Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by Knight »

pseudo3d wrote:It's already July and now Winn-Dixie is only doing its second "redefined" store. At this point, the 50 remodels will be done by the year 2041. I don't see Winn-Dixie/BI-LO really going anywhere anytime soon. The deterioration and bankruptcy of Winn-Dixie in 2005 still seems to haunt them, and I can't see SEG pushing around an outdated store fleet with so-so operations and disparate directions for the long haul. At some point Lone Star Funds is going to have to fish or cut bait, so to speak.
Lone Star Funds is operating a chain, Southeastern Grocers, operating fewer and fewer stores under four banners: Bi-Lo, Harvey's Supermarket, Winn-Dixie, and Fresco y Más. As more stores closed and Southeastern Grocers' value declines, there should be a point where Lone Star Funds needs to cut its losses. Are there still takers for Southeastern Grocers?
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by Knight »

pseudo3d wrote: Not that it's too late for Winn-Dixie/BI-LO...one great way to save the company is a following exchange that would really help out the company and operations is for LSF to buy the southern Food Lion stores from Ahold Delhaize, establish it as its own company, dissolve SEG by selling non-core assets that haven't been receiving updates recently (like Winn-Dixie in Louisiana), move SEG's remaining stores into Food Lion, convert the smaller BI-LO stores to that format (which would improve them operationally), then set out to make Winn-Dixie the "Stater Bros. of the East", converting larger BI-LO stores if necessary.

That would be fantastic, but a far more likely scenario is LSF deciding SEG is worth more in parts than a whole. :|
Food Lion stores do not have much value and will require a lot of investment to get in the right direction. Acquiring Harvey's Supermarkets, Reid's, and Sweetbay from Delhaize was enough for Southeastern Grocers.

Divesting non-core stores is something I can see happening. Bi-Lo stores in Tennessee and northern Georgia were divested. The same could happen or is in the process of happening for Bi-Lo and Harvey's Supermarket stores in North Carolina, northeastern South Carolina and southeastern Georgia and Winn-Dixie stores in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by Knight »

wnetmacman wrote:I agree with the last part more. The only problem is finding someone who would buy just a part here and there. Also, WD isn't ignoring ALL of Louisiana, just the stores West of the Mississippi River. 9 remaining; only one remodeled in the last 18 years save for an outside paint job. Breaux Bridge got the Covington-style decor package. Looks better in Covington, but it brought BB into the 21st century.

I could see Rouses buying more Louisiana stores, one by one. There are several stores in the coverage gap between Morgan City and Lafayette, including the outlying areas, that I could see them taking and remodeling. Some could also go to the group operating Shopper's Value Foods in Lafayette and Baton Rouge, like the Lafayette Ambassador store did. (for the record, they did clean and update that store nicely, including the parking lot that caused its closure.)

Southeastern Grocers needs to make up their mind what they want to do before they aren't here to do it any longer. They are dragging their feet too much on this.
I do not project Winn-Dixie to be in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana within five years. Rouse's will continue to increase store count in its footprint. Publix, after opening its McCalla, Alabama, distribution center in 2017, should be ready to expand into Mississippi, Louisiana, and Memphis, Tennessee.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by pseudo3d »

Knight wrote:
wnetmacman wrote:I agree with the last part more. The only problem is finding someone who would buy just a part here and there. Also, WD isn't ignoring ALL of Louisiana, just the stores West of the Mississippi River. 9 remaining; only one remodeled in the last 18 years save for an outside paint job. Breaux Bridge got the Covington-style decor package. Looks better in Covington, but it brought BB into the 21st century.

I could see Rouses buying more Louisiana stores, one by one. There are several stores in the coverage gap between Morgan City and Lafayette, including the outlying areas, that I could see them taking and remodeling. Some could also go to the group operating Shopper's Value Foods in Lafayette and Baton Rouge, like the Lafayette Ambassador store did. (for the record, they did clean and update that store nicely, including the parking lot that caused its closure.)

Southeastern Grocers needs to make up their mind what they want to do before they aren't here to do it any longer. They are dragging their feet too much on this.
I do not project Winn-Dixie to be in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana within five years. Rouse's will continue to increase store count in its footprint. Publix, after opening its McCalla, Alabama, distribution center in 2017, should be ready to expand into Mississippi, Louisiana, and Memphis, Tennessee.
I always thought that the way Publix was expanding out of Florida they should be in Mississippi soon and Louisiana by probably 2018, but instead Publix ignored it and crawled up the East Coast instead, now almost knocking at the doors of Washington DC. It's like the situation at Mississippi is bad enough for Publix to ignore it.

If Winn-Dixie would already be pulling out of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, then we have to assume that they've disposed the worst of their stores (that would probably constitute at least a third of their Florida stores, and probably ALL of the Harveys stores), and that would be half of their stores. It may be that SEG has called its quits entirely with Winn-Dixie and it could be coasting on that name as an independent supplied by C&S (and only in Florida), its largest and best stores in Florida now occupied by Safeway (should those stores be a success) or Publix (if not).
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by storewanderer »

Publix will significantly hurt Safeway with how it operates its stores. I also think Kroger Mid Atlantic will be vulnerable in Richmond unless that division is operated a heck of a lot better in Richmond than it was in Raleigh. This is the time to expand for Publix. Richmond creates a great bridge to Washington DC for them and those Ahold stores became available...

