La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by veteran+ »

ClownLoach wrote: February 3rd, 2023, 11:23 pm
Bluelightspecial wrote: January 31st, 2023, 5:23 pm If...and that's a big if, this merger goes through, to think that Kroger would keep one of their bannered stores instead of a better located Albertsons/Safeway store would be a bad business decision. There is no way that a combined Kroger/Albertsons would let La Jolla become part of Spinco. They would keep it and get rid of their Fresh Fare in La Jolla if they had to. The locations aren't even comparable. They might get rid of the Pavilions banner, but the location of that store is worth more than 4 Ralphs stores.
They'll never let go of that weird Ralphs in La Jolla. My understanding is it is 2nd to the Westwood store in overall volume in the Ralphs chain. Yes the location and parking sucks but they keep packing them in. The Pavilions is in a completely different neighborhood and area on the complete opposite side of town and serves a completely different clientele.

All of these skeptical divestiture proposals I keep reading basically cancel out the merger entirely. If we keep deciding that there are two stores in one area and one has to divest then there isn't a merger benefit. Kroger is going to have to get divestitures below 10% of the Albertsons Cos store count to make this worthwhile.

The only place that I expect to see any real pushback is where no other competitors exist. That Ralphs has a Whole Foods across the street and shares a wall with Trader Joe's. Personally I think that brings more business. If there is a Walmart, Target, Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Aldi, Grocery Outlet, etc. they will have the right to say they are not a monopoly in the area. Their argument is that all those are competitors which is why they're merging in the first place. Give me a city where there is literally nothing but a Ralphs and say a Albertsons for many miles then let's talk about divests. Our armchair engineering keeps divesting 40% to 60% of the stores being acquired.
That Westwood Ralphs is a Fresh Fare and I love it. Even the attitude of the store is awesome. But access to that store from West Hollywood is just too far and too much traffic with many traffic signal stops and or narrow winding roads.

THAT is the kind of Fresh Fare that should be in West Hollywood and Beverly Hills 🤷
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by veteran+ »

I used to shop at the La Jolla store for munchies on my way to Blacks Beach.

HUGE store and always busy. Last time I was there the left side of the store was being reconfigured.

I don't remember if it was a Fresh Fare :?:
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by ClownLoach »

veteran+ wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:01 am I used to shop at the La Jolla store for munchies on my way to Blacks Beach.

HUGE store and always busy. Last time I was there the left side of the store was being reconfigured.

I don't remember if it was a Fresh Fare :?:
It's always having work done. Every time previous that there was a new Fresh Fare decor package they've added it. Now that there are two dueling designs (the Farmhouse barn wood decor vs the Whole Foods knockoff modern decor) the last time I was there they were finishing up the Whole Foods knockoff install. Between self check and regular registers I believe it has about 30 registers and I've been there when literally every one was in use at like 10:30Pm on a Saturday night.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by storewanderer »

ClownLoach wrote: February 4th, 2023, 2:26 pm
veteran+ wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:01 am I used to shop at the La Jolla store for munchies on my way to Blacks Beach.

HUGE store and always busy. Last time I was there the left side of the store was being reconfigured.

I don't remember if it was a Fresh Fare :?:
It's always having work done. Every time previous that there was a new Fresh Fare decor package they've added it. Now that there are two dueling designs (the Farmhouse barn wood decor vs the Whole Foods knockoff modern decor) the last time I was there they were finishing up the Whole Foods knockoff install. Between self check and regular registers I believe it has about 30 registers and I've been there when literally every one was in use at like 10:30Pm on a Saturday night.
I think it has had the Fresh Fare branding on it for at least the past 15 years. In the early 00's it did not have the Fresh Fare branding. Feels like one of the few bright spots for Ralphs around San Diego over the years. I know there are some other good stores too but far more closures than there should have been.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by HCal »

ClownLoach wrote: February 3rd, 2023, 11:23 pm
All of these skeptical divestiture proposals I keep reading basically cancel out the merger entirely. If we keep deciding that there are two stores in one area and one has to divest then there isn't a merger benefit. Kroger is going to have to get divestitures below 10% of the Albertsons Cos store count to make this worthwhile.

