SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

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SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by cathandler » February 16th, 2018, 8:18 pm


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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by pseudo3d » February 16th, 2018, 11:30 pm

Oof. I was right though, wasn't I? Officially it hasn't happened yet but "nearly 200 stores" sounds about right. While that's pretty heavy (between a fourth and a third of the chain), from what wnetmacman says at least that amount of the chain are not very good stores and aren't fit for much anyway. I'd be interested in where those stores are. Personal predictions say that 30 Harveys will close (about half of that name), about 6 for Fresco y Más (a third), 20 out of Alabama, 8 out of MS (already they're down to 11), 40 assorted Bi-Lo stores, and about 85 assorted Winn-Dixie stores out of Florida (a fourth of the stores there, heavily affecting former Sweetbay stores).

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by storewanderer » February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm

Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by pseudo3d » February 17th, 2018, 12:02 am

storewanderer wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm
Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.
Maybe. The 200 stores to close sound like the worst stores that nobody really would want. Of course, when they do close stores they'll probably be more open to asset sales.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by cathandler » February 17th, 2018, 3:35 am

storewanderer wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm
Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.
That was my first thought as well. Lone Star has to be eyeing the exit door. They've probably extracted as much value as they can from the operation. You have to wonder how viable even a slimmed-down SEG would be as a standalone entity.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by buckguy » February 17th, 2018, 7:12 am

"Value"? You must be joking. They've extracted as much as they can from fees without crippling the chain further. A good guess is that some of the more valuable leases will get sold along with the most obvious dogs. I wonder, though, if the company is really at a point where the most likely solution would be liquidation.
cathandler wrote:
February 17th, 2018, 3:35 am
storewanderer wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm
Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.
That was my first thought as well. Lone Star has to be eyeing the exit door. They've probably extracted as much value as they can from the operation. You have to wonder how viable even a slimmed-down SEG would be as a standalone entity.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by wnetmacman » February 17th, 2018, 7:27 am

storewanderer wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm
Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.
Chance, yes. Ability, sadly, no. Unless Albertsons can find a bank willing to lend them money, it won't happen. It's just too much right now.
pseudo3d wrote:
February 17th, 2018, 12:02 am
Maybe. The 200 stores to close sound like the worst stores that nobody really would want. Of course, when they do close stores they'll probably be more open to asset sales.
An SEG asset sale would be akin to an antique sale. I think that's part of the reason they haven't sold the chain yet; there's nothing usable for anyone there.
pseudo3d wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:30 pm
Oof. I was right though, wasn't I? Officially it hasn't happened yet but "nearly 200 stores" sounds about right. While that's pretty heavy (between a fourth and a third of the chain), from what wnetmacman says at least that amount of the chain are not very good stores and aren't fit for much anyway. I'd be interested in where those stores are. Personal predictions say that 30 Harveys will close (about half of that name), about 6 for Fresco y Más (a third), 20 out of Alabama, 8 out of MS (already they're down to 11), 40 assorted Bi-Lo stores, and about 85 assorted Winn-Dixie stores out of Florida (a fourth of the stores there, heavily affecting former Sweetbay stores).
Always nice to be remembered. I would say that with a few newer stores, most of the WD store fleet is in excess of 20 years old. Not sure of Bi-Lo, as I don't live close to one, but I don't believe numbers there are any different. I think it's a last ditch effort to jettison really dead weight (LA, MS, AL and GA) and make WD a Florida-only chain. That would make more sense at this point. And I believe they could find buyers for the remaining stores. In Louisiana for sure, the Baton Rouge Shoppers Value franchisee has been gobbling them up, and Rouses may be interested in some stores.

If SEG files for bankruptcy, expect a conversion late in the game to liquidation, and a possible selloff (of the fire sale variety) possibly to Albertsons if they can get the money to expand. I don't think any of the stores fit Kroger's mentality.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by pseudo3d » February 17th, 2018, 11:46 am

