Macy’s 2020

BillyGr
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by BillyGr » May 9th, 2020, 1:07 pm

klkla wrote:
May 7th, 2020, 7:22 pm
BillyGr wrote:
May 7th, 2020, 6:08 pm
I think you missed the point I was making. The actual known figure may be 5.8% BUT that figure may not actually be the correct number.

To get that "death rate" figure, they are taking the number of deaths and dividing by the number of people that are positive - for example, using a previously posted set of numbers, "988 cases and 35 deaths. So about a 3.5% death rate."

BUT, there have been many instances where this has been shown to have infected people with no symptoms showing, and they happen to get tested to confirm it (maybe linked to someone else). However, there are likely others that have the same scenario and never get tested, and at one point there were even places not testing those showing symptoms unless they got bad enough to go to the hospital.
Therefore, the total positive number is too low, and if that number were accurate (just say in this case there are another 988 people who are positive but not tested), then when you divide you get a death rate of around 1.75%, which is quite different.
You're missing the point. We use these statistics to compare how lethal Covid19 is compared to OTHER viruses. The other viruses we are comparing it too were measured in the same way against known cases. And using that comparison it is significantly more lethal than a normal flu and other viruses.

The 1.75% figure is 'voodoo statistics' and is a figure being made up with no statistical validation whatsoever.
Of course it is - I was demonstrating what COULD happen if the actual number of positive case was known (which, since it isn't there is no way to get that actual number).

The actual number of flu cases is most likely much more accurate, as anyone who had flu symptoms could be very easily confirmed as tests for that have always been available when needed (unlike this, where many places still have few available).

The other thing that plays in are the tests they are now doing to show people who had it and didn't know - a small random sampling done here in NY state (in many areas around the state) suggested that the number just in the state could be as large as the known number for the entire US is now, which would be a huge increase in the numbers that have had it, and would drop the percentage drastically.

Obviously we don't know for certain that is the case, but what is being pointed out is that people may be scared by whatever the current rate is if that is all they see, without understanding the potential flaws in the whole process.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by jamcool » May 9th, 2020, 11:51 pm

The problem is that you can test negative on a CV test today and be tested positive a day after.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by cjd » May 10th, 2020, 6:51 am

I think to a great extent there has been much "over-pessimism" toward every aspect of the corona-virus. I believe much of it has been in order to err on the side of caution. You cannot be too careful of the unknown, but you can not be careful enough.

Look at the original models - millions of deaths just in the US. That could still happen, but I think it's unlikely. Then Gov Cuomo requested huge numbers of ventilators, makeshift hospitals to be constructed and the USS Comfort came in to dock. Things have been very bad in NYC, no doubt, but a lot of these things were never used. I'm not faulting Cuomo, he was going on the extreme predictions and why would you not want to overestimate when lives are at stake?

Now we have doctors and other experts claiming this could last for 3-5 years at the rate it is now. I find that highly unlikely. No pandemic or outbreak in the nearer past has lasted anywhere close to that. The Spanish flu lasted from 1918-1920 but the tail end was after 1919 it was quite weak. Now hundreds of years ago things like the black plague lasted on and off for centuries but a lot of that was just the unknowns then of how it spread. It was finally stemmed from distancing and wearing face coverings. Ironic that people still debate whether masks do any good, and that distancing is some government conspiracy.

Like I said there seems to be a lot of "over-pessimism" toward this whole thing by the experts. I think most of it is a "cover your butt" reasoning. I think the varying death rates could be a similar result.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by veteran+ » May 10th, 2020, 7:59 am

Well said cjd!!!!

Perhaps the biggest factor absent in the past is the over 7.5 billion people on the planet and our world wide interconnectivity that does not work in our favor currently with this "killer".

Also (I hope I choose the right words) there may be more of our cherished "choice" (democracies of different types) around the world that allows people to do the wrong thing, endangering themselves and others.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla » May 10th, 2020, 12:43 pm

cjd wrote:
May 10th, 2020, 6:51 am
Look at the original models - millions of deaths just in the US. That could still happen, but I think it's unlikely.
The original models were based on us not doing anything. The Federal government's response to this epidemic so far would have produced those results if certain State Governors and City Mayors had not stepped up taken drastic actions. Those drastic actions saved countless lives.
Let's get back to work! Test. Trace. Isolate.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer » May 10th, 2020, 1:05 pm

klkla wrote:
May 10th, 2020, 12:43 pm
cjd wrote:
May 10th, 2020, 6:51 am
Look at the original models - millions of deaths just in the US. That could still happen, but I think it's unlikely.
The original models were based on us not doing anything. The Federal government's response to this epidemic so far would have produced those results if certain State Governors and City Mayors had not stepped up taken drastic actions. Those drastic actions saved countless lives.
Even the updated models seem to have been exaggerated.

