Macy’s 2020

Predicting the demise of Sears & Kmart since 2017!
storewanderer
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer »

pseudo3d wrote: May 6th, 2020, 9:46 pm
veteran+ wrote: May 5th, 2020, 5:15 am Over dramatic?

You must be kidding, right?
I may be in the minority here, and I'm sure that I'll probably (certainly) be getting long, angry responses explaining why I am wrong, stupid, and possibly a misanthropic sociopath, but the answer is:

No. I am not kidding. I believe most of the posters in this thread are being far too overdramatic about COVID-19.
It is what it is at this point. It has stopped the economy (though the rural towns seem to be chugging along pretty similar to how they always have... aside from closing the few sit down restaurants and the haircut places, not much else is closed in those towns as they have fewer "non essential" businesses) in most major metro areas with dense populations, especially on the coasts. The travel industry is going to be gutted. The restaurant industry? How schooling is done in the future... the way businesses operate is going to be altered for a long time.

Did I mention how much I enjoy visiting rural towns these days?

I can't even imagine what it must be like to live in a major metro area on the east or west coast right now... nor am I going to go visit one to find out.

So whatever it takes to make people in these major metro areas comfortable again to go spend money and congregate is what is needed. That means the number of cases needs to decline. So you need more masks. You need more testing. A big segment of the population is very, very scared right now.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer »

klkla wrote: May 6th, 2020, 2:32 pm
jamcool wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:49 pm And you would trust the reliability of the tests?
Yes, of course the tests can be made reliable. There are some that already are. The government needs to use the Wartimes Powers Act and order the companies that make the reliable ones to produce more.
I am wondering if we have enough data yet to make truly reliable tests... then what happens when someone tests negative then catches it a few days later somehow? But you have to do something to relieve people's fears about this and try and get the economic activity moving again.

Is it like, if you haven't tested, you literally cannot even leave your house? I don't think there is a way to control the population to that point in the US. The population is very large and spread out and as governments deal with way less tax money coming in I don't see how they can "staff up" police, etc. to do this. When you have people pulling a gun when being told to wear a mask or going and wiping their nose on an employee when they are told to wear a mask, I don't know.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by veteran+ »

jamcool wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:49 pm And you would trust the reliability of the tests? And we may never have a vaccine-we don’t have one for HIV, and the yearly flu shot is 50% effective at best and it mutates every year. So we will have to deal with this as we had to deal with polio, measles, the Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, and every other virus outbreak in the past....quarantine the ill, close some places with little distancing (like theaters),and keep working.
And add to that, several cities and states officials do not report data uniformly and some are deliberately withholding and misrepresenting data (especially underreporting and mislabeling).
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by veteran+ »

pseudo3d wrote: May 6th, 2020, 9:46 pm
veteran+ wrote: May 5th, 2020, 5:15 am Over dramatic?

You must be kidding, right?
I may be in the minority here, and I'm sure that I'll probably (certainly) be getting long, angry responses explaining why I am wrong, stupid, and possibly a misanthropic sociopath, but the answer is:

No. I am not kidding. I believe most of the posters in this thread are being far too overdramatic about COVID-19.
Well, you are NOT stupid. I have known your posts for many many years!

This is bigger than we are allowed to know. Many deniers have paid the price (idiot beach goers, et al). Elected officials have politicized this because it is about money and looking good (ego).

This is about human life. I would be thankful for errors in OVER protection to save lives.

Many States will pay a high price for jumping forward. And I have heard many say, "oh well", that's life. Funny how that works because often and "coincidentally" the lives lost are the typical "unwanted".
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

This article written by a professor at University of Massachusetts explains how it is spread in different environments (including retail) and is very interesting:

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19 ... avoid-them
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by TW-Upstate NY »

veteran+ wrote: May 7th, 2020, 5:47 am
pseudo3d wrote: May 6th, 2020, 9:46 pm
veteran+ wrote: May 5th, 2020, 5:15 am Many States will pay a high price for jumping forward. And I have heard many say, "oh well", that's life. Funny how that works because often and "coincidentally" the lives lost are the typical "unwanted".
Couldn't agree more and I'll say this too-I have no intention of being collateral damage. And all this talk about rural areas being spared, I'll use my county as an example. Up until maybe the middle of last month, we had one confirmed case in a population of around 53,000. Right around then, numbers started going up a couple here and there. Last week, they jumped dramatically due to an outbreak in one of the three nursing homes in the county. Yesterday we went over 100 cases and matter of fact, we held the dubious distinction a week or two ago of the county having the fastest weekly percentage growth vs. population in the entire state. It's here and it ain't going away anytime soon. This administration needs to lose the "let them eat cake" mentality right now but it seems to be doing the opposite. I find it so ironic that none other than George W. Bush's administration was the one who established a working group to prepare for this kind of scenario. Seems they were so spooked by their absolute abysmal response to Hurricane Katrina that they moved forward with the idea. You know, we talk a lot here about the demise of some iconic retailers and how a lot of times they've been ruined by some huckster or some snake oil salesman trying to make a buck off of someone else's misfortune(yes Eddie Lampert-I'm talking to YOU!) but this time around we have the biggest con artist of all time whose inaction and lacakadasical approach to the problem will quite possibly result in pretty much the total destruction of retail as we know it.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by jamcool »

A lot of those retailers brought it on themselves... crappy service, styles that no one wants/can wear/ can afford, the same stuff in every store(Macy’s). It used to be every major city had its own landmark department store, not anymore.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by cjd »

IMO the Corona-Virus spread too quickly to be contained easily by testing or contact tracing (in many areas.) I agree with the president that tests aren't everything - you can test and get the virus right after.

