Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Knight »

DFWRetaileWatcher wrote: September 16th, 2021, 11:15 am
Knight wrote: September 14th, 2021, 10:11 am
Bagels wrote: September 12th, 2021, 6:38 pmBut ultimately there's a cost to this; the SN, for example, asserted that Publix would fail in a market like Texas, that was largely price-driven.
Publix could succeed in Texas being price competitive.
Texas (especially the Dallas and Houston markets) is way too competitive for Publix.

Plus, I'm pretty sure it's too far removed from its distribution network.
Publix has competed with and has acquired Albertson's stores, and competes against Kroger. H-E-B would be the competitor.

Publix's farthest west distribution center would be in McCalla, Alabama. At the farthest stretches, it can support the future stores to open in Kentucky, and a possible entry in Louisiana. Texas would necessitate a new distribution center.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by TempoNick »

Comments:

1. In Atlanta, Kroger maintained their market share. Publix's share came from A&P, W-D, Big Star and others. If Kroger can hold on in an upscale city like Atlanta, it'll have no problem in Nashville and Louisville. In other words, Kroger knows how to compete against Publix.

2. Yes, Kentucky is more Southeast than Midwest. However, most of it's population hugs the Ohio River. Therefore, more of it's business orbit is going to align more with the Midwest, particularly Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago and dare I say, St. Louis? (Also Huntington, WV, but that's not the Midwest.)

3. Meijer has about 7% or 8% of the Louisville market. That's slightly less than the norm for them, but that's okay. That's enough for them since they don't go into urban locations. I don't know which distribution center serves Louisville, but if it's the one in Tipp City, Ohio, that's kind of a haul. One of the reasons they haven't added stores is that Chicago, Wisconsin and now Cleveland were higher priorities for them. They seem to be doing well in NE Ohio.

4. Meijer's newest stores in NE Ohio are fancy enough. They have great produce and meats and their price is hard to beat. Meijer's shoppers are loyal.

5. I don't know specifically about Louisville, but Meijer tends to locate in the suburbs.

6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once.

7. Meijer's not going to lose market share to Publix. They are a one-of-a-kind operation and the people who like them really like them. Kroger may lose some market share just because there is no other large grocer, but I predict it won't be much. Kroger has good pricing and is the longtime incumbent.

8. I don't think Publix is going to make much of a dent either in Louisville or Nashville because there is nobody to steal share from. Harris-Teeter didn't do much in Nashville. Publix may do well in Cool Springs, Franklin and all the ritzy areas, but I don't see them making much of a dent in the more modest parts of Nashville just because Kroger is priced right. Nashville is hot these days, but it's still no Atlanta.

Just my opinion based on nothing other than my own opinion.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by veteran+ »

"6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once."

Respectfully may I respond>>>>>>

They are frequently considered the best with trade publications and industry talking heads. That, is not supported by customers and "surveys" (or even employees).

I can only speak about Kroger properties in California, Colorado and Arizona. I worked for them in California and Colorado and also loyally shopped at their stores for decades. I was also heavily invested in their stock.

As they destroyed companies they absorbed the decline was overtly obvious. The customer and employee has NO voice but they pretend to listen (they do NOT).
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Romr123 »

Meijer has been (re)learning from Fresh Thyme how to run a 35k sqft grocery store in city/urban locations--they're opening this week one in Detroit near downtown (their other two stores in Detroit are full-on 160k sqft stores in more suburban parts of the city...note that Kroger ran screaming away from Detroit 20 years ago).

If they need to compete with Publix in Louisville this is what they'll do, clearly.

