2024 Retail Predictions?
Posted: January 1st, 2024, 10:59 am
Anyone want to make some wild (or not so wild) predictions for 2024? Will Kroger and Albertsons marry? Will Winn Dixie's actually become Aldi? Is Rite Aid a goner?
I think the Kroger-Albertsons deal falls through as the necessary divestitures in the PNW specifically push them past the 650 mark and Kroger pulls out due to shareholders push back (because at that point they could build an entirely new chain the size of Albertsons with 2000+ brand new stores for less!).
My predictions for 2024:ClownLoach wrote: ↑January 1st, 2024, 1:10 pmI think the Kroger-Albertsons deal falls through as the necessary divestitures in the PNW specifically push them past the 650 mark and Kroger pulls out due to shareholders push back (because at that point they could build an entirely new chain the size of Albertsons with 2000+ brand new stores for less!).
Albertsons will still wind up in multiple sale transactions by end of 2024, possibly including a sale of just the Northeast to Kroger. Albertsons sells underperforming divisions like Texas and others, becoming a leaner and more profitable enterprise primarily in the West.
retailfanmitchell019 wrote: ↑January 1st, 2024, 1:37 pmMy predictions for 2024:ClownLoach wrote: ↑January 1st, 2024, 1:10 pmI think the Kroger-Albertsons deal falls through as the necessary divestitures in the PNW specifically push them past the 650 mark and Kroger pulls out due to shareholders push back (because at that point they could build an entirely new chain the size of Albertsons with 2000+ brand new stores for less!).
Albertsons will still wind up in multiple sale transactions by end of 2024, possibly including a sale of just the Northeast to Kroger. Albertsons sells underperforming divisions like Texas and others, becoming a leaner and more profitable enterprise primarily in the West.
Assuming the Kroger merger fails, I’d expect Albertsons will be like this by January 1, 2025: draw a line west of Denver, and every division east of that line (except for the crown Jewel) is sold off to Kroger (East Coast assets) or another buyer. I’d think the Denver and Texas divisions will be sold to buyers like C&S and AWG. Perhaps Aldi will buy the Texas assets, being non-union.
WFM and Fresh will be sold together so that the liabilities of the leases on dead stores are moved off Amazon books. The Fresh fiasco is going to be what forces the WFM sale. One doesn't go without the other.mbz321 wrote: ↑January 1st, 2024, 6:29 pm I'm thinking we might see the bankruptcy and possible liquidation of both Big Lots and JoAnn by the end of 2024.
Other 'uni-purpose' big box chains (Staples, Best Buy, etc.) will continue to trim their fleet.
A big wave of Macy's closures wouldn't be very surprising.
I don't see Costco or Sam's announcing any big expansion plans, they will both continue on with opening a location here and there.
I think Amazon Fresh will be abandoned and I don't see the stores being sold off to anyone. Maybe a few are converted to Whole Foods. (As a side note, I drove past a 'ghost store' in Philadelphia earlier today. At one point, the signs were up and everything, and I noticed today they were all removed).