🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by wnetmacman »

storewanderer wrote: March 11th, 2024, 7:26 pm Wasn't LA Pantry format? That's radically different from what they build today.
Lake Charles was indeed a Pantry store, opened in a former Delchamps that failed before the majority of the chain, also known as Strike 1. The store was next to a successful D1 Walmart that moved up the road soon after, strike 2. Nelson Road in front of the store was perpetually under construction, strike 3. It never stood a chance against 3 Krogers, 2 Albertsons, 2 Walmarts and a bunch of Market Basket (TX) stores, and was never successful. Lake Charles is finicky; the two Albertsons are still open as are the 2 Walmarts, but there is only one Kroger in Lake Charles proper now where there were once 3. Market Basket now occupies the facility that HEB did.

I believe if HEB came to town with the current full service format, they could take the two Albertsons at the very least.
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by pseudo3d »

HCal wrote: March 11th, 2024, 5:06 pm
wnetmacman wrote: March 11th, 2024, 1:17 pm The only correlation that HEB does not have to Publix is that they have not been able to replicate the formula outside their home state. I do not expect that to continue much longer, as I think they are itching to expand somewhere again outside Texas and northern Mexico.
The more I think about it, the more I feel like the main cause of HEB's success is state pride, which Texas takes to the extreme compared to any other state. Remove all the references to Texas from the walls and aisles and on the private label products, and HEB would just be any other run-of-the-mill supermarket.
At this rate...they're not really close to Albertsons or Kroger. Both formats can run some shabby looking stores but H-E-B almost takes pride in their stores resembling giant warehouses. The deli program has nothing of what Safeway or Albertsons offers, but those departments tend to have major staffing issues anyway so maybe it's for the better.

Their whole model of profitability is completely different than Kroger or Albertsons, and it's very obvious why they didn't take any divestments the first time around.
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by storewanderer »

pseudo3d wrote: March 11th, 2024, 8:22 pm
HCal wrote: March 11th, 2024, 5:06 pm
wnetmacman wrote: March 11th, 2024, 1:17 pm The only correlation that HEB does not have to Publix is that they have not been able to replicate the formula outside their home state. I do not expect that to continue much longer, as I think they are itching to expand somewhere again outside Texas and northern Mexico.
The more I think about it, the more I feel like the main cause of HEB's success is state pride, which Texas takes to the extreme compared to any other state. Remove all the references to Texas from the walls and aisles and on the private label products, and HEB would just be any other run-of-the-mill supermarket.
At this rate...they're not really close to Albertsons or Kroger. Both formats can run some shabby looking stores but H-E-B almost takes pride in their stores resembling giant warehouses. The deli program has nothing of what Safeway or Albertsons offers, but those departments tend to have major staffing issues anyway so maybe it's for the better.

Their whole model of profitability is completely different than Kroger or Albertsons, and it's very obvious why they didn't take any divestments the first time around.
I'd like to see some volume figures on HEB deli vs. a Safeway/Albertsons deli, and profitability. My suspicion is the HEB program does significantly more volume and also does significantly higher profit due to a disciplined mix of items and less "service" and way less food waste/spoilage.

Also don't forget HEB runs the full service tortilla departments in many stores, that takes labor... I don't think I've seen that department ever in an Albertsons (except maybe some of the old Max Foods in SoCal) or Safeway. So maybe you could say they chose to put labor toward that instead of hot food.
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by retailfanmitchell019 »

District of Oregon judge to hear FTC challenge to Kroger/Albertsons in August:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/u ... 024-03-11/
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by pseudo3d »

retailfanmitchell019 wrote: March 12th, 2024, 8:13 am District of Oregon judge to hear FTC challenge to Kroger/Albertsons in August:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/u ... 024-03-11/
There was another op-ed supporting the merger in Orange County...but I'm surprised that Kroger wants to drag this out so much, especially as how their "competition" they fear continue to eat their lunch. (Although not really. Notice how the threat of Amazon Fresh has quietly been dropped from their propaganda).
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by arizonaguy »

retailfanmitchell019 wrote: March 12th, 2024, 8:13 am District of Oregon judge to hear FTC challenge to Kroger/Albertsons in August:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/u ... 024-03-11/
This can't be good for the prospects of the merger. August will be in the middle of election season and I can't see the approval of this merger being a good political move for anyone. I know courts are "apolitical" but federal judges are appointed by the President and approved by Congress so there is a political element to this.

