Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Romr123 »

Their acquisitions (Murray's Cheese, Vitacost) are mixed bags as well---Murray's Cheese makes a lot of sense (Swiss-American out of St. Louis fills up a lot of cheese islands in the industry---Murray's is nice and less generic).

Vitacost--meh. They seem to have a direct fulfillment setup which might have been useful up to now for reeeallly low-volume type things, and perhaps can be integrated with the Ocado setup either to feed individual items into Ocado or to just entirely divert low volume/high value/lightweight items away from that and fulfill them directly through UPS/USPS (example: spices. Maybe have a single SKU at the stores, Ocado can handle 4 oz jars of garlic salt, and Vitacost mails out everything else). When I want saffron, for example, I'm happy, if I ran out, to get a $5 packet (enough for my immediate recipe at the store), and am perfectly happy to have more than that sent to arrive in a day or so (or add it to the Costco/spice store/Penzey's list).
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Bagels »

TempoNick wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 9:57 pm
retailfanmitchell019 wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 9:30 pm
Kroger (and Walmart) also have some trouble competing against Albertsons/Vons dominance in San Diego.
Kroger says they have top two market share in San Diego according to their fact book.
In 2019: Albertsons/Vons = 22.5%, Walmart = 14%, Ralphs/F4L = 11.3%

Walmart opened its first San Diego SuperCenter in 2012 and had less than half a percentage of market share before that.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by retailfanmitchell019 »

Bagels wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 3:49 pm Farmer Jack was a very profitable grocery store in the 1990s; it failed because rather than reinvesting some of the profits back into the stores, A&P put the profits into its failing NE operations. Investors were pulling for Safeway to dominate much of the Midwest, and after the chain overpaid for Dominick's, A&P thought it could command a high price for Farmer Jack (and Kohls). But Safeway lost interest in the Midwest, likely after it struggled to digest Dominick's, and Farmer Jack quickly fell to despair, garnering a horrible reputation. It was that poor reputation that ultimately killed off Farmer Jack -- Kroger maintained a large number of neglected stores in the area that were among the last in the chain to be renovated. Probably why Kroger's been replacing so many Detroit-area stores, when new construction is otherwise a rarity for the chain.
So are you saying that Safeway was interested in acquiring Farmer Jack at the time? Was Albertsons interested also?
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Bagels »

retailfanmitchell019 wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 2:32 pm
Bagels wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 3:49 pm Farmer Jack was a very profitable grocery store in the 1990s; it failed because rather than reinvesting some of the profits back into the stores, A&P put the profits into its failing NE operations. Investors were pulling for Safeway to dominate much of the Midwest, and after the chain overpaid for Dominick's, A&P thought it could command a high price for Farmer Jack (and Kohls). But Safeway lost interest in the Midwest, likely after it struggled to digest Dominick's, and Farmer Jack quickly fell to despair, garnering a horrible reputation. It was that poor reputation that ultimately killed off Farmer Jack -- Kroger maintained a large number of neglected stores in the area that were among the last in the chain to be renovated. Probably why Kroger's been replacing so many Detroit-area stores, when new construction is otherwise a rarity for the chain.
So are you saying that Safeway was interested in acquiring Farmer Jack at the time? Was Albertsons interested also?
Yes. Safeway believed domestic competition was weakest in the Midwest and thought that if it controlled Chicago & Detroit, it could eventually expand outward and dominate the territory. After Safeway paid a king's ransom for Dominick's, A&P gutted Farmer Jack in preparation of its payday. They suspended virtually all capital projects, let go of the local management team and made preparations to sell off a block of stores within Detroit's inner-ring suburbs (older stores that would be undesirable to Safeway, but otherwise profitable). But Safeway shifted focus and went after Texas (Randalls/Tom Thumb) instead.

I was fortunate to have a conversation with Dennis Edison (who helped run Farmer Jack before joining Spartan and retiring as CEO). He blamed the chain's demise largely on A&P's financial woes. In 1997, Farmer Jack announced it would build 13 new stores, but only three broke ground. Kroger eventually took over eight spots (and an independent grocer took one; one planned shopping center wasn't built). Had A&P continued to re-invest Farmer Jack's profits back into the operation, he believed the chain would still be around (maybe as Spartan Stores).

