I will agree on your projection of the District of Columbia market supermarket participants. The futures of Shoppers and Farm Fresh are something to keep in mind if Supervalu decides to divest supermarkets in the mid-Atlantic United States. Publix expanding into the Hampton Roads will create competition for Kroger and Harris Teeter, but it may push either Farm Fresh and/or Food Lion out.architect wrote:In 5 years, I expect that the DC market will consist of the following:
1. Giant-Landover (with low-hanging stores closed)
2. Safeway (same as Giant, also depends on how Albertsons manages their marketing and pricing)
3. Harris Teeter (with increased store count)
4. Wegmans
5. Publix (will likely grow quickly, as the DC area is too far from their existing regions to make just a few stores work)
Food Lion will be completely gone due to the size of their stores alone, and Shoppers Food Warehouse will be hanging on by a thread, if even that.
Harris Teeter is not going anywhere. First, it is opening a distribution center in Caroline County, Virginia. It should support existing and additional stores. Second, it and Kroger have been competing directly against Publix in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina awhile.storewanderer wrote:I think one loser in DC will be Harris Teeter. With a lot of newer stores in what look to me like very high rent locations, and really not much special to offer other than some flashy looking stores, I think this chain is going to be in real trouble in light of a Publix expansion as it has elsewhere.
storewanderer wrote: I would also agree on looking at the origins of Food Lion... that is not a dead model, it is just too boring and simple for today's operators who keep wanting to change what they are doing if they don't get results in 10 seconds.
Small stores are just as effective as large stores. They can occupy smaller sites in grocery deserts where other chains pass because their large stores will not work. They can effectively serve customers with the necessities found in larger stores without having to meander throughout a large store. Publix's 29m (29,000 square feet) stores are highly effective.architect wrote: As far as Food Lion goes, they really need to find an identity for themselves in order to survive. Although small-format supermarkets are highly-successful right now, the chains which are doing well are either limited-selection, high volume (such as Aldi) or specialty (such as Trader Joe's). When shoppers go to one of these stores, they clearly know what to expect. On the other hand, Food Lion is currently competing with traditional supermarkets, which puts them at a clear disadvantage compared to other chains with better amenities and pricing (due to higher volumes). Personally, I think that their best bet is to take on an Aldi-type model, but differentiate their stores by selling a focused selection of name-brand products which are sold at a low price, high volume model.
Food Lion is a supermarket that has lagged behind successful participants Bi-Lo, Food City, Harris Teeter, Kroger, Ingle's, Publix and Walmart, and has initiated and halted so many many operating models and strategies it has closed stores, exited markets and have undergone many leadership changes. If Food Lion's stores were like Publix's smaller stores, they could be successful.
Food Lion has already tried and failed with limited assortment/discount grocery stores, Bottom Dollar Food.