Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Super S
Posts: 2690
Joined: April 1st, 2009, 9:27 pm
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 61 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by Super S »

storewanderer wrote: February 6th, 2021, 12:18 am
The stores in Rogue Valley Mall are actually quite good; well stocked, neat, and with friendly employees all around. Traffic seems to be marginal at the best of times (daytime) and extremely low at off times (evening), and I am surprised with how well stocked the stores there have been on my visits to Medford. The numbers must work out given the stores seem to be well stocked and well cared for. I'm not sure where the teens in Medford hang out- but it isn't that mall. The JCP seemed very dated.

I was first in the Rogue Valley Mall in 1992 and back then it was much more active. Most of the tenant spaces on both levels were full and in the evening the mall was very busy, full of families. As you point out, it had more food options like Taco Time which is long gone (it was still there maybe 10 years ago). I recall dinner there one night in what was a packed crowded food court in 1992. I remember the Wards and being very impressed it was a modern store and actually in the mall (I was used to Wards in Reno which was on Oddie Blvd.- wasn't the nicest store; and also knew of the Sunrise Wards and Florin Wards down in Sacramento area which were near but not at the malls).
Medford is far enough away from Portland that it probably doesn't suffer from the big crowds and/or crime present in larger towns. The employees are friendlier when they aren't constantly having to watch for shoplifters. I did notice on my last visit to Lloyd Center that nearly every store employee I encountered did not seem like they wanted to be there.

Teens today are used to the likes of Amazon etc. and are less likely to hang out in malls. Keep in mind that they are a generation that did not know a world without the internet.
buckguy
Store Manager
Store Manager
Posts: 1004
Joined: January 31st, 2017, 10:54 am
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 61 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by buckguy »

Pandemic aside, it's the slowest time of the year, so of course, places are dead. People are paying off their Christmas debts and it's too early for Easter/Spring merchandise to get traction. This is when stores often do their routine rounds of closings--not much inventory (unless its been a mild winter) and its easier to do a low key exit rather than making it easy for people to read too much into the closing of an unprofitable store at the end of its lease.

Small market malls seem to survive if they're a couple hours or more away from a super regional, and esp. if they have locations that approach the size of a normal suburban mall store.

One thing that is different now with malls is that there has been no new generation of national "mall store" chains in the last decade or so to keep inline mall spaces alive. When big boxes go into malls, it's usually w/o a mall entrance now. The chains that favor lifestyle centers will go into healthy super-regional, but not a middling mall. When classic mall stores leave, they are replaced by local stores of no distinction. When malls first opened, it was the local stores that were sought after and brought some prestige---the nationals were lower end chains that have almost entirely disappeared. Now the positions are reversed.
pseudo3d
Posts: 3851
Joined: November 12th, 2015, 7:01 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 77 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by pseudo3d »

buckguy wrote: February 7th, 2021, 5:08 pm Pandemic aside, it's the slowest time of the year, so of course, places are dead. People are paying off their Christmas debts and it's too early for Easter/Spring merchandise to get traction. This is when stores often do their routine rounds of closings--not much inventory (unless its been a mild winter) and its easier to do a low key exit rather than making it easy for people to read too much into the closing of an unprofitable store at the end of its lease.

Small market malls seem to survive if they're a couple hours or more away from a super regional, and esp. if they have locations that approach the size of a normal suburban mall store.

One thing that is different now with malls is that there has been no new generation of national "mall store" chains in the last decade or so to keep inline mall spaces alive. When big boxes go into malls, it's usually w/o a mall entrance now. The chains that favor lifestyle centers will go into healthy super-regional, but not a middling mall. When classic mall stores leave, they are replaced by local stores of no distinction. When malls first opened, it was the local stores that were sought after and brought some prestige---the nationals were lower end chains that have almost entirely disappeared. Now the positions are reversed.

Part of the problem is that it's astronomically expensive to start a small business nowadays (even before the most current woes), which means that they can never grow and expand. I suppose it's also the whole problem with brick and mortar retail in general, it blows my mind how on one hand analysts can claim "well, we have too much retail space as-is" while legacy retailers are taken over by hedge funds and stripped of assets instead of investing in the business.