Farmer Jack had one of the largest collapses in history, shedding over 20 points market share in less than two or three years.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by DFWRetaileWatcher »

Bagels wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 3:49 pm In 2010, Publix surpassed Kroger as the market share leader in Atlanta, but Kroger quickly regained the title back and has maintained it since. But both chains have since lost market share to Walmart. I realize that Kroger isn't the fan favorite on here, but they generally run excellent stores with competitive pricing and great sales pricing, which is unquestionably the reason Publix didn't stay on top in Atlanta long.
TempoNick wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 10:40 am
DFWRetaileWatcher wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 8:48 am
The massive economic downturn in the 2000s in Michigan didn't help Farmer Jack either. A lot of regional Detroit-based chains folded during that period.

Farmer Jack also struggled because Walmart suddenly underwent a massive expansion at the time (mainly to capitalize on Kmart's implosion, although taking out FJ too was also nice collateral damage for them), converting many of their general stores to Supercenters, and Kroger was actively renovating many of their locations while a lot of Farmer Jack stores were in older / crumbling buildings.
Everything you say is true, but Kroger is still the survivor. They were obviously doing things right and many things very well in order to end up being the sole survivor.

Kroger has its deficiencies, just like everybody else. (I do not care for their meats and that's what they used to be known for.) But when you compare them to most of what else is out there, it's obvious they deserve to be King of the Hill. Their old slogan, which they never should have gotten rid of, says it best: Right Store, Right Price.
Farmer Jack was a very profitable grocery store in the 1990s; it failed because rather than reinvesting some of the profits back into the stores, A&P put the profits into its failing NE operations. Investors were pulling for Safeway to dominate much of the Midwest, and after the chain overpaid for Dominick's, A&P thought it could command a high price for Farmer Jack (and Kohls). But Safeway lost interest in the Midwest, likely after it struggled to digest Dominick's, and Farmer Jack quickly fell to despair, garnering a horrible reputation. It was that poor reputation that ultimately killed off Farmer Jack -- Kroger maintained a large number of neglected stores in the area that were among the last in the chain to be renovated. Probably why Kroger's been replacing so many Detroit-area stores, when new construction is otherwise a rarity for the chain.

Walmart was a nonfactor - its first Supercenters opened in 2008 (FJ was defunct by 2007).
Are you able to provide a source for your Walmart claim?

Granted, it doesn't specifically mention the Detroit area, but the below article from 2004 confirms there were already 30 Supercenters in the state and the rapid expansion of more Supercenters was underway.

That's more in line with how I remember it.

https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive ... rs-collide
Last edited by DFWRetaileWatcher on September 23rd, 2021, 7:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by DFWRetaileWatcher »

arizonaguy wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 5:17 pm
BatteryMill wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 5:15 pm
Bagels wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 3:49 pm In 2010, Publix surpassed Kroger as the market share leader in Atlanta, but Kroger quickly regained the title back and has maintained it since. But both chains have since lost market share to Walmart. I realize that Kroger isn't the fan favorite on here, but they generally run excellent stores with competitive pricing and great sales pricing, which is unquestionably the reason Publix didn't stay on top in Atlanta long.

Farmer Jack was a very profitable grocery store in the 1990s; it failed because rather than reinvesting some of the profits back into the stores, A&P put the profits into its failing NE operations. Investors were pulling for Safeway to dominate much of the Midwest, and after the chain overpaid for Dominick's, A&P thought it could command a high price for Farmer Jack (and Kohls). But Safeway lost interest in the Midwest, likely after it struggled to digest Dominick's, and Farmer Jack quickly fell to despair, garnering a horrible reputation. It was that poor reputation that ultimately killed off Farmer Jack -- Kroger maintained a large number of neglected stores in the area that were among the last in the chain to be renovated. Probably why Kroger's been replacing so many Detroit-area stores, when new construction is otherwise a rarity for the chain.

