California Grocery Market down 4-5%??

[storewanderer]

According to that BizJournals article on the Raleys layoffs if you can get past the paywall there is a quote that I find somewhat curious:
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The quote is as follows:

"Chelsea Carbahal, vice president of public affairs for The Raley's Companies, said the company is making changes to its expense structure in response to "macroeconomic challenges" that the grocery industry as a whole is facing, which have led to changing customer behavior.

"This is us being proactive and really getting ahead of it," Carbahal said. "The grocery market in California is down between 4 and 5%, and we expect that to continue, so this is a proactive effort to work on our company expense structure and to continue our position in the market. We are very strong and our market share is growing, even despite the market contraction that we are seeing."
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Huh.
How can that be possible with all the price hikes (to be fair Raleys is slowest on price hikes; Save Mart and Safeway are much faster on price hikes; Raleys has a lot of better pricing than those two as they are slower to increase)?

Plus Raleys has what about 15 stores in NV, 100 stores in AZ, and about 110 stores in CA... but those AZ stores ... I suspect account for a low percentage of total sales vs. CA/NV.

Are people in CA returning to restaurants in mass and buying 4-5% fewer groceries?

I am looking here at competitor results.
Albertsons with like 30% of its store base in CA released Q3 earnings a few weeks ago and they say Identical Store Sales increased 2.9%
Sprouts had a similar about 3% comparable store sales increase and they also have a large percentage of their stores in CA.

Very interesting information there about CA grocery market being down 4-5%.

[HCal]

Perhaps this refers to Californians buying more food at alternative stores (dollar stores, warehouse clubs, etc.) as opposed to true "grocery" stores?

That's the only explanation I can think of. This statement is rather strange.

[storewanderer]

Perhaps this refers to Californians buying more food at alternative stores (dollar stores, warehouse clubs, etc.) as opposed to true "grocery" stores?

That's the only explanation I can think of. This statement is rather strange.

Warehouse clubs are definitely a serious form of competition for Raleys. The upper middle class Costco Boomer crowd is the same group who has historically been very loyal to Raleys. However as this group gets older they have less need for a warehouse store, and it seems would gravitate more purchasing back toward a conventional supermarket. So I don't even know about this.

However for the CA portion of Raleys I do not think dollar stores are a competitor at all (they're probably an issue for Bashas in AZ and a little of an issue for some of Raleys in NV). Completely different customer bases.

[BillyGr]

It doesn't really say what is down 4-5% in that section.

Could be just the quantity of items sold is lower (since people are paying more per item), maybe in some cases buying one larger package to save a bit over two smaller ones and similar?

Rather than it being the amount spent that is down (which would seem odd).

[ClownLoach]

It doesn't really say what is down 4-5% in that section.

Could be just the quantity of items sold is lower (since people are paying more per item), maybe in some cases buying one larger package to save a bit over two smaller ones and similar?

Rather than it being the amount spent that is down (which would seem odd).

I read it as their California market is down 4% to 5%. The comparison to Sprouts and Albertsons is very relevant here as I suspect their results are more in line with the overall market, maybe even underperforming to it.

I am not sure how Walmart is doing, but with their lack of sale prices in foods and massive price increases have to be sending customers to the competition. Their food aisles are empty of customers and they don't seem to care.

Costco is also delivering massive price increases in foods right now. I suspect that their household goods, furniture, electronics etc. aren't moving well enough to absorb cost increases in food anymore. I was shocked last week as nearly every food item had gone up between $1 and $5, with fresh newly printed price signs. If you told me they raised prices on over a thousand food items I would believe you. Meanwhile the exact same couch that was $2999 last year is $1999 this year and just got an additional $300 discount.

Is Winco a factor in all of their California markets? I keep having to park further away from their store here because the lot is more packed than when I first moved here.

Trader Joe's is also hyper busy but we all know they can't replace a conventional supermarket.

I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates. I think tax evasion fraud is at an all time high. I'm getting ads on Instagram from little mailbox places in Montana and North Dakota offering residency services where they help you re-register your cars, get a drivers license, and they basically give you a false address of their shop. With California's high taxes, using one of these services is like clipping coupons as you'll give yourself a 10% or more raise if you have remote work and thus can claim you're working in an income tax free state. Think about it: everywhere you look they're plopping down 1000+ unit mega apartment complexes and they're filling up within 6 months of completion. Obviously there is a discrepancy in the population figures, and although the local news loves to report on U-Haul trucks outbound nobody asks what inbound figures are.

