Macy’s 2020

Predicting the demise of Sears & Kmart since 2017!
klkla
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

storewanderer wrote: May 4th, 2020, 10:10 pm That 5.8% will be an ever-changing figure.

For instance in my county there are currently 988 cases and 35 deaths. So about a 3.5% death rate. Now break it down further. 19 of those 35 deaths are linked to an outbreak at a single nursing home in Reno. 86 of those 988 cases came out of that nursing home. So less than 10% of cases in Reno originated in a single building in Reno and account for more than 50% of the deaths. I think similar situations play out across the country. So the percentages are what they are, but for the everyday person on the street who catches this virus, they do not have a 3.5% death rate. For the person stuck in a nursing home who catches the virus they have a 50% death rate. Yikes.
Yes, it will be an ever changing thing. I'm not sure why that is relevant, though. That doesn't change the fact that as of last Sunday it was 5.8%. Simple math will give you the correct answer every time. 4012 and conservative media have been propagating a lie that the mortality rate is 1.4%. That is simply not true and not even close to true.

I'm also disturbed that those same sources of 'information' seem to be saying that the cases in nursing homes shouldn't be counted or are not important because those victims are old and would presumably die anyways. Not all patients in nursing homes die there. More important, it is inhumane to treat our elderly as though their lives don't matter.

It also doesn't take into account that at many nursing homes the workers account for a large percentage of cases, often the majority. And the death rate is substantially more than 5.8% for those workers.
storewanderer
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by storewanderer »

klkla wrote: May 5th, 2020, 12:09 pm

Yes, it will be an ever changing thing. I'm not sure why that is relevant, though. That doesn't change the fact that as of last Sunday it was 5.8%. Simple math will give you the correct answer every time. 4012 and conservative media have been propagating a lie that the mortality rate is 1.4%. That is simply not true and not even close to true.

I'm also disturbed that those same sources of 'information' seem to be saying that the cases in nursing homes shouldn't be counted or are not important because those victims are old and would presumably die anyways. Not all patients in nursing homes die there. More important, it is inhumane to treat our elderly as though their lives don't matter.

It also doesn't take into account that at many nursing homes the workers account for a large percentage of cases, often the majority. And the death rate is substantially more than 5.8% for those workers.
The numbers are absolutely the numbers, in total. Cases in facilities are cases and should be counted toward the total. But for the purpose of my personal risk analysis I do consider those cases concentrated in specific facilities when I make the decision of how much risk I am willing to take going out places and when. I'm thinking solely of risk factor, as it pertains to re-opening of stores like Macy's and if I'd be scared to go into one of them or not...

If the cases are, at this time, concentrated in certain "hot spot" business types, it does make a difference if you are weighing the odds of contracting this virus if you go shop at the mall. The concern I continue to have is if you open more places where people congregate that are poorly ventilated such as these facilities that you may have a lot more "hot spots."

Read also a meat plant tested all employees and something like 15% of its 800 employees tested positive but had no symptoms... the only reason everyone was tested was due to the meat plant trying to prevent an outbreak... who knows how many people have had this thing without symptoms without being tested. Maybe at this point they need to come up with a test kit and mail test kits to everyone. They can mail us all ballots, they can mail us all a census, I don't know.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by Alpha8472 »

Coronavirus is very difficult to transmit outdoors. Flea markets in California have reopened. The problem with Macy's is that their stores are indoors and that is where the disease can transmit easily. Perhaps if they do a parking lot sale it would draw customers.

Sunlight kills the virus. Set up a fenced area with racks of clothes and then move the merchandise back in at closing time.

Target has rolling cash registers that take credit cards. Macy's can do something similar. If people want to pay by cash they could allow a limited number of people in to pay. Keep the line outdoors and only come inside when it is your turn to pay.
Super S
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by Super S »

Alpha8472 wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:09 am Coronavirus is very difficult to transmit outdoors. Flea markets in California have reopened. The problem with Macy's is that their stores are indoors and that is where the disease can transmit easily. Perhaps if they do a parking lot sale it would draw customers.

Sunlight kills the virus. Set up a fenced area with racks of clothes and then move the merchandise back in at closing time.

