Jersey so they can continue to expand further north, and Publix, as stated, will continue it's natural expansion west past Kentucky. Publix is another competitor I can see one day looking to enter the Chicago market to challenge Jewel, but that is only a dream, it may not be completely reality, at least for a while.

Hy-Vee and H-E-B will also continue to expand and dominate the Southeast and Midwest grocery market.

Target will shift their focus to full-size stores once again, and maybe they will start opening new-build Super Target store again particularly in the Southeast and Midwest to combat Krogers expansion of their hypermarket model. Target won't necessarily get rid of all their smaller-sized stores, but there will be significantly less expansion of that concept, and will be focused in places like SoCal and NYC where smaller stores have seen more success.

Walmart, well... is just Walmart, they will continue to open new stores, but as a company will likely not change much. However, I do see them spending a significant amount of cash to bolster Sam's Clubs store count, and eventually be a much stronger competitor against Costco than they ever were. However, Costco isn't going anywhere despite the expansion of Sam's Club. Eventually, Sam's Club will spin off to become a separate company.

Amazon will eventually dump the Fresh stores. While the Fresh stores are a cool concept, they are losing Amazon money. I can see some more profitable stores being converted to Whole Foods, but the rest will be sold, not to traditional supermarkets, but likely to discount retailers like Ross and T.J.Maxx/Marshalls, and those that were carved out from existing Kohls locations being sold back to Kohl's, as I don't think other supermarket chains are gonna pick them up. I don't see Amazon selling Whole Foods, as they have always been somewhat profitable unlike Fresh. I do see the technology Fresh stores used being experimented in other supermarket chains in the future.

Rite Aid will solely focus on their West Coast store base if it come out of bankruptcy, and sell remaining midwest and east coast stores, or particularly any store outside CA, OR, WA, and maybe ID, to CVS and Walgreens. All stores in the Seattle area will be converted to Bartell, and the company will continue on for several more years before Walgreens makes another merger attempt with the now-smaller Rite Aid, but will choose to keep the Rite Aid and Bartell banners in their core markets.

Walgreens as a company in the US is likely not going anywhere anytime soon, but they will certainly split from Boots Alliance.

Maybe BJ's Wholesale Club also decides to expand further west to jump on the bandwagon with Sam's Club?

By the end of the year, Sears will somehow still be in existence, now outlasting Bed Bath and Beyond, Christmas Tree Shops, Sports Authority, and other chains that were definitely considered more popular.

Some very interesting ideas and scenarios..........good food for thought.

I only take exception with Publix. Chicago, the northeast? I do not think so. Western expansion may slowly continue but selectively. "Red States" is where they will go, slowly and organically. This can change if they get radically different leaders...............highly unlikely.

No reason for Ralphs to shed anything in the Inland Empire. Nearly every Ralphs store overlaps with a Stater Bros, so they're not a buyer at all. And it's a comping (growing) market. Temecula/Murrieta specifically is doing very well and are solid stores. And they drive through the market to deliver to San Diego.

Stater Bros is not going to expand past their "bubble" of being within 2 hours drive of HQ.

[BillyGr]

I don't understand Aldi. One opened up near my house a few years ago and I find the store ridiculously underwhelming. I've only been in a couple of times and don't really see any reason to return. Their product mix is, uh, interesting. Their pricing isn't significantly lower than others and they don't really offer anything "unique" other than a handful of German products.

They simply run primarily their own products, with only a few branded items mixed in (some regularly, others when they can make a "special deal" to buy them, and while they last).

Not sure that everything they offer is lower priced, but there certainly are things that are less than other stores (comparing store brand to store brand), and that was definitely the case in the past even more than it is now (like when they first opened here you could get bread or hot dog/burger rolls for $0.39, other places may have been $0.69 or $0.79 at that time, if not higher).

I was plotting a scenario for Aldi to continue to take out what appear to be struggling regional chains similar to what they are doing with Winn Dixie. But I don't really see it. What other self-distributing chains are struggling at this point that would be easy take-out targets for Aldi? I think any regional chain supplied by a wholesaler who was considering doing this sale to Aldi thing, the wholesaler would step up and get the stores placed with other operators or buy the stores themself.

Depends on who that wholesaler is

Using our (maybe not so) favorite one, known as C&S.

When Grand Union was floundering, they bought the whole chain, but then sold off most of the stores to others. Some were other chains they already supplied wholesale, but others (like Price Chopper and Hannaford here in NY) were not. And of course, they continued to run some of the stores for a number of years.

Thus, had a chain like Aldi been willing to make an offer for some locations, I don't see why they wouldn't have taken that, just as they did from other chains they didn't supply (unless they were able to get a better offer from a chain they did supply, which wasn't the case in all areas).

[ClownLoach]

I don't understand Aldi. One opened up near my house a few years ago and I find the store ridiculously underwhelming. I've only been in a couple of times and don't really see any reason to return. Their product mix is, uh, interesting. Their pricing isn't significantly lower than others and they don't really offer anything "unique" other than a handful of German products.