I have to conclude this is a Raley's problem, not a industry problem in California.

[veteran+]

I agree with................................... "I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates."

I'm not buying those numbers on face value about massive migration out of Cali . They are hardly ever delivered in context. ALL the numbers are likewise not delivered.

Also there are significant numbers of folks moving back (if they can afford to) to California after having experienced living elsewhere.

[ClownLoach]

I agree with................................... "I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates."

I'm not buying those numbers on face value about massive migration out of Cali . They are hardly ever delivered in context. ALL the numbers are likewise not delivered.

Also there are significant numbers of folks moving back (if they can afford to) to California after having experienced living elsewhere.

Supposedly Orange County population is down since 2020... But I can point out dozens of 1000+ unit apartment complexes that opened in the same time frame and have completely filled. Look at Brea for example - the area by the mall looks like it has added 10,000 or more large apartments 6 stories high (or more) plus many more similar size mega complexes down Imperial Hwy.. Same for just south by CSUF. There's an extra 100,000 people just in those two cities... Same exact scenario in Laguna Niguel where they're going 8 stories or more at I-5 and Crown Valley... Another 8,000 apartments in just a few years. And they're all filling up at top dollar, $3K or more for a one bedroom. I estimate Orange County population is up at least a million people in the last 5 years... And every other car isn't registered in California in South OC.

When these companies will do all the work for you and even book a flight and DMV appointment to make you a North Dakota or Montana resident in a day, then you pay for the privilege of their fake address $250/year with weekly mail forwarding... There's no way the California Franchise Tax Board can keep up with all the cheats. Besides, the state doesn't have a clue that these people are here as they rent under an LLC. And when you consider how high the taxes are is it any wonder they've gone from a $100B surplus to a $60B deficit in just a couple of years with so many people doing this? My sister actually has a home in Montana and knows people who have their entire extended family living with them "on paper" with a Montana drivers license and so forth. If you're a highly paid "work from home" employee you're set, and even if you have to fly into the office in California once a month at your own expense you still come out way ahead financially. Primary phone is a "burner..."

[storewanderer]

I read it as their California market is down 4% to 5%. The comparison to Sprouts and Albertsons is very relevant here as I suspect their results are more in line with the overall market, maybe even underperforming to it.

I am not sure how Walmart is doing, but with their lack of sale prices in foods and massive price increases have to be sending customers to the competition. Their food aisles are empty of customers and they don't seem to care.

Costco is also delivering massive price increases in foods right now. I suspect that their household goods, furniture, electronics etc. aren't moving well enough to absorb cost increases in food anymore. I was shocked last week as nearly every food item had gone up between $1 and $5, with fresh newly printed price signs. If you told me they raised prices on over a thousand food items I would believe you. Meanwhile the exact same couch that was $2999 last year is $1999 this year and just got an additional $300 discount.

Is Winco a factor in all of their California markets? I keep having to park further away from their store here because the lot is more packed than when I first moved here.

Trader Joe's is also hyper busy but we all know they can't replace a conventional supermarket.

I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates. I think tax evasion fraud is at an all time high. I'm getting ads on Instagram from little mailbox places in Montana and North Dakota offering residency services where they help you re-register your cars, get a drivers license, and they basically give you a false address of their shop. With California's high taxes, using one of these services is like clipping coupons as you'll give yourself a 10% or more raise if you have remote work and thus can claim you're working in an income tax free state. Think about it: everywhere you look they're plopping down 1000+ unit mega apartment complexes and they're filling up within 6 months of completion. Obviously there is a discrepancy in the population figures, and although the local news loves to report on U-Haul trucks outbound nobody asks what inbound figures are.

I have to conclude this is a Raley's problem, not a industry problem in California.

Raleys has been running better ads but is pushing in ad coupons, digital offers, etc. They do not tie standard sale pricing to a loyalty card. Raleys also did a transition on their website for online shopping to a different provider sometime in the past few months and it was down (you couldn't do online shopping with Raleys) for around a week with no notice that I saw and also no estimated time when it would be back up.