I very much hope that this merger is stopped. I really haven't been all that impressed with Kroger (other than a few years in the mid 2010s where they really seemed to have their act together while Albertsons and especially Safeway (pre-merger) were floundering).
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by storewanderer »

arizonaguy wrote: March 12th, 2024, 6:32 pm
retailfanmitchell019 wrote: March 12th, 2024, 8:13 am District of Oregon judge to hear FTC challenge to Kroger/Albertsons in August:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/u ... 024-03-11/
This can't be good for the prospects of the merger. August will be in the middle of election season and I can't see the approval of this merger being a good political move for anyone. I know courts are "apolitical" but federal judges are appointed by the President and approved by Congress so there is a political element to this.

I very much hope that this merger is stopped. I really haven't been all that impressed with Kroger (other than a few years in the mid 2010s where they really seemed to have their act together while Albertsons and especially Safeway (pre-merger) were floundering).
Meanwhile some Democrat Senator from OH is talking up the merger as if it is a great thing and will help strengthen the unions. Well, I guess it is a great thing for a company from OH to get even bigger.

So it is probably a good thing this merger is getting less and less political with bipartisan opposition and also bipartisan groups supporting it. Maybe this will enable some actual quality dialogue in the hearings, and not turn it into the political "you're with us or you're against us" side taking that so much else has evolved into politically.

What I think is telling is in the most recent Kroger Earnings Conference Call either the CEO or acting CFO said something to the effect of from a capex perspective they are planning 2024 as if they are a stand alone company (no merger). So they are doing a block of remodels and also announced 30 new stores. That is great.

Now- Albertsons- what are they doing? They just announced a new Safeway in Oakley, CA this past week. And they still seem to be doing some remodels plus they have other new stores in their pipeline they are working on like that OK thing. It will be interesting to see what they say if they get asked about this in an earnings call.

Would the best play for Albertsons right now to be to walk from this merger and make a play to buy certain Rite Aid stores out of bankruptcy? That would also preserve union employment in some of those drugstores...
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by pseudo3d »

https://www.supermarketnews.com/laws-re ... ponses-ftc

Albertsons and Kroger have slapped back at the FTC.

Some notes:

"The retailers assert that C&S would be well-positioned to operate the stores and that their divestiture plan bears no resemblance to previous failed divestitures that Safeway and Albertsons made to Haggen and Lawrence Bros." I'm not sure if someone made a typo but Albertsons bought stores FROM Lawrence Bros. (an IGA operator that sold about half of its stores to United Supermarkets in 2016). However, C&S doesn't have a track record of operating stores successfully with any longevity and never this much at once.
"'C&S is not a mom-and-pop operation or a risky private equity venture,' Kroger said in its filing. 'It is a well-capitalized company with deep industry experience.'"

It's taking on a lot of debt to buy the stores (and again, why they're not buying the additional 200 stores is a mystery...if that was at all an option to success I'm sure Kroger would jump on it. But C&S doesn't have experience actually OPERATING stores. They kept the lights on at Bruno's and Grand Union until they got sold to other operators, and they seemed to do the same with the new Grand Union stores that Tops/Price Chopper divested.
"It cited competition from other grocery retailers, including Walmart, Target, Costco, Amazon/Whole Foods, other specialty grocers such as Trader Joe's and Sprouts, and dollar stores."
See this is what someone was stating, if you decide these are competition you're essentially arguing that the supermarket is functionally obsolete and its the only way to survive. That was the way Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Radio got away with it, and part of the agreement was changes in pricing (and a freeze in pricing for three years--no way can Albertsons/Kroger freeze prices for three years!)