The only place that I expect to see any real pushback is where no other competitors exist. That Ralphs has a Whole Foods across the street and shares a wall with Trader Joe's. Personally I think that brings more business. If there is a Walmart, Target, Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Aldi, Grocery Outlet, etc. they will have the right to say they are not a monopoly in the area. Their argument is that all those are competitors which is why they're merging in the first place. Give me a city where there is literally nothing but a Ralphs and say a Albertsons for many miles then let's talk about divests. Our armchair engineering keeps divesting 40% to 60% of the stores being acquired.
The mere existence of other competitors isn't sufficient. The criteria is "substantially lessens competition". Arguably, going from 5 competitors to 4 competitors will lessen competition substantially.

Kroger has agreed to divest up to 650 stores if needed, which is about 30% of the stores being acquired. Obviously, they are going to lowball the number at first, so 40% is quite reasonable. I don't think they would back out unless they have to divest, let's say 1,000 or more stores.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by veteran+ »

ClownLoach wrote: February 4th, 2023, 2:26 pm
veteran+ wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:01 am I used to shop at the La Jolla store for munchies on my way to Blacks Beach.

HUGE store and always busy. Last time I was there the left side of the store was being reconfigured.

I don't remember if it was a Fresh Fare :?:
It's always having work done. Every time previous that there was a new Fresh Fare decor package they've added it. Now that there are two dueling designs (the Farmhouse barn wood decor vs the Whole Foods knockoff modern decor) the last time I was there they were finishing up the Whole Foods knockoff install. Between self check and regular registers I believe it has about 30 registers and I've been there when literally every one was in use at like 10:30Pm on a Saturday night.
Is there the Fresh Fare moniker on the front of the building?


Oooooops, I just noticed that storewanderer answered my question :-)
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by veteran+ »

storewanderer wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:18 pm
ClownLoach wrote: February 4th, 2023, 2:26 pm
veteran+ wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:01 am I used to shop at the La Jolla store for munchies on my way to Blacks Beach.

HUGE store and always busy. Last time I was there the left side of the store was being reconfigured.

I don't remember if it was a Fresh Fare :?:
It's always having work done. Every time previous that there was a new Fresh Fare decor package they've added it. Now that there are two dueling designs (the Farmhouse barn wood decor vs the Whole Foods knockoff modern decor) the last time I was there they were finishing up the Whole Foods knockoff install. Between self check and regular registers I believe it has about 30 registers and I've been there when literally every one was in use at like 10:30Pm on a Saturday night.
I think it has had the Fresh Fare branding on it for at least the past 15 years. In the early 00's it did not have the Fresh Fare branding. Feels like one of the few bright spots for Ralphs around San Diego over the years. I know there are some other good stores too but far more closures than there should have been.
Yep........................Hillcrest is a very good store and high volume. Mission Valley is also excellent.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by rwsandiego »

veteran+ wrote: February 5th, 2023, 8:24 am
storewanderer wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:18 pm
ClownLoach wrote: February 4th, 2023, 2:26 pm

It's always having work done. Every time previous that there was a new Fresh Fare decor package they've added it. Now that there are two dueling designs (the Farmhouse barn wood decor vs the Whole Foods knockoff modern decor) the last time I was there they were finishing up the Whole Foods knockoff install. Between self check and regular registers I believe it has about 30 registers and I've been there when literally every one was in use at like 10:30Pm on a Saturday night.
I think it has had the Fresh Fare branding on it for at least the past 15 years. In the early 00's it did not have the Fresh Fare branding. Feels like one of the few bright spots for Ralphs around San Diego over the years. I know there are some other good stores too but far more closures than there should have been.
Yep........................Hillcrest is a very good store and high volume. Mission Valley is also excellent.
Hillcrest is a real success story. When I first moved to San Diego in 2000 it was not a very nice store. Mission Valley has always been a great store and I am glad it finally became a Fresh Fare.