There's no question that many retail chains were weakened by their own hand or the impact of online shopping, or malls driving out the old-line local retailers in favor of trendy chains in the 1990s, or just the changing tastes that makes the novelty of dozens of stores under one roof less of a thing than it used to be.

If a mall is on its way down, it can start by cultivating and promoting its own retail stores. One of the oldest stores in Post Oak Mall, for instance, continues to be Scripture Haven, a Christian bookstore that has been in the mall since the mid-1980s, yet has nearly quit over rent concerns. Filling a 100,000 square foot empty box is another problem altogether, but charity begins at home.
buckguy
Store Manager
Store Manager
Posts: 1004
Joined: January 31st, 2017, 10:54 am
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 61 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by buckguy »

Small businesses seem to incubate in old strip malls (in sprawlburgs) or streetside retail in urban neighborhoods and inner ring suburbs. These are often owned by small landlords who don't expect big rents and these stores and restaurants often are key to reviving these places. The mom and pops that go into malls often have generic or very odd merchandise and seem destined to fail. I always wonder if mall owners charge them just enough to keep the lights on, because I can't imagine these places lasting long otherwise. Regardless, no new destination businesses ever seem to emerge from hastily put together storefront in a mid-tier mall.

The lack of new "mall store" chains, though, is probably a sign that malls really are dead. If they can't replenish their spaces with retail that draws people, then they are finished.

The "too much retail" thing is real, though. The US has more retail space/person than Canada by multiples of 2 or 3. The US per capita income doesn't compensate for that. Ditto Western Europe. Retail construction outstripped population growth from the 70s to the Great Recession and I would guess that it's starting to do it again now. Because malls are dinosaurs and difficult to repurpose, it's taken a while for them to get turned into something else, but their demise is probably going to be needed in the long run. Commercial real estate is overheated with debt as it is which means retail space is threatened regardless.
Romr123
Assistant Store Manager
Assistant Store Manager
Posts: 693
Joined: February 1st, 2021, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 37 times
Been thanked: 56 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by Romr123 »

A-men! In and around Detroit, the only even semi-healthy malls left are Somerset and Twelve Oaks. Oakland, Southland and Briarwood (Ann Arbor) may have a little more viability (Oakland only because of the demise of Lakeside and Partridge Creek...the Chaldean community comes in from Sterling Heights; Briarwood from U-M and overall income levels; Southland because of isolation). I remember about 4 years ago needed to do some back-to-school type basics shopping in mid-August...decided to go to Oakland...realized that parking in a vast lot, trudging through acres of cars in a hot sun-baked parking lot for indifferent service was no bargain. I've been back exactly once since(to Macy's (Hudsons)...an immense 300k square foot store where their targeted FB advertising of their restaurant got me to go...had a lovely nostalgic lunch a year ago right before COVID---actually took my mother-in-law to lunch at Lakeside a couple weeks later again for a nostalgic lunch. (Hudson's did some amazing suburban stores in the day---Northland (1955-ish) was 500k square feet; Eastland (1958-ish) was about 350k when they thought the suburban stores had to be merchandised identically to downtown)

Seems amazing that there was legit talk about a superregional mall further out in Genoa Township (between Brighton and Howell) 15 miles past Twelve Oaks. Obviously that's dead as a doornail.

Went to Somerset before Christmas (again a nostalgia trip, though did buy a watch at Neiman's from a friend who's a personal shopper). Looks healthy there (as the A+ malls are in each city) but could quickly disintegrate.