Yes. there should have been more testing, more masks, more everything. But things take time, and we are getting there. We should have been early on, yes, but I think everyone (for the most part) is doing the best they can in a situation like this. I'm sick of the political squabbling from both sides of the aisle.

Unfortunately I think we're at the point the virus has to run its course. Hopefully we have a vaccine to help end this sooner and treatments that work.

Do I think states are moving too fast? Yes. I'm actually surprised how fast things started moving from where they were a few weeks ago. I was expecting at least another 30-60 days before anything started opening up, honestly.

Am I going out now that things are opening? Probably not. I haven't been to any retail places or restaurants in over a month. DIdn't feel safe.

But I also realize there was no way we could shut down the economy for two years or however long the doctors were expecting. There is a 'safer' way to do this but people are acting dumb and just going out with no masks and getting right near each other. Just this week restaurants opened at 25% capacity here in FL and there was one in Tampa where people were just crowding around outside on the street with no masks on. Code enforcement had to tell them to leave and the restaurant decided to shut down because it didn't feel it could operate with safe measures in place.

Gyms, hair and nail salons should not reopen. IMO Can't do social distancing. Do I think shop owners who defy should go to jail? No, I think it's good they have been released.

Also very tired of all the conspiracy theories about vaccines being bad, or that it's a planned pandemic, etc.

Lastly, can we stop with the ads with "in these unprecedented times" or "these uncertain times." Does that really help us feel better, or really add anything good? Oh, and these aren't unprecedented times. This is not the first pandemic. In most of our lifetimes, yes. In the modern twitter, facebook, youtube world? Yes.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by BillyGr »

klkla wrote: May 6th, 2020, 2:28 pm
BillyGr wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:49 pm The reason it would be relevant is that people will be much more concerned about something with a higher rate of deaths (or other serious outcomes). So, when it is announced as a high rate, people will be more unlikely to want to go out to places than they should be if the actual rate is lower.
The actual rate is not lower. Making a up a lower figure (IE: lying to the population about the severity of the virus) is much more dangerous than telling the truth.

As of last Sunday the actual death rate was 5.8% and that is the only figure that should be reported. People need to know the actual danger of this virus and act accordingly.

The key to reopening the economy isn't lying to people so they will take needless risks to their own health and the health of others.
I think you missed the point I was making. The actual known figure may be 5.8% BUT that figure may not actually be the correct number.

To get that "death rate" figure, they are taking the number of deaths and dividing by the number of people that are positive - for example, using a previously posted set of numbers, "988 cases and 35 deaths. So about a 3.5% death rate."

BUT, there have been many instances where this has been shown to have infected people with no symptoms showing, and they happen to get tested to confirm it (maybe linked to someone else). However, there are likely others that have the same scenario and never get tested, and at one point there were even places not testing those showing symptoms unless they got bad enough to go to the hospital.
Therefore, the total positive number is too low, and if that number were accurate (just say in this case there are another 988 people who are positive but not tested), then when you divide you get a death rate of around 1.75%, which is quite different.
cjd wrote: May 7th, 2020, 3:19 pm Gyms, hair and nail salons should not reopen. IMO Can't do social distancing. Do I think shop owners who defy should go to jail? No, I think it's good they have been released.
The rest maybe not so much, but hair places would need to at some point, as many can't cut their own and no one (that I know of) knows how to slow the rate hair grows (unlike the medicines to make it grow more for those losing hair).

One shot that was shown (not certain that it was even from the US, but in any case) had the barber wearing the plastic full face shield - that (and possibly a mask) puts them in a fairly similar setup to a cashier/customer with the plastic wall between them and that seems to work reasonably well.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

BillyGr wrote: May 7th, 2020, 6:08 pmI think you missed the point I was making. The actual known figure may be 5.8% BUT that figure may not actually be the correct number.

To get that "death rate" figure, they are taking the number of deaths and dividing by the number of people that are positive - for example, using a previously posted set of numbers, "988 cases and 35 deaths. So about a 3.5% death rate."

BUT, there have been many instances where this has been shown to have infected people with no symptoms showing, and they happen to get tested to confirm it (maybe linked to someone else). However, there are likely others that have the same scenario and never get tested, and at one point there were even places not testing those showing symptoms unless they got bad enough to go to the hospital.
Therefore, the total positive number is too low, and if that number were accurate (just say in this case there are another 988 people who are positive but not tested), then when you divide you get a death rate of around 1.75%, which is quite different.
You're missing the point. We use these statistics to compare how lethal Covid19 is compared to OTHER viruses. The other viruses we are comparing it too were measured in the same way against known cases. And using that comparison it is significantly more lethal than a normal flu and other viruses.

The 1.75% figure is 'voodoo statistics' and is a figure being made up with no statistical validation whatsoever.
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