Safeway in Florida is a pipe dream. Supplying Florida from the Eastern Division DC is too far away. They are having to price those stores lower than the DC Stores yet have those super high transport costs. Publix when they expand into a market gets distribution at least just a day away...
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by pseudo3d »

storewanderer wrote:Publix will significantly hurt Safeway with how it operates its stores. I also think Kroger Mid Atlantic will be vulnerable in Richmond unless that division is operated a heck of a lot better in Richmond than it was in Raleigh. This is the time to expand for Publix. Richmond creates a great bridge to Washington DC for them and those Ahold stores became available...

Safeway in Florida is a pipe dream. Supplying Florida from the Eastern Division DC is too far away. They are having to price those stores lower than the DC Stores yet have those super high transport costs. Publix when they expand into a market gets distribution at least just a day away...
Safeway Florida isn't a "pipe dream" yet, although it's extremely risky (and still not an overly bright move)...I think the idea is that they'll probably basically be subsidized by the Eastern stores, which is going to be harder due to competition there. If they don't find a 3rd party distributor within a year or another viable plan, they'll be finished. But with Winn-Dixie looking like its going down the tubes (again), that may prove advantageous to a Florida expansion. We shall see.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by lake »

pseudo3d wrote:
storewanderer wrote:Publix will significantly hurt Safeway with how it operates its stores. I also think Kroger Mid Atlantic will be vulnerable in Richmond unless that division is operated a heck of a lot better in Richmond than it was in Raleigh. This is the time to expand for Publix. Richmond creates a great bridge to Washington DC for them and those Ahold stores became available...

Safeway in Florida is a pipe dream. Supplying Florida from the Eastern Division DC is too far away. They are having to price those stores lower than the DC Stores yet have those super high transport costs. Publix when they expand into a market gets distribution at least just a day away...
Safeway Florida isn't a "pipe dream" yet, although it's extremely risky (and still not an overly bright move)...I think the idea is that they'll probably basically be subsidized by the Eastern stores, which is going to be harder due to competition there. If they don't find a 3rd party distributor within a year or another viable plan, they'll be finished. But with Winn-Dixie looking like its going down the tubes (again), that may prove advantageous to a Florida expansion. We shall see.
The thing is who has succeeded against Publix? Even stores that are generally able to take some off the edges of conventional grocers (Whole Foods, Walmart, etc) have had great troubles in Florida. Publix is the grocery store in Florida and that is not changing unless their operations significantly decline. Although it is possible for Safeway to find a few small niches and fill them, dominating large parts of Florida is going to be impossible no matter how much money they dump into it. Generally, I believe Safeway is aware of this and I honestly believe the notion that they are using these stores to test new ideas before shipping them elsewhere. They have stores that despite poor Albertsons operations stayed high volume and are likely profitable, yet if they mess them up there's really no harm done. Acquiring WinnDixie seems like a trap Safeway would not be willing to fall into. Florida is an impossible case to crack, and acquiring hundreds of low volume, rundown, old stores in bad locations is not the way to do it.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by Knight »

pseudo3d wrote: I always thought that the way Publix was expanding out of Florida they should be in Mississippi soon and Louisiana by probably 2018, but instead Publix ignored it and crawled up the East Coast instead, now almost knocking at the doors of Washington DC. It's like the situation at Mississippi is bad enough for Publix to ignore it.
Publix in Missisippi by 2018 is doable, while entering Louisiana is still years away. It is not ignoring those states. Expanding into Virginia has the quickest opportunities to increase store count.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by Knight »

storewanderer wrote:Publix will significantly hurt Safeway with how it operates its stores. I also think Kroger Mid Atlantic will be vulnerable in Richmond unless that division is operated a heck of a lot better in Richmond than it was in Raleigh. This is the time to expand for Publix. Richmond creates a great bridge to Washington DC for them and those Ahold stores became available...

Safeway in Florida is a pipe dream. Supplying Florida from the Eastern Division DC is too far away. They are having to price those stores lower than the DC Stores yet have those super high transport costs. Publix when they expand into a market gets distribution at least just a day away...
Kroger's Mid-Atlantic Division will need to increase store count and partner with Harris Teeter in which banner participates in specific Virginia markets. As I see it, Publix can quickly open many stores in Virginia to the point another division would be necessary.

The supermarket bubble in Virginia will burst with fallout from Ahold Delhaize and Publix and Wegman's growth.

Although Safeway stores in Florida area nice, three stores in the state are not worth having interest in the state.
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Re: Winn-Dixie Reveals Next generation Store

Post by wnetmacman »

lake wrote:The thing is who has succeeded against Publix? Even stores that are generally able to take some off the edges of conventional grocers (Whole Foods, Walmart, etc) have had great troubles in Florida. Publix is the grocery store in Florida and that is not changing unless their operations significantly decline. Although it is possible for Safeway to find a few small niches and fill them, dominating large parts of Florida is going to be impossible no matter how much money they dump into it. Generally, I believe Safeway is aware of this and I honestly believe the notion that they are using these stores to test new ideas before shipping them elsewhere. They have stores that despite poor Albertsons operations stayed high volume and are likely profitable, yet if they mess them up there's really no harm done. Acquiring WinnDixie seems like a trap Safeway would not be willing to fall into. Florida is an impossible case to crack, and acquiring hundreds of low volume, rundown, old stores in bad locations is not the way to do it.
No doubt, Publix is a brute force in Florida. Outside of Florida, they're just another choice. Their concentration outside the state is about 1/4 of what it is inside, because they face more competition than the battered Winn Dixie and the 3 remaining stores of Albertsafeway.

The notion that Albertsons may be gearing up to buy Southeastern Grocers, or Winn Dixie at the very least, is plausible. Nobody thought any company wanted Safeway, but Albertsons fell for the bait. I wouldn't put it past them to go for a known name like WD, no matter how bruised and beaten they are.
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