Some talk about Lakeside being senior services, and Partridge Creek (amazingly bad timing opening open air in about 2008) may get a Macy's (both Nordstrom and Parisian/Carsons/BonTon are empty, and the 3rd big space is a movie theatre (seems only thing keeping the mall breathing is the Apple Store and the chain restaurants)
pseudo3d
Posts: 3851
Joined: November 12th, 2015, 7:01 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 77 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by pseudo3d »

buckguy wrote: February 9th, 2021, 5:16 am The "too much retail" thing is real, though. The US has more retail space/person than Canada by multiples of 2 or 3. The US per capita income doesn't compensate for that. Ditto Western Europe. Retail construction outstripped population growth from the 70s to the Great Recession and I would guess that it's starting to do it again now. Because malls are dinosaurs and difficult to repurpose, it's taken a while for them to get turned into something else, but their demise is probably going to be needed in the long run. Commercial real estate is overheated with debt as it is which means retail space is threatened regardless.
I just don't know. Even if there has been more retail than really necessary, it's hard to believe articles by overpaid blowhards (that are wrong half the time) to tell me that department stores are obsolete (when in reality they drove off customers like me with abysmal selection and poor staffing) or that there's no space for a third discount store (when in reality a hedge fund manager and his friends drained it of any and all resources it could've used to get a leg up).

One thing that is true, for whatever reason, the malls have definitely worked themselves into a hole, and I'm not sure what the solution is at this point, except to try to start over by having "non-traditional" retail like the old days (liquor stores, paint stores, etc.).
Super S
Posts: 2690
Joined: April 1st, 2009, 9:27 pm
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 61 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by Super S »

pseudo3d wrote: February 10th, 2021, 2:43 am

I just don't know. Even if there has been more retail than really necessary, it's hard to believe articles by overpaid blowhards (that are wrong half the time) to tell me that department stores are obsolete (when in reality they drove off customers like me with abysmal selection and poor staffing) or that there's no space for a third discount store (when in reality a hedge fund manager and his friends drained it of any and all resources it could've used to get a leg up).
Where department stores have failed is in not using the space in their larger locations efficiently. At one time, the larger stores were where you went if you wanted something not available in the smaller stores closer to home. I am going to use JCPenney as an example. The approx. 50K square foot store closest to me has a very poorly stocked mens department with a lot of wide open space. Not too long ago I was at the store at Clackamas Town Center, which is closer to 100K square feet and I still had a hard time finding what I was looking for and was surprised by how limited the sizing was given the larger store size. It wasn't much better. It's not always easy to order online when you don't keep track of things like an item number on a pair of pants which might vary from one store to the next and I prefer trying stuff on before I buy. Then you have stores such as Macy's, and more recently Fred Meyer, which do not stock anything above a 2XL regardless of how big the stores are. Even Walmart tends to stock certain items only seasonally. I recently had to take a gamble on buying some shirts online that I need for work and just hope that they fit properly.

There is room for improvement and a new retailer could make inroads if they could address the shortcomings of existing chains.
cjd
Assistant Store Manager
Assistant Store Manager
Posts: 624
Joined: August 18th, 2018, 6:54 am
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 6 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by cjd »

Super S wrote: February 10th, 2021, 7:13 amWhere department stores have failed is in not using the space in their larger locations efficiently. At one time, the larger stores were where you went if you wanted something not available in the smaller stores closer to home. I am going to use JCPenney as an example. The approx. 50K square foot store closest to me has a very poorly stocked mens department with a lot of wide open space. Not too long ago I was at the store at Clackamas Town Center, which is closer to 100K square feet and I still had a hard time finding what I was looking for and was surprised by how limited the sizing was given the larger store size. It wasn't much better. It's not always easy to order online when you don't keep track of things like an item number on a pair of pants which might vary from one store to the next and I prefer trying stuff on before I buy. Then you have stores such as Macy's, and more recently Fred Meyer, which do not stock anything above a 2XL regardless of how big the stores are. Even Walmart tends to stock certain items only seasonally. I recently had to take a gamble on buying some shirts online that I need for work and just hope that they fit properly.

There is room for improvement and a new retailer could make inroads if they could address the shortcomings of existing chains.
This is something that seems to be affecting all department stores. I saw it at JCPenney and its now at Belk. They have all this sales space that used to be filled with racks, tables, and floor to ceiling shelves along the walls of merchandise. Then they start moving all of that out and you just have blank walls and sparsely filled racks of clothes all spread out.

They're trying to make it look like there's more there than there is, but when this happens it's clear to me they are on their way out.

