The problem I see is the "mess" of overlaps that Kroger-Albertsons causes out west... Ahold-Albertsons causes a similar mess of overlaps and divests back east. I think there are a lot more qualified buyers back east to take divested stores over though, so that changes the dynamic of that.marketreportblog wrote: ↑March 4th, 2024, 5:20 pmReady for a crazy conspiracy theory?ClownLoach wrote: ↑March 4th, 2024, 3:55 pm I wonder if we see this deal called off by the end of the week...
Kroger-Albertsons merger is called off. We go back to Plan A and one of them acquires or merges with Ahold Delhaize's US division.
Now hear me out.
It's obvious that Stop & Shop is struggling, and while it looks like the other banners seem to be doing really well, I see signs that the company overall is struggling. We have the closure of home-delivery fulfillment warehouses in NJ and throughout Giant-MD, some as new as just three months old. They've sold Fresh Direct, and most recently, they've sold two meat-processing plants to Cargill. Is that what a company that has long-term intentions of doing business here in the US would do? It feels suspiciously like Ahold Delhaize is winding down here in the US.
Okay, I don't really believe that there will be some shocking twist with Kroger-Ahold Delhaize or Albertsons-Ahold Delhaize becoming the next big thing. But weirder things have happened.
More seriously, yes, I suspect that Kroger and Albertsons are all bark and no bite on their promise to litigate the merger to its end. I think it's likely they give up in the near future, but it's also very possible they don't -- and if they continue to fight the FTC, there's a solid chance they actually win.
And it will not be so cut and dry back east what to do. Divest Safeway East and divest Acme/Kings etc. 100%? Okay- maybe that will alleviate some issues. But that also leaves some Stop N Shops... and what to do about Shaw's or Hannaford (or Stop N Shop in some cases)?
Also I just cannot see Food Lion falling under Albertsons. Or can I? Could they take those and expand the offer, add staffing, add fresh items, substantially increase prices (to pay for all the new frills), and make those stores more alive? Maybe they could... But I'm not sure how interested those markets are in additional fresh items and substantially increased prices.
I think Kroger can successfully litigate and win against FTC but I think they should not go forward on that path or with the merger at all for various reasons.