Retail Watchers

storewanderer wrote: ↑May 20th, 2020, 10:28 pm

babs wrote: ↑May 20th, 2020, 10:20 pm
I don't buy the Amazon rumor. I don't believe they have any interest in it. The mall locations would be lousy for fulfillment purposes and Amazon has been building so many warehouses, I don't think they need to use mall space for warehousing. As for opening them up as retail stores, WHY??? Their model works. Whole Foods was a fresh grocery play but this I don't get.

If Amazon wanted JCP, why in the heck did they not express interest until AFTER the bankruptcy filing? The chain has been on the ropes for a while. I think it is a bogus rumor.

I don't see how this is a fit for Amazon, either, but just hypothetically -- if they were to buy JCP through the bankruptcy process, they can influence which leases are rejected and which are not. They wouldn't have that option outside of Chapter 11.

Stores here can open at 25% capacity for about two weeks now. JCPenney has still not reopened, although Belk and Bealls have, with reduced hours.

I'm not sure I buy into the whole Covid will be the death of brick and mortar retail. I think the whole idea that people are will be afraid to go out is overblown. I'm seeing many people want to get out and are doing so to an extent as their states are reopening. I think a lot of that is just media over-negativity about the virus.

In the past few months we kept hearing about this "brave new world" scenario and "new normal" crap. In these last few weeks I'm not buying it. I think the stores that were on the way out before coronavirus are going out anyway. This may have sped things up, but those that are staying will still be here after this is over.

kr.abs.swy wrote: ↑May 21st, 2020, 10:40 am

storewanderer wrote: ↑May 20th, 2020, 10:28 pm

babs wrote: ↑May 20th, 2020, 10:20 pm
I don't buy the Amazon rumor. I don't believe they have any interest in it. The mall locations would be lousy for fulfillment purposes and Amazon has been building so many warehouses, I don't think they need to use mall space for warehousing. As for opening them up as retail stores, WHY??? Their model works. Whole Foods was a fresh grocery play but this I don't get.

If Amazon wanted JCP, why in the heck did they not express interest until AFTER the bankruptcy filing? The chain has been on the ropes for a while. I think it is a bogus rumor.

I don't see how this is a fit for Amazon, either, but just hypothetically -- if they were to buy JCP through the bankruptcy process, they can influence which leases are rejected and which are not. They wouldn't have that option outside of Chapter 11.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense to me either. I know Amazon got kind of involved with Sears by selling Kenmore appliances and Sears Auto Centers were installing tires purchased from Amazon. So I could see a partnership with JCP to an extent if they were to stay around. But if they were to buy a retailer, why buy this company, out of so many others?

It seems like every failing company floats rumors that Amazon is looking into buying it. A few weeks ago it was floated that Amazon was looking into buying AMC Theatres. Amazon has also been floated around as a buyer of Albertsons and Safeway in the past.

cjd wrote: ↑May 21st, 2020, 2:38 pm Stores here can open at 25% capacity for about two weeks now. JCPenney has still not reopened, although Belk and Bealls have, with reduced hours.

I'm not sure I buy into the whole Covid will be the death of brick and mortar retail. I think the whole idea that people are will be afraid to go out is overblown. I'm seeing many people want to get out and are doing so to an extent as their states are reopening. I think a lot of that is just media over-negativity about the virus.

In the past few months we kept hearing about this "brave new world" scenario and "new normal" crap. In these last few weeks I'm not buying it. I think the stores that were on the way out before coronavirus are going out anyway. This may have sped things up, but those that are staying will still be here after this is over.

You're right. But, the loss of revenue from having to close for the virus has pushed these retailers that were on the edge off the brink.

When you look at online polls and I know I shouldn't put much weight into them, but you see 75-85% of people expecting ongoing changes forever because of this virus (not sure what changes specifically these polls are referring to), it is really interesting. Most people I know just want this to be done and want to get back to life again. Yet, people are still scared of doing various things. For some people it will be going in an airplane. For some people it will be going to a restaurant. It all depends on the person.

arizonaguy wrote: ↑May 21st, 2020, 3:28 pm It seems like every failing company floats rumors that Amazon is looking into buying it. A few weeks ago it was floated that Amazon was looking into buying AMC Theatres. Amazon has also been floated around as a buyer of Albertsons and Safeway in the past.