They've got a couple prototypes out there--one in Grand Rapids, another in Royal Oak that opened right before the pandemic in the parking lot of one of the big hospitals, replacing a Kroger. That store is very interesting, as it has no in-store packaging (meat is quite high-end locally packaged/processed case ready, and all deli and bakery is pre-packaged), but has full produce, a huge amount of local grab and go (literally from every local place around--they've reached out extensively to help local restaurants/entrepreneurs along in their sourcing...and are clearly using these as pipelines into bigger Meijer). At opening, they had huge freezer cases of self-serve scooped frozen entrees (they had to re-architect after COVID to pre-packaging bulk tubs of the stuff). Concept looks interesting, and is quite appropriate for the neighborhood. Self-check-out; initially they would not take manufacturer's coupons but I think that's been changed). They don't run the same ad as Meijer, but the pricing feels quite fair (nonfoods especially)and competitive with the local specialty stores in the neighborhood (which have very good reputations but, can be eyewateringly $$$)

Should they feel the need to compete in Louisville with Publix, they can slap a few of these in on the east side between their existing locations and there you go...Publix dispensed with (from their standpoint). It's feels like a very low-shrink environment (self-check notwithstanding) so can accommodate low volumes but with the "cred" of Meijer's produce and selection. They can calibrate the meat/deli/grab and go pretty easily to the neighborhood.

Interesting times.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Romr123 »

(quote) 4. Meijer's newest stores in NE Ohio are fancy enough. They have great produce and meats and their price is hard to beat. Meijer's shoppers are loyal.
We recently visited the Amherst, OH location (replaced the Super KMart at Rt 2/Hwy 58)...there's another location about 7 miles away in Avon. The store was quite nice...there was a surprising amount of localization of decor (entry featuring the African-American female store manager and the store's affiliation with Lorain County NAACP; the produce department "local' banners were for Ohio farmers). Store looked quite attractive...they scraped and rebuilt the Super K. (the Super K was a nice store too in it's day, and was one of the last ones to close)

They've come up with an interesting "modularity" which I think will serve them pretty well...they're clearly going into new territories with their traditional hypermarket, but they have the grocery credibility to make infill with smaller stores reasonable---as mentioned upthread, start out with a smaller, low-shrink environment with full produce, then modular-ly swap in/out the shrink-ridden departments if there is a specific local expectation/requirement for a department. They were famous for building the original Thrifty Acres stores with very thick floors (to facilitate conversion to a car dealer should they not succeed...the analogous thing here will be to invest in some incremental additional plumbing along the sides to suit a/some coffee bar/service deli/fish/service meat/bake-off module.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by jamcool »

veteran+ wrote: September 21st, 2021, 8:48 am "6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once."

Respectfully may I respond>>>>>>

They are frequently considered the best with trade publications and industry talking heads. That, is not supported by customers and "surveys" (or even employees).

I can only speak about Kroger properties in California, Colorado and Arizona. I worked for them in California and Colorado and also loyally shopped at their stores for decades. I was also heavily invested in their stock.

As they destroyed companies they absorbed the decline was overtly obvious. The customer and employee has NO voice but they pretend to listen (they do NOT).
Fry’s in the Dillon days wasn’t a great operation in Arizona due to Dillon’s financial problems (Smitty’s was the market leader in Phx in those days) It wasn’t until Kroger took over that Fry’s started building bigger and better stores.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by TempoNick »

veteran+ wrote: September 21st, 2021, 8:48 am "6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once."

Respectfully may I respond>>>>>>

They are frequently considered the best with trade publications and industry talking heads. That, is not supported by customers and "surveys" (or even employees).

I can only speak about Kroger properties in California, Colorado and Arizona. I worked for them in California and Colorado and also loyally shopped at their stores for decades. I was also heavily invested in their stock.

As they destroyed companies they absorbed the decline was overtly obvious. The customer and employee has NO voice but they pretend to listen (they do NOT).
Grab their factbook. They are number one or number two in almost all of their important markets. They've slipped a little in Houston, but I can't think of another major area where anybody is able to touch them. Publix isn't all that. Comparing Kroger to Publix is like comparing Target to Meijer ... (arguably) fancier looking stores, better looking women shopping there. Otherwise, Meijer has more stuff and at better prices.