And now going to the current situation, with 1/3 of these deaths in nursing homes... how many non-COVID deaths in those nursing homes happened? Compared to these months in a typical year... Or are all of the deaths in nursing homes getting coded as COVID-related the past few months? It is really tough to trust the numbers given they have financial incentives to assign COVID as the reason for deaths and then you have on the other extreme certain states are supposedly understanding COVID deaths in an effort to try to justify reopening.

We will see in a couple weeks how all this "reopening" impacts the situation.

And now we have high a fresh string of high profile Federal people who are in self quarantine over concerns with contracting the virus.

Of course, they have been continuing their lives, not social distancing, etc. while telling everyone else to put their lives on hold.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by veteran+ » May 11th, 2020, 5:16 am

So I have a question:

Some elected officials are deliberately under reporting covid19 cases to justify opening up their economy (money first over lives).

Some elected officials may be over reporting to build up their coffers.

Many officials are reporting as best they can in this fluid situation and some may be over reporting (better safe than sorry). They are still learning and often surprised by new findings.

What does it matter? <<< THE question

It is HERE!!!!

Conspiracy theories and the like are NOT going to make this go away. Pointing fingers will NOT save lives.

I'm trying to get my thinking around the idea of a robust economy and people falling like flies. It just doesn't make sense. Unless "some" believe that those that fall like flies will NOT be THEM. Those that die will be those "others"?

History tells us that it never works that way...............NEVER.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer » May 30th, 2020, 9:18 pm

I decided to go to Macy's today. The Reno Meadowood Mall is open but only certain entrances are open and about 20% of the stores within the mall are open. Basically all of the independent stores and many of the kiosks are open, while the majority of the chain stores are still closed. Some had signs saying they would open tomorrow, others opening other random days, some had no signs at all and mailing slips, etc. slipped through the gates that made it look like nobody had been there in two months.

The mall was quite dead. Most of the lights inside were out. Aeropostale was not open yet. This is a Simon Mall, isn't Simon one of the owners of that chain now? I would have thought if they mall reopened that store run by the mall owner would open.

In the mall, there were lines for people to get into Foot Locker and Forever 21. Foot Locker had a lot of people inside. Probably 25 people in the little space. Forever 21 did not have many people inside at all, maybe 15-20, and then a similar number waiting outside, so I don't know what they were doing (it is a large store about 20,000 square feet).

Now as to Macy's. The "last act" areas (clearance area that is NOT part of Backstage department) are on heavy markdown. Basically for private label items priced below $59.50 the new price is $4.96; private label items over that were mostly $9.96. Some branded items and coats were not part of that promotion but heavily marked down 80%+. The racks were a lot thinner than they were back in February when I was last there. The Backstage department had "extra 50% off all clearance items" and "extra 30% off" most other items. Kind of thin on items in some categories there. Macy's had more employees than customers in its store and was not exactly what I'd call well staffed. The only areas where anyone was buying anything were the last act and Backstage areas. Cosmetics and jewelry counters were particularly dead the 3 times I walked past them over a 1.5 hour period with no customers and at least a dozen employees.

It is going to be a long road back for the malls.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer » May 31st, 2020, 5:52 pm

Went back to Macy's today. Really really good deals all over the place in their "Last Act" sections (for long sleeved shirts of all types casual, sweater, button down, etc. specifically) including up in home (towels, pans, etc.). I figured I better go back today in case there are issues with the store overnight. This afternoon the store is so short staffed there was only one employee on the entire second floor of the store where the home/mattress section is. In a clothing area overheard an employee telling another their goal is only "half of plan" so "as long as we can get there at least we meet our goal." Not sure what "goal" they were referring to (sales, credit card sign ups, or something else).

The mall was a little busier and some stores that were open today were not open yesterday (Buckle for one). Noticed some food court places that were "CARD ONLY." JC Penney is still closed and there was a steady stream of people driving up to it and appearing interested in shopping there. What are they thinking? Maybe they don't care now that the current terrible management team that has literally done nothing has gotten their retention bonuses (at least that guy from Lowes added appliances which was a dumb move but added a little to the top line, and the Apple guy did those little "shops" within the stores and tried to fix the price strategy).

Also took a look at TJ Maxx in Reno- probably 500 cars in the lot and 40 people lined up outside waiting to get in (around 4 PM). Ross in the same center was also very busy not probably only 1/4 of the traffic of TJ Maxx. Burlington down the street had about 100 cars in the lot and a line of maybe 15 groups waiting out front to get in. The off price retailers seem to be really doing well in reopening. JC Penney being closed is no doubt missing out on a lot of potential sales.

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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by Brian Lutz » June 25th, 2020, 9:40 am

Macy';s just laid off 3,900 employees in their corporate offices:

https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/ ... takes-toll

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