Target has rolling cash registers that take credit cards. Macy's can do something similar. If people want to pay by cash they could allow a limited number of people in to pay. Keep the line outdoors and only come inside when it is your turn to pay.
That isn't always feasible when weather doesn't cooperate, plus many Macy's stores are located in multi-story malls where, in some cases, a good portion of the outside is surrounded by a parking garage. The layout of some of the malls is not conducive to conducting a parking lot sale, Lloyd Center comes to mind.
klkla
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

storewanderer wrote: May 5th, 2020, 11:54 pm Read also a meat plant tested all employees and something like 15% of its 800 employees tested positive but had no symptoms... the only reason everyone was tested was due to the meat plant trying to prevent an outbreak... who knows how many people have had this thing without symptoms without being tested. Maybe at this point they need to come up with a test kit and mail test kits to everyone. They can mail us all ballots, they can mail us all a census, I don't know.
You hit the nail on the head. As you know, the availability of testing has been one of the biggest problems. There was already a plan in place that had the protocols for handling this type of event but 4012 removed the person in charge last fall for some reason.

The plan that was in place would have done mass testing and contact tracing at the initial outbreak of each hotspot, which would have helped to curtail the spread in the first place. Current estimates are that we need to be doing 20-35 million tests a week but we're barely at 2 million.

Company's like Macys are not going to be able to reopen in a meaningful way until we improve testing, which would take an executive order using the Wartime Powers Act to get to the level where we need to be in a shorter period of time. Would you try on clothes right now? I wouldn't.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by BillyGr »

klkla wrote: May 5th, 2020, 12:09 pm Yes, it will be an ever changing thing. I'm not sure why that is relevant, though. That doesn't change the fact that as of last Sunday it was 5.8%. Simple math will give you the correct answer every time. 4012 and conservative media have been propagating a lie that the mortality rate is 1.4%. That is simply not true and not even close to true.
The reason it would be relevant is that people will be much more concerned about something with a higher rate of deaths (or other serious outcomes). So, when it is announced as a high rate, people will be more unlikely to want to go out to places than they should be if the actual rate is lower.

The issue has been that we know how many people have died (wherever that occurred) or were in the hospital, but we don't know how many may have had the virus with no problems whatsoever (as they were unaware and wouldn't likely be tested anyway).
Thus, any percentage that is mentioned can not be correct, as they are dividing with a smaller total number than they should be, which makes the percentage higher. So what we are seeing is a maximum possible percentage, but the actual one is undoubtedly lower, just that no one knows how much (though if the small random samplings for antibodies that were done in a place like NYC are anywhere near true, showing about 20% had them there could be more people that have been infected just in NYC than the actual known numbers for the whole country - so it could be that far of a magnitude off - or not).
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by jamcool »

And you would trust the reliability of the tests? And we may never have a vaccine-we don’t have one for HIV, and the yearly flu shot is 50% effective at best and it mutates every year. So we will have to deal with this as we had to deal with polio, measles, the Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, and every other virus outbreak in the past....quarantine the ill, close some places with little distancing (like theaters),and keep working.
klkla
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

BillyGr wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:49 pm The reason it would be relevant is that people will be much more concerned about something with a higher rate of deaths (or other serious outcomes). So, when it is announced as a high rate, people will be more unlikely to want to go out to places than they should be if the actual rate is lower.
The actual rate is not lower. Making a up a lower figure (IE: lying to the population about the severity of the virus) is much more dangerous than telling the truth.

As of last Sunday the actual death rate was 5.8% and that is the only figure that should be reported. People need to know the actual danger of this virus and act accordingly.

The key to reopening the economy isn't lying to people so they will take needless risks to their own health and the health of others. It's getting the testing ramped up. That is the only way we are going to get the economy back on track. In other pandemics there is usually a second wave that is bigger than the first and that will be even worse for the economy if it happens again with Covid19.

Want to get Macy's reopened? There are three things we need to do in order to make that happen:
1 - Testing
2 - More testing
3 - Even more testing
klkla
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by klkla »

jamcool wrote: May 6th, 2020, 1:49 pm And you would trust the reliability of the tests?
Yes, of course the tests can be made reliable. There are some that already are. The government needs to use the Wartimes Powers Act and order the companies that make the reliable ones to produce more.
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Re: Macy’s 2020

Post by pseudo3d »

veteran+ wrote: May 5th, 2020, 5:15 am Over dramatic?

You must be kidding, right?
I may be in the minority here, and I'm sure that I'll probably (certainly) be getting long, angry responses explaining why I am wrong, stupid, and possibly a misanthropic sociopath, but the answer is:

No. I am not kidding. I believe most of the posters in this thread are being far too overdramatic about COVID-19.
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