I'm not convinced Aldi, with it's current format, is as big of a threat as made out to be. The real winners in this Winn Dixie purchase will be Walmart and Publix.

All that and you have to work to put money in their pockets.

So funny how consumers believe anything the "snake oil salesman" says and then rationalizes their belief of the nonsense (would rather die than admit they were duped).

I do not think Aldi is going to continue to take out chains like Winn Dixie. I think the Winn Dixie thing is going to be a distraction for Aldi and will backfire on them. Also while having some dark space in the too big of a store leases here and there may sound okay, when they suddenly have 500 stores with dark space (not unlike Rite Aid's former Payless stores out west) they are going to realize that dark space actually costs money and times 500 it is a real expense, and actually is a problem but there is not an easy way out.

Aldi's pricing relative to competitors does not seem as great as it once was (maybe it is great in CA compared to high priced chains like Safeway/Vons/Albertsons) but they are barely competitive with Kroger or Wal Mart everyday pricing and not even in the ball park of WinCo.

I was plotting a scenario for Aldi to continue to take out what appear to be struggling regional chains similar to what they are doing with Winn Dixie. But I don't really see it. What other self distributing chains are struggling at this point that would be easy take out targets for Aldi? I think any regional chain supplied by a wholesaler who was considering doing this sale to Aldi thing, the wholesaler would step up and get the stores placed with other operators or buy the stores themself.

If the Winn-Dixie deal backfires then sure. But I have a feeling that it won't, and that they did their homework on the real estate piece. Financially troubled retailers usually have leases with very favorable terms for the landlord, including numerous boot clauses. Those are a two way street. It's possible for example that Winn-Dixie leases will allow for separation in the event of a company sale. It's also very likely that instead of 5 or 10 year terms that they have year to year. So I do not believe that Winn-Dixie saddles Aldi with any serious recurring dead rent. If you're a landlord and you are facing Aldi replacing your Winn-Dixie you're going to be cheering for joy; no landlord would reject them. And if you're Aldi and you have some stores that you don't want to keep post acquisition, you can easily discard them thru this process or the short lease term after.

Maybe wholesalers step up for other troubled regional chains, but maybe not. Aldi certainly has deeper pockets. Interest rates are high and they have cash.

I was always one who also discounted Aldi as any serious concern to the industry, but I'm starting to second guess myself as Amazon has dwindled from their role of industry boogeyman. Corporate America is always looking for a boogeyman, and Aldi is a convenient replacement. That alone changes the tactics and strategies we will see the grocery chains take since the concern that Amazon would have thousands of stores by now have obviously not come to fruition. Everything these chains have been focused on was combating Amazon until now.

[Romr123]

Anyone want to make some wild (or not so wild) predictions for 2024? Will Kroger and Albertsons marry? Will Winn Dixie's actually become Aldi? Is Rite Aid a goner?

My predictions for 2024:


Strong regionals like Publix, Hy-Vee, H-E-B, Meijer, Wegmans will continue to expand.
Publix will probably go into Mississippi, Arkansas, West Tennessee, etc.
I think Hy-Vee should still go to Denver and other Western Plains markets (like Cheyenne, Rapid City, Billings) instead of fighting Publix in the Upland South.
H-E-B will give ACI a lot of competitive pressure as they expand into the D-FW metroplex.
Meijer lays the groundwork to expand into St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Twin Cities, Buffalo.
Wegmans expands further into New England.

Just got an interesting (mailed) coupon book (co-op national brand coupons with produce and meat coupons mailed out of Lansdale, PA)from Meijer today--- a rather attractive glossy coupon fold-out with a beauty shot of multicolor chard with a "hand-picked just for you". Open up and the chard motif is on the interior picture along with a tureen of (clearly homemade) bean soup and a serving along with home-made bread. Looks mouthwatering, and TBH closer in concept to an upscale chain store (Wegmans/Pavilions/Schnucks/DIerbergs etc).

Far higher-concept/higher production value than any Kroger brand (all we have here in SEMI is Kroger-logo stores) and entirely a different universe than a Walmart.

Shows just what a high-caliber grocer Meijer actually is. We live in inner-ring suburban Detroit (10/Woodward). On the neighborhood FB group, when someone is looking for something exotic at the grocery store, about 50% of the time the local specialty supermarket is mentioned, about 40% of the time Meijer, and virtually never Kroger.

[SamSpade]

I don't think Albertsons will do anything g radical with banners. Continuing to take Safeway out of OR/WA

Surely you made a typo there?!?

[storewanderer]

I don't think Albertsons will do anything g radical with banners. Continuing to take Safeway out of OR/WA

Surely you made a typo there?!?

Definite typo. Should be continuing to take Albertsons banner out of OR/WA. Safeway banner is for better or worse more effective there.