Why do they start decreasing selection and inventory? I don't know. It seems to exacebate the problems they're having in the first place. Not enough sales at a location? Decrease selection and inventory, and then anyone who does still come in won't find what they're looking for, and they go somewhere else.

If they do ask where it is? Go on our website, says the associate. Then the customer goes online to another retailer.

I think these stores must really know they are just about finished, so they have given up. It's amazing to me the difference between what my local Belk store looks like now, and what it looked like back in 2016, even 2019. It's a night and day difference, and quite depressing.

This used to be a nice place to shop. You almost couldn't get between the racks there was so much selection. Now it's like acres of wasted space.

I remember the same thing happened with JCPenney. Even non-clothing items. Take their housewares department for example. It used to have a wide selection of name brands. Want a KitchenAid mixer? They had it, they had sales and could compete with the other stores on price. After about 2017 or so it became a joke. Everything was spread out to look like they had a wide selection when there was very little in actuality. And everything became their own "Cooks" brand. No selection and totally uncompetitive. Nobody bothered looking at any of it whenever I was there.

To me these stores are just doing themselves in. Maybe they know they can't compete anymore with those cross shopping, maybe they know they can't compete with retailers that only do online sales, I dunno.

But I know the mall here is done for. The only large retailer they have left that seems properly staffed and stocked is Bealls. Only one fast food Chinese place left in the food court. Yeah they still have Bath and Body Works, Rack Room Shoes, GNC, Gamestop and Hibbetts, but what mall doesn't? Those aren't really destinations that are going to draw big crowds.

And a gym and a movie theater aren't going to draw traffic into the mall.

I agree how do these mom and pop locations purveying junk and weird items pay the rent? Even those seem to have all but gone from the mall here, leaving only empty spaces.
veteran+
Valued Contributor
Valued Contributor
Posts: 2234
Joined: January 3rd, 2015, 7:53 am
Has thanked: 1204 times
Been thanked: 72 times
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by veteran+ »

So true on all points!

And I hate online buying and everything associated with it.

The return industry is also destroying the environment with so much of it ending up in landfills (some of it in a separate resale industry).
storewanderer
Posts: 14379
Joined: February 23rd, 2009, 3:54 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 298 times
Contact:
Status: Offline

Re: Dead/Dying Malls in Your Area and Predictions

Post by storewanderer »

cjd wrote: February 21st, 2021, 10:33 am
Why do they start decreasing selection and inventory? I don't know. It seems to exacebate the problems they're having in the first place. Not enough sales at a location? Decrease selection and inventory, and then anyone who does still come in won't find what they're looking for, and they go somewhere else.

If they do ask where it is? Go on our website, says the associate. Then the customer goes online to another retailer.

I think these stores must really know they are just about finished, so they have given up. It's amazing to me the difference between what my local Belk store looks like now, and what it looked like back in 2016, even 2019. It's a night and day difference, and quite depressing.

To me these stores are just doing themselves in. Maybe they know they can't compete anymore with those cross shopping, maybe they know they can't compete with retailers that only do online sales, I dunno.
These are all excellent points and this has happened across retail. Retailers SKU rationalize themself into irrelevance. It has happened with the drugstore front ends especially over the years. I think this is a big part of why Wal Mart (and to a lesser degree Target- after they chopped out so much of hardlines, they stopped cutting SKUs) remains successful is they continue to have a big SKU mix.

I needed light bulb to light up the refrigerator's night light (beside/above of the water/ice nozzle) and first checked Smiths which I suspect would have once had them, but no more (but it is a grocery store so not really a place you'd expect it anyway), then went straight to the conveniently located Home Depot. I had the bulb with me. Showed it to one of the very eager to help me find something, until I actually took them up on the offer, employees and was met with an oh gee and a well we don't really have specialty bulbs here like that with zero effort to look for it or anything (...there are thousands of bulbs here?) shrug. Was told to check online. I did- right while I was standing there. Eventually I found it based on searching for the voltage/watts and showed that to the employee who said yes the $4 2 pack of light bulbs had to be special ordered and would take 2 weeks to get there but could be shipped to the store for free. Went onto Lowes site and found it there, in stock, so I went over there 20 minutes away and picked it up in that store.
Post Reply