Department Stores and Coronavirus

[TW-Upstate NY]

Scene outside the local TJ Maxx on RE-opening day. Have never set foot in this store but did venture into one of their units some time ago and based on what I remember about it I have no idea what the attraction is.

[BillyGr]

Probably a cross between the way people show up to a grand opening (which it sort of is, having been closed for such a time) and the fact that after 3 months people are just happy to be able to go somewhere different.

After a few days, and as more places open up in each given area it will likely be much more like it used to be in terms of how busy each store is (other than probably a few more customers at those stores that are now planning to close permanently, as usually happens with any going out of business store).

[storewanderer]

This weekend I saw no line ups at multiple Ross and Marshalls Stores (did not go by TJ Maxx). In fact business looked very slow at the Ross and Marshalls Stores this weekend.

[Alpha8472]

The TJX distribution centers are not at full staffing due to social distancing. It will take time to return to normal inventory. That is why many stores look like they were raided. Some stores were also looted.

There is very little merchandise on the racks and you cannot try on the clothes since the fitting rooms are closed. They might as well be closed.

[cjd]

This weekend I saw no line ups at multiple Ross and Marshalls Stores (did not go by TJ Maxx). In fact business looked very slow at the Ross and Marshalls Stores this weekend.

Probably as mentioned above people were at first excited just to go out. Friday before Memorial Day weekend they were packed here at Ross. LInes outside still the next weekend, after that no wait to go in. But I won't be back for a while, I agree they almost may as well not be open. I've never seen it look that bad inside as well as Marshalls. Although it was certainly not slow as far as customers despite that.

Bealls Outlet was doing just fine, perfectly normal, maybe slightly less selection but not by much. I guess either their distribution channels are still doing well or they never sold out, but there was definitely a normal crowd shopping last weekend.

[storewanderer]

I think overall these reopenings of the retail stores are going iffy at best. At some point I would expect business to go up again but I have to think with the stay at home orders there is simply going to be less demand for clothing, especially certain types of clothing. Kids sitting at home will not cause the wear and tear on clothing that going to school and running around causes, but they will outgrow the clothing and it'll need to be replaced for that reason. But the adult who used to wear business casual to work and is now staying home and wearing casual at best or maybe throws on a nice shirt for an hour for a video call then ditches it for the t-shirt for the rest of the day is going to wear so much less clothing out over this time period.

There is a debate on some other retail websites about some retailers just "packing stuff up" to sell next year. Frankly at this point I think that may be the right idea. The criticism is the styles won't be current. I think these critics are giving the customer too much credit for knowing what style is. I know there are a lot of reasons both ways for why to clearance now or why to pack up and save for next year but this is an unusual situation this year and selling winter clothing in June for 90-95% off seems like a tough thing to do when much of it is perfectly fine for next year and could be sold with less of a discount. We would screw up China's production cycle that is so used to the "produce produce produce" consumption cycle for all this clothing, but so be it. The whole world basically shut down including those factories.

[cjd]

I think overall these reopenings of the retail stores are going iffy at best. At some point I would expect business to go up again but I have to think with the stay at home orders there is simply going to be less demand for clothing, especially certain types of clothing. Kids sitting at home will not cause the wear and tear on clothing that going to school and running around causes, but they will outgrow the clothing and it'll need to be replaced for that reason. But the adult who used to wear business casual to work and is now staying home and wearing casual at best or maybe throws on a nice shirt for an hour for a video call then ditches it for the t-shirt for the rest of the day is going to wear so much less clothing out over this time period.

There is a debate on some other retail websites about some retailers just "packing stuff up" to sell next year. Frankly at this point I think that may be the right idea. The criticism is the styles won't be current. I think these critics are giving the customer too much credit for knowing what style is. I know there are a lot of reasons both ways for why to clearance now or why to pack up and save for next year but this is an unusual situation this year and selling winter clothing in June for 90-95% off seems like a tough thing to do when much of it is perfectly fine for next year and could be sold with less of a discount. We would screw up China's production cycle that is so used to the "produce produce produce" consumption cycle for all this clothing, but so be it. The whole world basically shut down including those factories.

Nobody really knows if next year will be "normal" for retailers or not. It could be at least 5 years, or even decades if business gets back to normal again and people start going out often for certain. As long as people are working or staying at home and the economy is uncertain they probably won't be shopping much for non-necessities. But on the other hand they do still be shopping in places where they can, for how long, who knows.

[Brian Lutz]

Here the Ross, TJX and Burlington stores just reopened this weekend, and most had lines to get in. At Burlington, some people reported rather long waits, and with the store showing a capacity of 240 people I'm guessing the place was going to be packed if they were reaching that capacity limit (under normal circumstances I wouldn't expect to see more than 20-30 customers at a time.) We did find one Marshall's with no line (my wife needed a new suitcase) and it didn't seem excessively crowded. I would expect things to settle down soon, but there's definitely a backlog for the time being. The Marshall's seemed reasonably well stocked, but there was still some Easter merchandise on the shelves. Didn't get a look at any of the Ross or TJMaxx stores here, but I've heard Ross stores are a bit low on stock (although that can happen even under normal circumstances.)

[buckguy]

Given that shelter in place orders began when it was still technically winter and now we're in official summer, there probably is some normal seasonal demand for clothing that's been pent-up, plus children grow and so kids clothing may actually be a bright spot for retailers. Retailers increasingly have been saving utilitarian stuff at the end of the season for "next year"----you see this with things most obviously such as gloves on common colors (like black) and sizes, which don't get marked down at the end of the season and re-appear next fall. Staples like socks, underwear, dress shirts, athletic ts, etc. also are likely to fall into these categories---if they do it already, it's probably easy for them to scaleup stockpiling of seasonal stuff like this, as well as year round staples like socks and underwear. The truly "fashionable" stuff will be more of a problem and I'd imagine that people are expecting markdowns or bigger stocks at TJMaxx, Marshall's, etc. A lot of that carries a higher markup because it is more of a gamble to order, which gives retailers some cushion if they have to take steep markdowns.

[jamcool]

I noticed that Barnes & Noble still has not restocked their magazine stands with the current issues, most of them are still March/April. It used to be that the publishers took back the previous issues.