Doesn't Amazon already have a partnership of some sort with Kohl's?

Let me give you guys my real take on all of this:

JCPenney has had a massive identity crisis for 20-30 years. They don't know what to sell to who at what price. They've had issues keeping CEO's that were focused on more than just leaving their mark on the business. To me, JCP can be a lot of things, especially in apparel and home. They cannot be a full line retailer, and they cannot be everywhere.

That being said, the current situation has really thrown every retailer for a loop, and JCP was not unharmed. The filing came a small surprise because the did make that payement.

Current estimates show about 29% of the store base closing down. I suspect when a list rears its ugly head, it will include a large number of mall based stores, HOWEVER;

Amazon is interested in 2 aspects of JCP: the insanely large mall stores and their apparel business. Amazon needs space now. JCP would give them 840+ outlets plus a tested distribution system AND the apparel they so badly lack in. It would also give immediate retail to a company whose only local outlets are overpriced Whole Paycheck Foods, which didn't help the bottom line. I suspect the holdup to the closing list is that Amazon wants all or none.

If the purchase goes through, there WILL be changes at Penney, but I suspect it will be the rollout of the store in Texas because Amazon can afford it, and a downsizing of virtually every store for fulfillment centers.

storewanderer wrote: ↑May 21st, 2020, 11:35 pmYou're right. But, the loss of revenue from having to close for the virus has pushed these retailers that were on the edge off the brink.

When you look at online polls and I know I shouldn't put much weight into them, but you see 75-85% of people expecting ongoing changes forever because of this virus (not sure what changes specifically these polls are referring to), it is really interesting. Most people I know just want this to be done and want to get back to life again. Yet, people are still scared of doing various things. For some people it will be going in an airplane. For some people it will be going to a restaurant. It all depends on the person.

Yeah, I wouldn't put much stock into that. A high percentage of people also claimed to be afraid of opening the country back up. Yet this afternoon when I went out I saw many parking lots that were packed, especially at stores that recently opened like Bed Bath, Beyond, Ross and Marshalls. I hadn't seem them that busy since December. It really looked like a typical Friday of a holiday weekend. A few weeks ago or a month or two back, it would have been a completely different scene.

I'm sure there may be some changes for a while, but look at events like the Spanish Flu, it was way worse than this and I don't think there are really many things that we still have today that were directly related to it. So with that, I don't think anything we have right now is staying for years, especially if a vaccine or other advancement comes out. Even if not I think people are only willing to go to such extremes for so long.

As for restaurants I am still staying away for now. Most people I know have already been dining in multiple times, so I'm pretty conservative on that. And forget a plane right now, or the gym, for me!

arizonaguy wrote: ↑May 21st, 2020, 3:28 pm It seems like every failing company floats rumors that Amazon is looking into buying it. A few weeks ago it was floated that Amazon was looking into buying AMC Theatres. Amazon has also been floated around as a buyer of Albertsons and Safeway in the past.

Wow, I hadn't heard about those. But it doesn't surprise me that much given Sears and now Penney's.

wnetmacman wrote: ↑May 22nd, 2020, 2:51 pmAmazon is interested in 2 aspects of JCP: the insanely large mall stores and their apparel business. Amazon needs space now. JCP would give them 840+ outlets plus a tested distribution system AND the apparel they so badly lack in. It would also give immediate retail to a company whose only local outlets are overpriced Whole Paycheck Foods, which didn't help the bottom line. I suspect the holdup to the closing list is that Amazon wants all or none.

I would think Amazon could come up with a better clothing line that what JCPenney offers these days around here. Their quality had really gotten rather cheap, although I will give them that most of their private labels had good name recognition.

Here’s an interesting article that goes into what an Amazon owned JC Penney might look like: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... -like.aspx

I am kind of hoping that Amazon is serious about this! Plus it also has a space in Seattle that they could put in a Amazon designed department store where they would have a blank slate! They could put in a JC Penney or more likely a Amazon branded department store in the old Bon Marche/Macy’s space in Downtown Seattle! It would make sense as Amazon has offices in that building!