wnetmacman wrote:
February 17th, 2018, 7:27 am
storewanderer wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:32 pm
Here's Albertsons chance to expand in Florida.
Chance, yes. Ability, sadly, no. Unless Albertsons can find a bank willing to lend them money, it won't happen. It's just too much right now.
pseudo3d wrote:
February 17th, 2018, 12:02 am
Maybe. The 200 stores to close sound like the worst stores that nobody really would want. Of course, when they do close stores they'll probably be more open to asset sales.
An SEG asset sale would be akin to an antique sale. I think that's part of the reason they haven't sold the chain yet; there's nothing usable for anyone there.
pseudo3d wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:30 pm
Oof. I was right though, wasn't I? Officially it hasn't happened yet but "nearly 200 stores" sounds about right. While that's pretty heavy (between a fourth and a third of the chain), from what wnetmacman says at least that amount of the chain are not very good stores and aren't fit for much anyway. I'd be interested in where those stores are. Personal predictions say that 30 Harveys will close (about half of that name), about 6 for Fresco y Más (a third), 20 out of Alabama, 8 out of MS (already they're down to 11), 40 assorted Bi-Lo stores, and about 85 assorted Winn-Dixie stores out of Florida (a fourth of the stores there, heavily affecting former Sweetbay stores).
Always nice to be remembered. I would say that with a few newer stores, most of the WD store fleet is in excess of 20 years old. Not sure of Bi-Lo, as I don't live close to one, but I don't believe numbers there are any different. I think it's a last ditch effort to jettison really dead weight (LA, MS, AL and GA) and make WD a Florida-only chain. That would make more sense at this point. And I believe they could find buyers for the remaining stores. In Louisiana for sure, the Baton Rouge Shoppers Value franchisee has been gobbling them up, and Rouses may be interested in some stores.

If SEG files for bankruptcy, expect a conversion late in the game to liquidation, and a possible selloff (of the fire sale variety) possibly to Albertsons if they can get the money to expand. I don't think any of the stores fit Kroger's mentality.
I think this first round is going to be similar to the first round of Albertsons LLC closures, that is, the stores that weren't profitable or marginally profitable but not worth enough to keep around. And guess what? Very few, if any, are still operating as supermarkets. Nobody is going to want the 200 stores SEG is closing, not Albertsons, not Kroger, not Publix. Some may be reopened as Walmart Neighborhood Market or even Food Lion but that's not a sure thing. Most of the first 200 stores will probably be largely Harveys stores or stores that were slated to become Harveys, and history will repeat itself with Harveys being the new SaveRite.

The thing with Albertsons/Safeway and Winn-Dixie in Florida is that Albertsons knows that the stores it would really like to have are Winn-Dixie's better, nicer stores, but SEG won't sell those until the very end. If SEG is able to get their store count under 200 with a Florida-centric collection of the best W-D stores, then I can see that finally happening. As it stands, SEG will still have over 500 stores even after the round of closures. Their best and perhaps only option right now is to make that the goal (even if Albertsons isn't the ultimate buyer). Close down the worst stores, sell off the non-core stores, and reinvest in that core.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by Knight » February 17th, 2018, 4:39 pm

pseudo3d wrote:
February 16th, 2018, 11:30 pm
Oof. I was right though, wasn't I? Officially it hasn't happened yet but "nearly 200 stores" sounds about right. While that's pretty heavy (between a fourth and a third of the chain), from what wnetmacman says at least that amount of the chain are not very good stores and aren't fit for much anyway. I'd be interested in where those stores are. Personal predictions say that 30 Harveys will close (about half of that name), about 6 for Fresco y Más (a third), 20 out of Alabama, 8 out of MS (already they're down to 11), 40 assorted Bi-Lo stores, and about 85 assorted Winn-Dixie stores out of Florida (a fourth of the stores there, heavily affecting former Sweetbay stores).
Stores likely to close have expiring leases, have reduced hours of operation, have closed food (grocery, meat, produce, seafood) and pharmacy departments, and have fewer associates. I project 200 to 300 stores will close, Winn-Dixie exits Louisiana and Mississippi, and BI-LO and Harvey's exit North Carolina and Chesterfield, Darlington, Dillon, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Lancaster, Marlboro, Williamsburg, and York counties in South Carolina.

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Re: SEG to file for bankruptcy, close nearly 200 stores

Post by Knight » February 17th, 2018, 4:47 pm

pseudo3d wrote:
February 17th, 2018, 11:46 am
I think this first round is going to be similar to the first round of Albertsons LLC closures, that is, the stores that weren't profitable or marginally profitable but not worth enough to keep around. And guess what? Very few, if any, are still operating as supermarkets. Nobody is going to want the 200 stores SEG is closing, not Albertsons, not Kroger, not Publix. Some may be reopened as Walmart Neighborhood Market or even Food Lion but that's not a sure thing. Most of the first 200 stores will probably be largely Harveys stores or stores that were slated to become Harveys, and history will repeat itself with Harveys being the new SaveRite.

The thing with Albertsons/Safeway and Winn-Dixie in Florida is that Albertsons knows that the stores it would really like to have are Winn-Dixie's better, nicer stores, but SEG won't sell those until the very end. If SEG is able to get their store count under 200 with a Florida-centric collection of the best W-D stores, then I can see that finally happening. As it stands, SEG will still have over 500 stores even after the round of closures. Their best and perhaps only option right now is to make that the goal (even if Albertsons isn't the ultimate buyer). Close down the worst stores, sell off the non-core stores, and reinvest in that core.
I could see Publix making a push for a quantity of BI-LO store locations as it further expands in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. That quantity will be selective.

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