Edit: Here is the link. The only one of their core markets where there is a "no" is Houston. The rest are either markets that they've acquired or have been building up from what I see. I may be off here or there, but I think this generally holds true.

https://s1.q4cdn.com/137099145/files/do ... _FINAL.pdf

Starting on Page 59
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by TempoNick »

Romr123 wrote: September 21st, 2021, 9:06 am replaced the Super KMart at Rt 2/Hwy 58
I'd love to know why they had to replace those Super K buildings. They have reused some of them, but are tearing them down more recently. I'd love to know why.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by arizonaguy »

jamcool wrote: September 21st, 2021, 9:40 am
veteran+ wrote: September 21st, 2021, 8:48 am "6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once."

Respectfully may I respond>>>>>>

They are frequently considered the best with trade publications and industry talking heads. That, is not supported by customers and "surveys" (or even employees).

I can only speak about Kroger properties in California, Colorado and Arizona. I worked for them in California and Colorado and also loyally shopped at their stores for decades. I was also heavily invested in their stock.

As they destroyed companies they absorbed the decline was overtly obvious. The customer and employee has NO voice but they pretend to listen (they do NOT).
Fry’s in the Dillon days wasn’t a great operation in Arizona due to Dillon’s financial problems (Smitty’s was the market leader in Phx in those days) It wasn’t until Kroger took over that Fry’s started building bigger and better stores.
Actually it wasn't until the mid - late 2000s that Fry's built bigger and better stores. Most of the 1980s - early 2000s built stores from both the Dillon and Kroger days are relatively dumpy and outdated (especially compared to Kroger stores built during that era in the Midwest and Southeast). The best "older" stores in the Fry's chain are the large former Smith's stores that were built in the 1990s. Fry's is an extremely inconsistent retailer from location to location. Some of their stores are amazing but some look like a full service Food4Less. They are #1 in Phoenix because they used to (although it's been dialed back a bit) sponsor and advertise every event and on every medium in Phoenix and they had mastered the slightly better quality at a slightly higher price than Walmart concept and they also (through the mergers of Smith's, Smitty's, and Fry's) have locations pretty much everywhere in the developed and developing parts of the metro area.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by veteran+ »

TempoNick wrote: September 21st, 2021, 1:55 pm
veteran+ wrote: September 21st, 2021, 8:48 am "6. Why all the negging on Kroger? They are considered the best in the industry and deservedly so. Kroger's store fleet might be mixed but that's what happens when you are the incumbent retailer. You can't replace all 3,000 stores at once."

Respectfully may I respond>>>>>>

They are frequently considered the best with trade publications and industry talking heads. That, is not supported by customers and "surveys" (or even employees).

I can only speak about Kroger properties in California, Colorado and Arizona. I worked for them in California and Colorado and also loyally shopped at their stores for decades. I was also heavily invested in their stock.

As they destroyed companies they absorbed the decline was overtly obvious. The customer and employee has NO voice but they pretend to listen (they do NOT).
Grab their factbook. They are number one or number two in almost all of their important markets. They've slipped a little in Houston, but I can't think of another major area where anybody is able to touch them. Publix isn't all that. Comparing Kroger to Publix is like comparing Target to Meijer ... (arguably) fancier looking stores, better looking women shopping there. Otherwise, Meijer has more stuff and at better prices.

Edit: Here is the link. The only one of their core markets where there is a "no" is Houston. The rest are either markets that they've acquired or have been building up from what I see. I may be off here or there, but I think this generally holds true.

https://s1.q4cdn.com/137099145/files/do ... _FINAL.pdf

Starting on Page 59
Yes I agree and understand but market share is does not always mean you are the best.

Most recently the "real" reviews on Ralphs by customers is not good and their employees are not happy. I hear from friends that King Soopers is slipping as well but not as bad as Ralphs.
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