I don't see how the markets Raleys is in are down 4-5%. If Raleys was a chain of stores with locations only in San Francisco I'd believe they were down 20% but they are in a lot of growing markets; Sacramento and Placer County are still very much growing and to some extent so is the central valley/smaller northern California markets. Tahoe is down this year but Raleys lost one store there due to the landlord drawing up a new lease with Target so that shouldn't matter.

Sometime before 2/1 here in Reno, both Wal Mart and WinCo for some reason did a price increase on Dozen Large White Cage Free Eggs to 3.96. It is strange because Smiths/Target are still 2.79 for a dozen, Trader Joe's 2.89, the various Jacksons gas stations around town 2.99, Safeway 3.49 for a dozen, Save Mart still 5.29 for a dozen (clueless clueless and clueless), Raleys 3.98 for a dozen... Also I've been watching at WinCo as those Cluster Tomatoes which were 1.98/lb for weeks went to 2.98 last week and now this weekend went to 3.98 yet the price for those at Smiths of 1.99/lb and Safeway at 3.49/lb is unchanged for the past few months. I am wondering if some of these stores like Wal Mart and WinCo are doing funny things to pricing around the first of the month when they get a surge of customers.

Wal Mart has had some sale prices in food but nothing is advertised or particularly well signed in the store. A couple weeks ago they ran boneless half pork loins in meat at 1.94/lb an excellent price (theirs are only 2-3 pounds, a convenient size) but there was no sign or anything you just had to be looking at the packages to see the price. Then last week they went back to 2.94/lb which is the regular price.

[ClownLoach]

I read it as their California market is down 4% to 5%. The comparison to Sprouts and Albertsons is very relevant here as I suspect their results are more in line with the overall market, maybe even underperforming to it.

I am not sure how Walmart is doing, but with their lack of sale prices in foods and massive price increases have to be sending customers to the competition. Their food aisles are empty of customers and they don't seem to care.

Costco is also delivering massive price increases in foods right now. I suspect that their household goods, furniture, electronics etc. aren't moving well enough to absorb cost increases in food anymore. I was shocked last week as nearly every food item had gone up between $1 and $5, with fresh newly printed price signs. If you told me they raised prices on over a thousand food items I would believe you. Meanwhile the exact same couch that was $2999 last year is $1999 this year and just got an additional $300 discount.

Is Winco a factor in all of their California markets? I keep having to park further away from their store here because the lot is more packed than when I first moved here.

Trader Joe's is also hyper busy but we all know they can't replace a conventional supermarket.

I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates. I think tax evasion fraud is at an all time high. I'm getting ads on Instagram from little mailbox places in Montana and North Dakota offering residency services where they help you re-register your cars, get a drivers license, and they basically give you a false address of their shop. With California's high taxes, using one of these services is like clipping coupons as you'll give yourself a 10% or more raise if you have remote work and thus can claim you're working in an income tax free state. Think about it: everywhere you look they're plopping down 1000+ unit mega apartment complexes and they're filling up within 6 months of completion. Obviously there is a discrepancy in the population figures, and although the local news loves to report on U-Haul trucks outbound nobody asks what inbound figures are.

I have to conclude this is a Raley's problem, not a industry problem in California.

Sometime before 2/1 here in Reno, both Wal Mart and WinCo for some reason did a price increase on Dozen Large White Cage Free Eggs to 3.96. It is strange because Smiths/Target are still 2.79 for a dozen, Trader Joe's 2.89, the various Jacksons gas stations around town 2.99, Safeway 3.49 for a dozen, Save Mart still 5.29 for a dozen (clueless clueless and clueless), Raleys 3.98 for a dozen... Also I've been watching at WinCo as those Cluster Tomatoes which were 1.98/lb for weeks went to 2.98 last week and now this weekend went to 3.98 yet the price for those at Smiths of 1.99/lb and Safeway at 3.49/lb is unchanged for the past few months. I am wondering if some of these stores like Wal Mart and WinCo are doing funny things to pricing around the first of the month when they get a surge of customers.