"Albertsons cited Costco in particular as one of the company's 'most fervent competitors.'" Is it really? I guess when you knock off Kroger and Walmart, it is...but that still seems like a stretch.

"'Even crediting the Commission’s improper market definition, the number of competitors will not change,' Kroger said."
Until C&S starts closing stores which they all but outright stated they would do. And every merger whittles away the number of competitors. It doesn't matter when there are three or four other companies to pick up the pieces, it matters when you have to invent one because now, in every market there is one or zero other major competitors. When it came to John Van de Kamp and his crusade against American Stores, the merger of Lucky and Alpha Beta still left a number of other chains in SoCal, including Ralphs, Boys Markets, Hughes, Albertsons, and Vons.
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by ClownLoach »

pseudo3d wrote: March 14th, 2024, 3:13 pm https://www.supermarketnews.com/laws-re ... ponses-ftc

Albertsons and Kroger have slapped back at the FTC.

Some notes:

"The retailers assert that C&S would be well-positioned to operate the stores and that their divestiture plan bears no resemblance to previous failed divestitures that Safeway and Albertsons made to Haggen and Lawrence Bros." I'm not sure if someone made a typo but Albertsons bought stores FROM Lawrence Bros. (an IGA operator that sold about half of its stores to United Supermarkets in 2016). However, C&S doesn't have a track record of operating stores successfully with any longevity and never this much at once.
"'C&S is not a mom-and-pop operation or a risky private equity venture,' Kroger said in its filing. 'It is a well-capitalized company with deep industry experience.'"

It's taking on a lot of debt to buy the stores (and again, why they're not buying the additional 200 stores is a mystery...if that was at all an option to success I'm sure Kroger would jump on it. But C&S doesn't have experience actually OPERATING stores. They kept the lights on at Bruno's and Grand Union until they got sold to other operators, and they seemed to do the same with the new Grand Union stores that Tops/Price Chopper divested.
"It cited competition from other grocery retailers, including Walmart, Target, Costco, Amazon/Whole Foods, other specialty grocers such as Trader Joe's and Sprouts, and dollar stores."
See this is what someone was stating, if you decide these are competition you're essentially arguing that the supermarket is functionally obsolete and its the only way to survive. That was the way Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Radio got away with it, and part of the agreement was changes in pricing (and a freeze in pricing for three years--no way can Albertsons/Kroger freeze prices for three years!)

"Albertsons cited Costco in particular as one of the company's 'most fervent competitors.'" Is it really? I guess when you knock off Kroger and Walmart, it is...but that still seems like a stretch.

"'Even crediting the Commission’s improper market definition, the number of competitors will not change,' Kroger said."
Until C&S starts closing stores which they all but outright stated they would do. And every merger whittles away the number of competitors. It doesn't matter when there are three or four other companies to pick up the pieces, it matters when you have to invent one because now, in every market there is one or zero other major competitors. When it came to John Van de Kamp and his crusade against American Stores, the merger of Lucky and Alpha Beta still left a number of other chains in SoCal, including Ralphs, Boys Markets, Hughes, Albertsons, and Vons.
This PR is not a countersuit, which is needed to effectively get an injunction against the injunction and force a rapid trial.

This, along with the earnings announcement that Kroger will expect the entire fiscal year at least to be a standalone company, tells me that they're content to just let the process slowly wind through the court system at a leisurely pace where the trial will be in front of an anti-business Oregon judge.

This merger is not going to happen. It is a shotgun marriage that was instigated or arranged by Apollo once they bought in. They are assuredly going to pursue other avenues, most obvious being an Apollo buyout.
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Re: 🛒 Kroger-Albertsons Merger: National Impact

Post by storewanderer »

I forgot completely about Lawrence Brothers. They received divests in the Albertsons LLC/United purchase. And some of those did indeed fail.
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