I agree with your ideas assuming the merger doesn't go through.storewanderer wrote: ↑November 6th, 2022, 7:08 pm What a mess.
The more I think about this merger the less I like it. I think Cerberus needs to sell *good, non-overlapping* divisions to Kroger (basically NorCal and Jewel...) and do whatever with the leftovers. IPO Pacific Northwest into its own company if it is so great and so profitable and package it up as an attractive package for a new market entrant. Maybe roll Intermountain into that Pacific Northwest IPO. Find a foreign buyer out of Mexico for SoCal and Southwest.
Texas, Mid Atlantic, Shaws, Acme, sorry- slice and dice. Denver- fire sale.
I am sure in the slice and dice and fire sale Kroger will pick up some additional non-overlapping stores. After analysis of VibeGuy and some further research I've done I do think Pacific Northwest overlap is going to be the straw that "breaks" this merger from happening. Something tells me if the above is the route that is taken, many parties involved will look back at how the slice and dice and grind up goes, and think "it would have been easier if Kroger had merged the whole company in." Also in the above example Safeway banner is gone from NorCal which would be a problem. It will need to remain in Pacific Northwest to maintain the value of that store group for the later IPO.
For the NW/Intermountain ACI stores, that new market entrant would be Loblaws. Given if Safeway NorCal were to go into Kroger, those NW/Intermountain Safeway stores would be renamed to the Albertsons nameplate.
SoCal/Southwest: Hypothetically, the buyer from Mexico would probably be Soriana (that or the owner of Sears Mexico). I'd expect everything in that block to be converted over to the Vons nameplate. Otherwise, Loblaws could get those stores too.
Texas: United could also be sold to Kroger. Albertsons Market would be merged back into the Southwest Division.
As for the D/FW stores, those could go to Brookshire's. I expect Randalls to be parted out in both Austin and Houston.
Safeway East: I'd think Publix would buy those. UNFI looks to be expanding again, so some of those Safeways could go into Shoppers Food.
Shaw's/Star Market: Those stores would be parted out to Big Y, ShopRite, and Price Chopper, the latter having stores in the far out Boston suburbs. Market Basket is out of the question as they prefer to build their own stores.
Acme: I expect ShopRite operators to buy those stores. Price Chopper or Big Y could buy the Acme stores in the NYC suburbs.
Denver: I expect the Safeway stores in the Rockies (along with Albertsons/Safeway in WY/SD) to be merged into Intermountain. Safeway stores along the Front Range, from Fort Collins to Pueblo, should be sold to AWG, along with their Denver warehouse. Those would take the Price Chopper name. The ones in eastern CO/western NE should be sold to Hy-Vee for their Dollar Fresh format.