Eggs are probably a worthy topic for a new thread. The prices are exploding everywhere. Another shortage. Winco was selling one dozen for $2.14, but the sign said additional packages were $6.80. Something comparable for 18 packs, $2.97 limit one, additional $8 something each. Walmart was over $5 for a dozen Great Value. Ralphs is $3.99 a dozen, $5.89 for 18 pack Kroger brand. Albertsons is $3.99 a dozen, $5.79 for 18 pack Lucerne. Sam's Club is $4.22 for 2 dozen but they're completely sold out of all eggs period. Aldi is $2.49 a dozen. Haven't checked Costco but there is something wrong with their eggs and I stopped buying there... The shells break too easily, as if they are thinner than other eggs. They must be feeding their chickens bad feed or something. They break over time in the fridge. I thought it was just me but I have heard the same from others.

[CalItalian]

I read it as their California market is down 4% to 5%. The comparison to Sprouts and Albertsons is very relevant here as I suspect their results are more in line with the overall market, maybe even underperforming to it.

I am not sure how Walmart is doing, but with their lack of sale prices in foods and massive price increases have to be sending customers to the competition. Their food aisles are empty of customers and they don't seem to care.

Costco is also delivering massive price increases in foods right now. I suspect that their household goods, furniture, electronics etc. aren't moving well enough to absorb cost increases in food anymore. I was shocked last week as nearly every food item had gone up between $1 and $5, with fresh newly printed price signs. If you told me they raised prices on over a thousand food items I would believe you. Meanwhile the exact same couch that was $2999 last year is $1999 this year and just got an additional $300 discount.

Is Winco a factor in all of their California markets? I keep having to park further away from their store here because the lot is more packed than when I first moved here.

Trader Joe's is also hyper busy but we all know they can't replace a conventional supermarket.

I'm also not sold on California population actually decreasing either. @Bagels was onto something when he said that he was seeing many more out of state plates. I think tax evasion fraud is at an all time high. I'm getting ads on Instagram from little mailbox places in Montana and North Dakota offering residency services where they help you re-register your cars, get a drivers license, and they basically give you a false address of their shop. With California's high taxes, using one of these services is like clipping coupons as you'll give yourself a 10% or more raise if you have remote work and thus can claim you're working in an income tax free state. Think about it: everywhere you look they're plopping down 1000+ unit mega apartment complexes and they're filling up within 6 months of completion. Obviously there is a discrepancy in the population figures, and although the local news loves to report on U-Haul trucks outbound nobody asks what inbound figures are.

I have to conclude this is a Raley's problem, not a industry problem in California.

Sometime before 2/1 here in Reno, both Wal Mart and WinCo for some reason did a price increase on Dozen Large White Cage Free Eggs to 3.96. It is strange because Smiths/Target are still 2.79 for a dozen, Trader Joe's 2.89, the various Jacksons gas stations around town 2.99, Safeway 3.49 for a dozen, Save Mart still 5.29 for a dozen (clueless clueless and clueless), Raleys 3.98 for a dozen... Also I've been watching at WinCo as those Cluster Tomatoes which were 1.98/lb for weeks went to 2.98 last week and now this weekend went to 3.98 yet the price for those at Smiths of 1.99/lb and Safeway at 3.49/lb is unchanged for the past few months. I am wondering if some of these stores like Wal Mart and WinCo are doing funny things to pricing around the first of the month when they get a surge of customers.

Eggs are probably a worthy topic for a new thread. The prices are exploding everywhere. Another shortage. Winco was selling one dozen for $2.14, but the sign said additional packages were $6.80. Something comparable for 18 packs, $2.97 limit one, additional $8 something each. Walmart was over $5 for a dozen Great Value. Ralphs is $3.99 a dozen, $5.89 for 18 pack Kroger brand. Albertsons is $3.99 a dozen, $5.79 for 18 pack Lucerne. Sam's Club is $4.22 for 2 dozen but they're completely sold out of all eggs period. Aldi is $2.49 a dozen. Haven't checked Costco but there is something wrong with their eggs and I stopped buying there... The shells break too easily, as if they are thinner than other eggs. They must be feeding their chickens bad feed or something. They break over time in the fridge. I thought it was just me but I have heard the same from others.

Albertsons & Vons are $2.97 for a dozen large eggs. It's in the ad this week. There is no shortage of eggs in Southern California only Northern California.