Walmart was a nonfactor - its first Supercenters opened in 2008 (FJ was defunct by 2007).
Walmart's Supercenters were late to Detroit... what were other such examples? They took until 2009 to introduce the D.C. metro area to these stores.
They were late to Detroit because Meijer had an extensive fleet of supercenters in Detroit and Kmart (which was Detroit based) had the GM market cornered with stores everywhere.

Even today Meijer has 2-3 times the number of locations in Metro Detroit as Walmart.

Michigan was also historically very pro union (it's much less so now) and there was significant opposition to a non-union shop (Walmart) versus Meijer (which is union).
Just doing a quick unscientific measure on Google Maps, Walmart has ~19 Supercenters in Metro Detroit and Meijer has ~23 stores.

So yes, Meijer has more stores, but the gap doesn't seem to be wide (let alone 2-3 times).

EDIT: I also liken Michigan's infatuation over Meijer with Texas's infatuation over H-E-B. In Houston for example, Walmart has had a harder time competing because of the fierce hometown loyalty Texans have for a locally-based chain.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by Bagels »

DFWRetaileWatcher wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 7:35 pm Are you able to provide a source for your Walmart claim?

Grantes, it doesn't specifically mention the Detroit area, but the below article from 2004 confirms there were already 30 Supercenters in the state and the rapid expansion of more Supercenters was ongoing.

That's more in line with how I remember it.

https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive ... rs-collide
Walmart entered rural Michigan in 1990. It opened its first Metro Detroit location in 1996 in Auburn Hills (a non-Supercenter, although such stores were already open elsewhere in the state), with additional stores opening in 1998 onward. Its first Metro Detroit Supercenters opened in 2008, with new build stores in Rochester Hills (replacing Auburn Hills) and Livonia (replacing a Livonia location) opening simultaneously. Walmart fairly quickly either opened replacement stores or expanded existing stores into Supercenters (I believe only one location was not expanded).

Here's a listing of Walmart's entire store fleet, with opening dates:
https://github.com/cjbayesian/walmart/b ... enings.csv
DFWRetaileWatcher wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 7:41 pm
Just doing a quick unscientific measure on Google Maps, Walmart has ~19 Supercenters in Metro Detroit and Meijer has ~23 stores.

So yes, Meijer has more stores, but the gap doesn't seem to be wide (let alone 2-3 times).

EDIT: I also liken Michigan's infatuation over Meijer with Texas's infatuation over H-E-B. In Houston for example, Walmart has had a harder time competing because of the fierce hometown loyalty Texans have for a locally-based chain.
That number seems very low for Meijer, especially considering they've opened two stores in Detroit, two small format "Farmers Markets" in Detroit and Royal Oak, and smaller format stores to supplement full size stores in places like Rochester Hills (adjacent to Walmart, of all places). They're planning a grocery-only format, with the first location scheduled to open next year in Lake Orion.

2020 Metro Detroit Market Share:
Kroger - 32%
Meijer - 20%
Walmart - 14%

2015 Metro Detroit Market Share:
Kroger - 28%
Meijer - 25%
Walmart - 13%

So basically, Kroger's picked up 5 points from Meijer in the past five years.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by retailfanmitchell019 »

Bagels wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 3:28 pm
Yes. Safeway believed domestic competition was weakest in the Midwest and thought that if it controlled Chicago & Detroit, it could eventually expand outward and dominate the territory. After Safeway paid a king's ransom for Dominick's, A&P gutted Farmer Jack in preparation of its payday. They suspended virtually all capital projects, let go of the local management team and made preparations to sell off a block of stores within Detroit's inner-ring suburbs (older stores that would be undesirable to Safeway, but otherwise profitable). But Safeway shifted focus and went after Texas (Randalls/Tom Thumb) instead..
Albertsons also wanted to dominate the Midwest during the 1990's. They expanded into Oklahoma, Kansas and then Iowa (via acquisition of Super One Foods) and Missouri (Smitty's). They already had a sizeable presence in Omaha.
Around that time, Albertsons was targeting St Louis and Kansas City for expansion (they wanted Schnucks failed KC stores). They considered acquiring Dominick's before Safeway did.
Albertsons was actually very close to acquiring Rainbow Foods (Minnesota) in 2000 when Fleming put them on the sale block.
https://mtstandard.com/news/state-and-r ... 27297.html
Ultimately, Albertsons had bigger priorities in 2000 (digesting Lucky).