The Mission Hills VONS could easily be a Pavilions. Between Mission Hills, Banker's Hill and Hillcrest the neighborhoods could absolutely support it.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by ClownLoach »

HCal wrote: February 5th, 2023, 3:27 am
ClownLoach wrote: February 3rd, 2023, 11:23 pm
All of these skeptical divestiture proposals I keep reading basically cancel out the merger entirely. If we keep deciding that there are two stores in one area and one has to divest then there isn't a merger benefit. Kroger is going to have to get divestitures below 10% of the Albertsons Cos store count to make this worthwhile.

The only place that I expect to see any real pushback is where no other competitors exist. That Ralphs has a Whole Foods across the street and shares a wall with Trader Joe's. Personally I think that brings more business. If there is a Walmart, Target, Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Aldi, Grocery Outlet, etc. they will have the right to say they are not a monopoly in the area. Their argument is that all those are competitors which is why they're merging in the first place. Give me a city where there is literally nothing but a Ralphs and say a Albertsons for many miles then let's talk about divests. Our armchair engineering keeps divesting 40% to 60% of the stores being acquired.
The mere existence of other competitors isn't sufficient. The criteria is "substantially lessens competition". Arguably, going from 5 competitors to 4 competitors will lessen competition substantially.

Kroger has agreed to divest up to 650 stores if needed, which is about 30% of the stores being acquired. Obviously, they are going to lowball the number at first, so 40% is quite reasonable. I don't think they would back out unless they have to divest, let's say 1,000 or more stores.
Here's the problem with that store count idea: the areas with the highest overlaps also are the highest volumes. They are not going to want to let a single store in the top two quartiles of run rate go without a fight. If they divested 30% of the Albertsons Co's stores but those were mostly in SoCal, Oregon and Washington that could easily represent more than 50% of the overall revenue being divested. There would be absolutely zero reason to continue with the transaction at that point as they've given up too many stores. And I firmly believe that the SpinCo strategy is going to be rejected especially if they intend to dump them all in that basket without competitive bidding by store, but then the Haggen debacle soured everyone on the idea of one entity getting too many locations.

Again in many of these areas the balance of coverage is really quite wacky, like the aforementioned Orange County and Riverside County markets where the Albertsons nameplate is #1 or #2 overall and Ralphs may be a distant 4th, yet in the next county over it is a complete reverse.

They may be saying publicly that they'd let 600+ stores go, but they also are hiring paid shills to say they are going out of business without this merger due to the crushing competition of Amazon. So their words are not credible. No reason to buy if any more than a hundred West Coast stores go. They're better off letting Albertsons bleed out from the self inflicted wound of the $4B dividend payment then going in and piecing out the chain as its broken up.
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Re: La Jolla Vons to be converted to Pavilions

Post by Bluelightspecial »

rwsandiego wrote: February 5th, 2023, 9:34 am
veteran+ wrote: February 5th, 2023, 8:24 am
storewanderer wrote: February 4th, 2023, 8:18 pm

I think it has had the Fresh Fare branding on it for at least the past 15 years. In the early 00's it did not have the Fresh Fare branding. Feels like one of the few bright spots for Ralphs around San Diego over the years. I know there are some other good stores too but far more closures than there should have been.
Yep........................Hillcrest is a very good store and high volume. Mission Valley is also excellent.
Hillcrest is a real success story. When I first moved to San Diego in 2000 it was not a very nice store. Mission Valley has always been a great store and I am glad it finally became a Fresh Fare.

The Mission Hills VONS could easily be a Pavilions. Between Mission Hills, Banker's Hill and Hillcrest the neighborhoods could absolutely support it.
At one point before Safeway "bought" Vons, there were plans to expand Pavilions into San Diego. One of the stores was the Hillcrest store... along with La Jolla (now converted), Solano Beach, and a Pacific Beach store they eventually sold across the street from the existing Vons, and I think Del Mar. For a few years there were two Vons right across the street from each other in Pacific Beach. This still exists in South Pasadena where there is a Vons across the street from a Pavilions. If the FTC allowed these instances way back then, it will be interesting to see what exceptions they allow if this merger proceeds.
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