Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Predicting the demise of Sears & Kmart since 2017!
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Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by cathandler »

It's about time to blow taps for Sears and Kmart...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-s-future
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by jamcool »

If Sears folds what happens to the big mall owners, the GGPs, the Macerichs, etc?
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by Alpha8472 »

I read a news article about how some malls are trying to get grocery stores to take over empty mall spaces. The theory is that people will always need groceries and that grocery stores will be around longer than department stores.

Will this really do anything for the rest of the mall? Grocery shoppers usually don't stay around after grocery shopping.

If Sears admits they are doing poorly, then the end is near. They may be advertising for other companies to come in and buy pieces of the company.
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by architect »

jamcool wrote:If Sears folds what happens to the big mall owners, the GGPs, the Macerichs, etc?
Honestly, the Simons, GGPs, Macerich, Westfield-level owners will be able to fill Sears' departure in creative ways. The majority of their properties are still in good shape, and could be filled out with an unconventional tenants. During the late 2000's, these companies took an active role in pruning down their portfolios, particularly GGP due to their bankruptcy. The malls which will struggle the most are the level C and under properties, most of which are owned by lower-tier companies and cannot afford to lose anchor traffic. For example, in DFW, I expect Plano's Collin Creek Mall, Fort Worth's Ridgmar Mall, Dallas' Southwest Center, and Irving Mall to crater towards oblivion upon Sears' closure. All of these malls are owned by second-tier owners, and Sears is one of the only stores propping them up. On the other hand, Sears' anchor locations at Stonebriar Center, North East Mall and the Parks at Arlington will likely be replaced by entertainment tenants or other complementary uses. Hulen Mall, Town East Mall, and Vista Ridge Mall will all feel the weight of Sears' departure, but could potentially fill the vacated spaces if an appropriate anchor could be found. In particular, at Hulen, I could see JCPenney moving into the current Sears anchor as an excuse to close their Ridgmar store.
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by wnetmacman »

Alpha8472 wrote:If Sears admits they are doing poorly, then the end is near. They may be advertising for other companies to come in and buy pieces of the company.
This was the part of yesterday's statement that got to me. Up until now, it's been 'challenging, but approachable with asset sales'. Now, it's possible they cannot continue. It isn't a surprise, but the first admission of what we all knew: Sears cannot survive without KCD: Kenmore, Craftsman and Die Hard. And now that the C is gone, K and D aren't as valuable, thus the end may be near (finally).

I think Fast Eddie has used up his credit line. This morning, reports are that vendors are starting to hold shipments, because their insurers won't back the invoices. That was what put Kmart into Chapter 11 in 2002.
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by cathandler »

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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by Super S »

architect wrote:
jamcool wrote:If Sears folds what happens to the big mall owners, the GGPs, the Macerichs, etc?
Honestly, the Simons, GGPs, Macerich, Westfield-level owners will be able to fill Sears' departure in creative ways. The majority of their properties are still in good shape, and could be filled out with an unconventional tenants. During the late 2000's, these companies took an active role in pruning down their portfolios, particularly GGP due to their bankruptcy. The malls which will struggle the most are the level C and under properties, most of which are owned by lower-tier companies and cannot afford to lose anchor traffic. For example, in DFW, I expect Plano's Collin Creek Mall, Fort Worth's Ridgmar Mall, Dallas' Southwest Center, and Irving Mall to crater towards oblivion upon Sears' closure. All of these malls are owned by second-tier owners, and Sears is one of the only stores propping them up. On the other hand, Sears' anchor locations at Stonebriar Center, North East Mall and the Parks at Arlington will likely be replaced by entertainment tenants or other complementary uses. Hulen Mall, Town East Mall, and Vista Ridge Mall will all feel the weight of Sears' departure, but could potentially fill the vacated spaces if an appropriate anchor could be found. In particular, at Hulen, I could see JCPenney moving into the current Sears anchor as an excuse to close their Ridgmar store.
What will happen is that the better mall operators will be creative and try to fill the vacant spaces. The others will likely let the malls continue to deteriorate. GGP in particular did not seem to care about malls in smaller towns such as South Shore Mall in Aberdeen, WA or Three Rivers Mall in Kelso. Under GGP, South Shore Mall lost a JCPenney several years back as well as a Kmart around 2002-2003. That mall now is probably 60-75% vacant and has a Sears as the only remaining anchor, but is now under local ownership. Three Rivers (which was spun off to Rouse) is doing a little better but is still about half vacant. They did build a new theatre in the former Sears space and Sportsman's Warehouse opened in a former Emporium that was mostly vacant (under GGP) for 10+ years. It will be interesting to see what happens with the soon to close Macy's space.

But we are seeing a level of store closings of all kinds never seen before, and many spaces are not being filled. Sears does generate foot traffic and a wider customer base thanks to the presence of hardlines departments. The closing of Sears will definitely have an impact.
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by Super S »

What I am also curious to know is, if Sears in fact does close, what will happen with the Sears Hometown stores. I realize that they are not directly owned by Sears, but will these stores be on their own as far as merchandise? Will they end up changing their name to avoid confusion? Will they be dealing with warranties of products sold at regular Sears and Kmart stores?
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by BillyGr »

Super S wrote:What I am also curious to know is, if Sears in fact does close, what will happen with the Sears Hometown stores. I realize that they are not directly owned by Sears, but will these stores be on their own as far as merchandise? Will they end up changing their name to avoid confusion? Will they be dealing with warranties of products sold at regular Sears and Kmart stores?
How are they done now - the company supplying the merchandise in basically a "franchise" setup?

Seems that could continue to occur - Sears the corporate side could just close up their storefronts and become a wholesale (or possibly a wholesale and online) operation?

As to warranties, there might be a separate setup for those - I know for many years after Wards left this area (a few years before the final closing), they still had a spot that had been their repair facility open for people to get things fixed or whatever, so sears might do similarly (they have, or did have, similar separate places for repairs).
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Re: Sears Warns of ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Company's Future

Post by storewanderer »

This is likely something their auditors/accountants required them to disclose, vs. something they chose to disclose on their own. What is surprising to me is they got this far without having a going concern disclosure. There are accounting standards that dictate the symptoms that necessitate the going concern disclosure.

I would actually expect a big expansion of Sears Dealer Stores if the main chain folds...
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