Kroger, Ahold, Supervalu, KKR, and even Sainsbury's also wanted Dominick's back then.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by arizonaguy »

Bagels wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 3:28 pm
retailfanmitchell019 wrote: September 23rd, 2021, 2:32 pm
Bagels wrote: September 22nd, 2021, 3:49 pm Farmer Jack was a very profitable grocery store in the 1990s; it failed because rather than reinvesting some of the profits back into the stores, A&P put the profits into its failing NE operations. Investors were pulling for Safeway to dominate much of the Midwest, and after the chain overpaid for Dominick's, A&P thought it could command a high price for Farmer Jack (and Kohls). But Safeway lost interest in the Midwest, likely after it struggled to digest Dominick's, and Farmer Jack quickly fell to despair, garnering a horrible reputation. It was that poor reputation that ultimately killed off Farmer Jack -- Kroger maintained a large number of neglected stores in the area that were among the last in the chain to be renovated. Probably why Kroger's been replacing so many Detroit-area stores, when new construction is otherwise a rarity for the chain.
So are you saying that Safeway was interested in acquiring Farmer Jack at the time? Was Albertsons interested also?
Yes. Safeway believed domestic competition was weakest in the Midwest and thought that if it controlled Chicago & Detroit, it could eventually expand outward and dominate the territory. After Safeway paid a king's ransom for Dominick's, A&P gutted Farmer Jack in preparation of its payday. They suspended virtually all capital projects, let go of the local management team and made preparations to sell off a block of stores within Detroit's inner-ring suburbs (older stores that would be undesirable to Safeway, but otherwise profitable). But Safeway shifted focus and went after Texas (Randalls/Tom Thumb) instead.

I was fortunate to have a conversation with Dennis Edison (who helped run Farmer Jack before joining Spartan and retiring as CEO). He blamed the chain's demise largely on A&P's financial woes. In 1997, Farmer Jack announced it would build 13 new stores, but only three broke ground. Kroger eventually took over eight spots (and an independent grocer took one; one planned shopping center wasn't built). Had A&P continued to re-invest Farmer Jack's profits back into the operation, he believed the chain would still be around (maybe as Spartan Stores).

Farmer Jack had one of the largest collapses in history, shedding over 20 points market share in less than two or three years.
Not to derail this topic too much but Farmer Jack would've been the perfect fit for Safeway.

Farmer Jack was pretty much you're typical corporately owned supermarket chain.

It wasn't a family owned Italian derived chain (Dominic's, Genuardi's).

It wasn't an upscale chain or have stores that were much larger than a typical Safeway (Tom Thumb, Simon David).

It was simply the dominant chain with locations pretty much everywhere (and a 27.5% market share in 2001) that operated stores of all varying sizes, ages, conditions, and demographics but wasn't really known for anything special other than an annoying jingle that anyone who grew up or lived in the Detroit area knew.

A club card wouldn't have been an issue at Farmer Jack as they'd been running the Bonus Savings Club program for a long time.

A change from America's Choice to Safeway private labels wouldn't have caused any issues.

As long as Safeway kept Eight O'Clock coffee, had decent quality perishables, and didn't get pricing too out of whack Safeway could've actually had an acquisition in the Midwest that wasn't an epic failure and actually had one market where it would actually be #1 over Kroger.
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Re: Publix entering Louisville, KY in 2023

Post by jamcool »

Actually Farmer Jack, for some unknown reason, bought Safeway’s Utah operation in the early 80s-and was unsuccessful.
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